News From The Grain Floor 10/01/15

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Start of a new month and a new quarter.

Census crush data comes out today after being discontinued four years ago. The crush data will cover May-August crush. The report comes out at 2 pm CST. Based on Reuters survey:

  • August crush average estimate is 142.0 MB , range of estimates 140.9-142.7 MB vs. NOPA August crush estimate of 135.304 MB

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 ½ at 894 ½
  • CZ down a ¼ at 387 ½
  • WZ up 3 ½ at 516 ¼
  • KC WZ up 3 ¾ at 505 ½
  • MWZ up 4 ½ at 531 ½
  • SMZ down 1.50 at 307.50
  • BOZ up 43 at 2777

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,807
  • CZ 13,446
  • WZ 10,741
  • KC WZ 1,273
  • MWZ 343
  • SMZ 6,186
  • BOZ 12,831

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 1,524
  • Wheat 2,331
  • Beans 3,274
  • Meal 540
  • Bean oil 52

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

40

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

10

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

15-Sep

22-Sep

to COT

23-Sep

24-Sep

25-Sep

28-Sep

29-Sep

30-Sep

Estimate

Corn

659

-1375

-2034

3000

-2000

8000

-6000

5000

-8000

-1375

Wheat

-83660

-78152

5508

7000

-4000

4000

-3000

0

7000

-67152

Soybeans

-41433

-57866

-16433

-2000

5000

12000

-7000

6000

7000

-36866

Soymeal

44863

27963

-16900

-4000

0

4000

-3000

2000

3000

29963

Soyoil

-30717

-32460

-1743

2000

5000

6000

-6000

4000

-3000

-24460

News

Dec Euro down .0002 at 1.1177

China’s Golden Week started today. China markets will be closed from today through Wednesday October 7th

Nikkei closes up 1.92%

  • Worst 3rd quarter for Nikkei in over five years

Hang Seng markets closed for holiday

Shanghai Index closed for holiday

Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%. Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on October 19th

September final manufacturing PMIs came out last night/ this morning

  • China official at 49.8, expecting 49.6, vs. August official final of 49.7
  • China Caixin/Markit at 47.2 (lowest since March 2009) vs. flash of 47.0 and vs. August Caixin final of 47.3
  • Euro zone at 53.4 vs. flash of 53.9 and vs. August final of 53.9
  • German at 52.3 vs. flash of 52.5 and vs. August final of 53.3
  • France at 50.6 vs. flash of 50.4 and vs. August final of 48.3
  • UK Markit at 51.5 vs. August final of 51.6
  • Greece at 43.3 vs. August final of 39.1
  • Russia at 49.1 vs. August final of 47.9

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +10K to 277K expecting 271K

China grain markets closed for holiday

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 39.

Japan bought 128,489 tons of food wheat for Oct-Nov shipment . Breakdown

  • 18,510 tons of US western white wheat
  • 17,220 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 27,530 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 32,714 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 32,515 tons of Australian white wheat

Oman canceled tender for 60,000 tons of Russian wheat for Nov shipment, due to high prices

Russia Ag Min proposes to raise prices for state restocking program by 1,000 Roubles on average

Russia Prime Min estimated 2015 grain crop at 100.0 MMT vs. 105.0 MMT in 2014

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat –  ‘15/16 77,100 tons (expecting 250-450,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘15/16 748,200 tons ‘16/17 53,100 tons (expecting 700-900,000 tons)
  • Beans –  ‘15/16 2,506,000 tons ‘16/17 4,400 tons (expecting 1.3-1.7 million tons)
  • Meal – ‘14/15 17,600 ‘15/16 246,400 tons (expecting 100-275,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘14/15 -7,900 ‘15/16 32,500 tons (expecting 0-80,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – : Net sales of 77,100 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016–a marketing-year low–were down 73 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Indonesia (73,200 MT, including 67,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Brazil (18,700 MT, including 17,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (6,300 MT), Liberia (6,000 MT, switched from Nigeria), China (5,300 MT), and Mexico (4,400 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (39,000 MT), Nigeria (4,700 MT), and Thailand (4,100 MT). Exports of 564,400 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior-4 week average. The primary destinations were China (115,500 MT), South Korea (82,100 MT), Nigeria (75,200 MT), Indonesia (73,700 MT), Japan (52,700 MT), and Thailand (34,900 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 748,200 MT for 2015/2016 were up 76 percent from the previous week. Increases reported for Mexico (638,600 MT, including 23,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,400 MT), Egypt (68,700 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (42,200 MT, including 25,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,800 MT), Guatemala (41,100 MT), and Venezuela (29,900 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from Panama and decreases of 100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (80,800 MT) and Panama (30,000 MT). Net sales of 53,100 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Panama (51,900 MT) and Honduras (1,200 MT). Exports of 813,800 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week. The primary destinations were Mexico (233,200 MT), Japan (206,400 MT), Colombia (111,700 MT), Egypt (68,700 MT), Venezuela (59,900 MT), Peru (30,500 MT), and Taiwan (29,300 MT)
  • Beans – Net sales of 2,506,000 MT for 2015/2016, up noticeably from the previous week, were primarily for China (1,178,400 MT, including 59,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,500 MT), unknown destinations (826,800 MT), Germany (150,100 MT), the Netherlands (85,700 MT, including 78,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (85,200 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (50,800 MT), and Mexico (42,500 MT). Net sales of 4,400 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Panama. Exports of 814,900 MT were primarily to China (318,400 MT), Germany (150,100 MT), Mexico (119,100 MT), the Netherlands (85,700 MT), Indonesia (76,300 MT), and Costa Rica (16,500 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 17,600 MT for 2014/2015 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (10,800 MT), Colombia (6,500 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), El Salvador (6,100 MT, including 5,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (5,300 MT), and Canada (3,600 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (10,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), and Burma (400 MT). Net sales of 246,400 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Mexico (112,600 MT, including 110,400 MT late reporting), Panama (56,600 MT), unknown destinations (24,000 MT), and Peru (16,400 MT). Decreases were reported for Nicaragua (500 MT). Exports of 179,900 MT were up 99 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (47,600 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT), Mexico (27,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (24,800 MT), Colombia (16,300 MT), and Canada (11,700 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales reductions of 7,900 MT for 2014/2015–a marketing-year low–were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (1,900 MT) and Canada (200 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (10,000 MT). Net sales of 32,500 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Peru (19,000 MT), unknown destinations (12,000 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT). Exports of 2,800 MT were down 89 percent from the previous week and 81 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (2,400 MT) and Canada (300 MT).

Deliveries

  • Soy meal 110 with the date at 9/4/15
  • Bean oil 979 with the date current

o   House Rand issued 13

Today is the last day of the Rogers roll. They are rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan..

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 877 ½
  • Nov bean 50 day 903 ½    
  • Dec corn 20 day 381
  • Dec corn 50 day 380 ¾      
  • Dec corn 100 day 388 ¼
  • Dec corn 200 day 399   
  • Dec wheat 50 day 499 ½  
  • Dec wheat 100 day 521 ¾
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 498     
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 525 ½    
  • Dec meal 20 day 308.20
  • Dec meal 50 day 315.80
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.40
  • Dec meal 200 day 317.10
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2703
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2836

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: –  No changes.

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 110
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  773

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,308,170 open, up 12,438
  • Total soybeans – 704,298 open, up 5,297
  • Total soymeal – 368,036 open, down 524
  • Total bean oil – 402,054 open, down 4,629
  • Total wheat – 368,089 open, up 2,090
  • Total KC wheat – 185,994 open, up 817

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST , expecting +101 BCF.
  • US September unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates tomorrow. Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST.

o   All wheat average estimate 25.1 MMT vs. August estimate of 24.625 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 29.419

o   Durum average estimate 4.7 MMT vs. August estimate of 4.467 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 5.1927 MMT

o   Canola average estimate 14.5 MMT vs. August estimate of 13.343 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 16.41 MMT

o   Oats average estimate 3.4 MMT vs. August estimate of 3.31 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 2.979

o   Barley average estimate 7.3 MMT vs. August estimate of 7.305 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 7.119 MMT

o   Corn average estimate 12.3 MMT vs. August estimate of 12.312 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 11.4868 MMT

o   Beans average estimate 5.8 MMT vs. August estimate of 5.8569 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 6.0486 MMT

  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on October 10th with their Malaysian Oct 1-10 palm oil export estimates
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on October 19th
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE