News From The Grain Floor 09/30/15

USDA quarterly stocks and US wheat production report today at 11 am CST. See attachment for report’s recap table or see below for estimates for the report.

No USDA 8 am CST announcement this morning

Today is month end and end of the quarter

South American Weather:

In Brazil, there were a few storms yesterday in Mato Grosso but most of the moisture concentrated further south in northern Paraguay and Parana. Temperatures across Brazil warmed up while Argentina remained cool. In Brazil again, a series of cool fronts move across southern areas next 10 days producing 1.75” to 3.00” of rain from Parana and south of that. Dry weather takes place in the north where plantings season is seen a bit delayed. In Argentina, conditions stay cooler than normal over the next 10 days as a series of cool fronts pass. Each front triggers a few showers, but most areas receive minimal amounts with highest totals of 0.50” to 1.00” in / adjacent La Pampa tomorrow, including around 20% of national  wheat production.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 at 887 ¼
  • CZ up ¾ at 389 ¾
  • WZ up 1 ¼ at 505
  • KC WZ up 1 ¾ at 496 ½
  • MWZ up 2 ¾ at 523
  • SMZ up 1.90 at 307.40
  • BOZ down 24 at 2745

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,024
  • CZ 16,129
  • WZ 5,893
  • KC WZ 1,068
  • MWZ 266
  • SMZ 5,938
  • BOZ 10,130

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,223
  • Wheat 704
  • Beans 3,724
  • Meal 562
  • Bean oil 46

Fund Positions:

 

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

15-Sep

22-Sep

to COT

23-Sep

24-Sep

25-Sep

28-Sep

29-Sep

Estimate

Corn

659

-1375

-2034

3000

-2000

8000

-6000

5000

6625

Wheat

-83660

-78152

5508

7000

-4000

4000

-3000

0

-74152

Soybeans

-41433

-57866

-16433

-2000

5000

12000

-7000

6000

-43866

Soymeal

44863

27963

-16900

-4000

0

4000

-3000

2000

26963

Soyoil

-30717

-32460

-1743

2000

5000

6000

-6000

4000

-21460

News

Dec Euro at 1.1206 down .0065

Nikkei closes up 2.70% on hopes Bank of Japan will boost stimulus efforts

Hang Seng markets closes up 1.4% , down 3.8% on month , and down 20.6% on quarter

Shanghai Index closes up .5%, down 4.8% on month, and down 28.6% on quarter

China , Japan, Euro Zone , Germany and other official September PMI comes out tonight/tomorrow morning.

S&P said ECB will boost QE by 120% to 2.4 trillion Euro

World Bank downgrades Russia’s economic look and said the economy may contract further.

Weekly US API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon. Crude a build of 4.6 MB, expecting a build of 102,000 barrels.

China’s Golden Week starts tomorrow. China markets will be closed from tomorrow through Wednesday October 7th

China grain markets closings – beans up 32, corn down 7, meal up 14, palm oil up 28 and bean oil up 12.

China NDRC has set 2016 wheat , corn , rice , and cotton import quotas , unchanged from 2015.

  • Wheat 9.636 million tons
  • Corn 7.2 million tons
  • Rice 5.32 million tons
  • Cotton 894,000 tons

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 77.

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s September palm oil exports at 1,552,149 tons up .7% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s September palm oil exports at 1,532,966 tons up .5% from a month ago

Veg Oil conference in India . Conference ended today.  

  • Concerns about dry weather in Malaysia and Indonesia continues, may lower palm oil production.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Council said El Nino likely to cut 2016 Malaysia palm oil production by 1.0 MMT to 19.0 MMT
  • Indonesian Palm Oil Association said Indonesia’s 2016 palm oil production could fall as much as 5% due to El Nino

o   Estimated 2016 output at 31-31.5 MMT vs. 32.5 MMT in 2015

  • Thomas Mielke said El Nino to boost Malaysian RBD palm oil price by over 13% by next March
  • Dorab Mistry said India’s 2016 rapeseed output could rise by 1-1.5 MMT
  • Dorab Mistry said Malaysian palm oil prices have bottomed out to trade 2,100- 2,400 ringgit per ton on weaker currency
  • Dorab Mistry said Malaysian palm oil prices could rise to 2,500 ringgit for a brief period  

Reports China bought at least 2 cargoes of US soybeans off the Gulf yesterday for Oct-Nov shipment

Egypt FIHC seeks 9,000 tons of sunflower oil and 25,000 tons of bean oil for Dec –Feb shipment

India seeking Brazilian corn

Bangladesh seeking Brazilian corn

Egypt eyeing corn

Japan bought 23,600 tons of feed wheat and 12,300 tons of barley via SBS tender for Dec shipment. They were seeking 120,000 tons of wheat and 200,000 tons of barley .

China sold only 2,000 tons of wheat at auction, they offered 851,000 tons.

EU Commission 2015 EU crop estimates

  • Soft wheat crop estimated at 144.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 140.7 MMT
  • Corn crop estimated at 58.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 58.7 MMT
  • Barley crop estimated at 59.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 57.2 MMT
  • Rapeseed crop estimated at 21.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.8 MMT

Concerns about dryness in Black Sea region.

Today is first notice day for October soy meal and bean oil .

Deliveries

  • Soy meal 110 with the date at 8/24/15, expecting 0-200 deliveries
  • Bean oil 979 with the date at 9/23/15 , expecting 500-1,500 deliveries

o   House Rand stopped 13

Today is the second day of the Rogers roll. They are rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan. Rogers roll ends tomorrow.

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 876 ¼   
  • Dec corn 20 day 380
  • Dec corn 50 day 381 ¼     
  • Dec corn 100 day 388 ¼
  • Dec corn 200 day 399 ¼    
  • Dec wheat 50 day 499 ½  
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 498 ½    
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 526   
  • Dec meal 20 day 308.20
  • Dec meal 50 day 316.50
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.30
  • Dec meal 200 day 317.30
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2700

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 110

o   100 new meal receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Owensboro Grain Company,  Owensboro KY
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  773

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,296,263 open, up 7,656
  • Total soybeans – 699,366 open, up 159
  • Total soymeal – 368,583 open ,  down 5,970
  • Total bean oil – 406,703 open, down 9,563
  • Total wheat – 366,300 open, down 1,992
  • Total KC wheat – 185,187 open, down 266

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a draw of 500,000 barrels

o   Gas a draw of 500,000 barrels

o   Distillates a draw of 1.0 MB

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST.
  • Global September final PMIs come out tonight/tomorrow morning
  • China’s Golden Week starts tomorrow. China markets will be closed from Oct 1st through October 7th.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST , expecting +101 BCF.
  • Census crush data comes out tomorrow after being discontinued four years ago. The crush data will cover May-August crush. The report comes out at 2 pm CST. Based on Reuters survey expecting

o   August crush average estimate is 142.0 MB , range of estimates 140.9-142.7 MB vs. NOPA August crush estimate of 135.304 MB

  • US September unemployment report comes out Friday at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates on Friday Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST.

o   All wheat average estimate 25.1 MMT vs. August estimate of 24.625 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 29.419

o   Durum average estimate 4.7 MMT vs. August estimate of 4.467 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 5.1927 MMT

o   Canola average estimate 14.5 MMT vs. August estimate of 13.343 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 16.41 MMT

o   Oats average estimate 3.4 MMT vs. August estimate of 3.31 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 2.979

o   Barley average estimate 7.3 MMT vs. August estimate of 7.305 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 7.119 MMT

o   Corn average estimate 12.3 MMT vs. August estimate of 12.312 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 11.4868 MMT

o   Beans average estimate 5.8 MMT vs. August estimate of 5.8569 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 6.0486 MMT

  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

USDA comes out today at 11 am CST with quarterly stocks and small grains report.

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks as of September 1st

  • Wheat – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.149 BB , range of estimates are 1.987-2.285 BB, June 1st wheat stocks were .753 BB and September 1 2014 wheat stocks were 1.907 BB
  • Corn – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.739 BB , range of estimates are 1.647-1.850 BB, June 1st corn stocks were 4.447 BB and September 1 2014 corn stocks were 1.232 BB
  • Beans – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate .205 BB , range of estimates are .165-.250 BB , June 1st bean stocks were .625 BB and September 1 2014 bean stocks were .092 BB

Estimates for US 2015 wheat production

  • All wheat production – (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.133 BB, range of estimates are 2.105-2.160. USDA August estimate was 2.136 BB and US 2014 all wheat production was 2.026 BB
  • All winter wheat production – (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.430 BB, range of estimates are 1.406-1.447 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.438 BB and US 2014 all winter wheat production was 1.378 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat production – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .855 BB, range of estimates are .845-.870 BB. USDA August estimate was .856 BB and US 2014 hard red winter wheat production was .738 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat production – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .383 BB, range of estimates are .360-.393 BB. USDA August estimate was .389 BB and US 2014 soft red winter wheat production was .455 BB.
  • White winter wheat production – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .192 BB, range of estimates are .185-.195 BB. USDA August estimate was .193 BB and US 2014 white winter wheat production was .184 BB
  • Other spring wheat production – (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .625 BB, range of estimates are .615-.636 BB. USDA August estimate was .621 BB and US 2014 other spring wheat production was .595 BB
  • Durum wheat production – (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .079 BB, range of estimates are .075-.082 BB. USDA August estimate was .077 BB and US 2014 durum wheat production was .053 BB

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE