News From The Grain Floor 09/28/15

USDA announced 1.0 MMT of US beans sold to China for ‘16/17 shipment (most likely part of the framed contract signed in US last week)

USDA announced 249,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 ¼ at 884
  • CZ  up ¾ at 389 ¾
  • WZ up 6 ½ at 514 ¼
  • KC WZ up 6 at 506 ¼
  • MWZ up 6 at 528 ¾
  • SMZ down 1.20 at 307.00
  • BOZ down 7 at 2784

Overnight volume

  • SX 19,447
  • CZ 13,260
  • WZ 9,698
  • KC WZ 818
  • MWZ 228
  • SMZ 7,881
  • BOZ 14,320

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,596
  • Wheat 2,081
  • Beans 2,961
  • Meal 11
  • Bean oil 252

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

29

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

26

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

15-Sep

22-Sep

to COT

23-Sep

24-Sep

25-Sep

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

659

-1375

-2034

3000

-2000

8000

7625

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-83660

-78152

5508

7000

-4000

4000

-71152

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

-41433

-57866

-16433

-2000

5000

12000

-42866

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

44863

27963

-16900

-4000

0

4000

27963

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

-30717

-32460

-1743

2000

5000

6000

-19460

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014 

News

Dec Euro at 1.1166 down .0037

Nikkei closes down 1.32%

Hang Seng markets closed today for holiday

Shanghai Index closes up .3%

China grain markets closings – beans down 11, corn down 15, meal up 7, palm oil up 44, and bean oil up 55

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 52.

China bought 2 US soybean cargoes from the Gulf on Friday for November shipment

China bought 2 Brazilian bean cargoes on Friday , one cargo for March shipment and the other for May shipment

Bangladesh feed mills are importing Brazilian corn due to India’s drought reducing India’s corn supply.

  • Bangladesh bought 150,000 tons of Brazilian corn
  • Bangladesh seeking 50,000 tons more of Brazilian corn

Oman seeks 60,000 tons of Russian wheat for Nov shipment

Ukraine Ag Min said today that Ukraine has exported 8.86 MMT of grain so far this season.

SAGIS said South Africa’s corn end of August stocks at 6.798 MMT vs. end of July stocks of 7.181 MMT

SAGIS said South Africa has exported 270,858 tons of corn by the end of August.

Weekly COPA Canadian crushers report from Friday

  • Canadian crushers crushed 133,604 tons of canola vs. 121,604 tons a week ago
  • Year to date Canadian crushers have crushed 1.022 MMT of canola down 1.5% from a year ago
  • Year to date Canadian crushers have crushed 276,752 tons of soybeans up 92.6% from a year ago

Argentina Ag Min- Farmers selling as of Sept 16th

  • ’15/16 wheat crop is 2.10% sold vs. 5.36% a year ago
  • ‘15/16 corn crop is .97% sold vs. 1.62% a year ago
  • ’15/16 bean crop is .98% sold vs. .92% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 wheat crop is 98.36% sold vs. 70.73% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn crop is 71.93% sold vs. 71.37% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 bean crop is 67.89% sold vs. 59.79% a year ago

FranceAgriMer said Friday that France has harvested 4% of their corn crop vs. 1% a week ago and vs. 0% a year ago

FranceAgriMer said Friday that France’s corn crop is rated 56% good to excellent , up 1% from a week ago

Mostly favorable US Midwest harvest weather.

Concerns about dryness in US winter wheat planting areas.

Back to back droughts in India is expected to reduce India’s summer planted corn production by more than 15%

  • India’s southern states are estimating their 2015 corn crop at 3.2-4.2 MMT vs. 6.5 MMT in 2014

Concerns about dryness in Black Sea region continues

  • Rains are expected in Russia’s main southern wheat areas this week

o   SovEcon said there is still time to plant wheat on time

Concerns about dry weather in Australia continues.

Concerns about dry weather in Malaysia and Indonesia continues.

Recent smoke from forest fires in Indonesia seen affecting palm oil production

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 876 ¼   
  • Dec corn 50 day 382 ½     
  • Dec corn 100 day 388
  • Dec corn 200 day 399 ½   
  • Dec wheat 50 day 501
  • Dec wheat 100 day 521 ½   
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 501   
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 528 ¼     
  • Dec meal 20 day 308.70
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.40
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2706

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 10
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  773

Open interest as of Friday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,290,730 open , up 12,625
  • Total soybeans – 709,141 open , up 4,924
  • Total soymeal – 382,571 open, up 2,758
  • Total bean oil – 418,304 open , down 3,771
  • Total wheat – 378,820 open , up 3,749
  • Total KC wheat – 186,746 open, down 38

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn harvest 25-28% complete

o   Bean harvest 14-17% complete

o   Wheat planting 35-38% complete

  • Position day for October soymeal and bean oil is tomorrow. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Rogers index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins tomorrow. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 3 days.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • Euro zone unemployment comes out on Wednesday.
  • USDA quarterly grain stocks report comes out Wednesday at 11 am CST . See below for estimates for USDA report
  • First notice day for October soy meal and bean oil is Wednesday
  • Global September final PMIs come out on Wednesday night/Thursday morning
  • China’s Golden Week starts Thursday. China markets will be closed from Oct 1st through October 7th.
  • Census crush data comes out on Thursday after being discontinued four years ago. The crush data will cover May-August crush
  • US September unemployment report comes out Friday at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates on Friday Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST.
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

USDA comes out on Wednesday with quarterly stocks and small grains report. Report comes out at 11 am CST

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks as of September 1st

  • Wheat – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.149 BB , range of estimates are 1.987-2.285 BB, June 1st wheat stocks were .753 BB and September 1 2014 wheat stocks were 1.907 BB
  • Corn – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.739 BB , range of estimates are 1.647-1.850 BB, June 1st corn stocks were 4.447 BB and September 1 2014 corn stocks were 1.232 BB
  • Beans – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate .205 BB , range of estimates are .165-.250 BB , June 1st bean stocks were .625 BB and September 1 2014 bean stocks were .092 BB

Estimates for US 2015 wheat production

  • All wheat production – (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.133 BB, range of estimates are 2.105-2.160. USDA August estimate was 2.136 BB and US 2014 all wheat production was 2.026 BB
  • All winter wheat production – (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.430 BB, range of estimates are 1.406-1.447 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.438 BB and US 2014 all winter wheat production was 1.378 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat production – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .855 BB, range of estimates are .845-.870 BB. USDA August estimate was .856 BB and US 2014 hard red winter wheat production was .738 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat production – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .383 BB, range of estimates are .360-.393 BB. USDA August estimate was .389 BB and US 2014 soft red winter wheat production was .455 BB.
  • White winter wheat production – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .192 BB, range of estimates are .185-.195 BB. USDA August estimate was .193 BB and US 2014 white winter wheat production was .184 BB
  • Other spring wheat production – (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .625 BB, range of estimates are .615-.636 BB. USDA August estimate was .621 BB and US 2014 other spring wheat production was .595 BB
  • Durum wheat production – (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .079 BB, range of estimates are .075-.082 BB. USDA August estimate was .077 BB and US 2014 durum wheat production was .053 BB

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE