News From The Grain Floor 09/25/15

October options expire today.

USDA announced 260,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX up 9 ½ at 877 ½
  • CZ up 2 ¼ at 383 ¾
  • WZ up 4 ¾ at 502
  • KC WZ up 5 at 495
  • MWZ up 4 ½ at 518 ½
  • SMZ up 1.60 at 303.50
  • BOZ up 71 at 2789

Overnight volume

  • SX 20,869
  • CZ 9,232
  • WZ 6,149
  • KC WZ 554
  • MWZ 108
  • SMZ 9,592
  • BOZ 18,739

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,002
  • Wheat 2,050
  • Beans 6,723
  • Meal 491
  • Bean oil 885

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

100

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

31

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

11

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

8-Sep

15-Sep

to COT

16-Sep

17-Sep

18-Sep

21-Sep

22-Sep

23-Sep

24-Sep

Estimate

Corn

-23549

659

24208

-7000

-8000

-4000

8000

-6000

3000

-2000

-15341

Wheat

-84624

-83660

964

-4000

-3000

3000

6000

-1000

7000

-4000

-79660

Soybeans

-35375

-41433

-6058

-1000

-2000

-8000

5000

-8000

-2000

5000

-52433

Soymeal

36035

44863

8828

-3000

-3000

-5000

1000

-5000

-4000

0

25863

Soyoil

-23336

-30717

-7381

2000

0

-4000

3000

-2000

2000

5000

-24717

News

Dec Euro at 1.1180 down .0054

Nikkei closes up 1.76%

  • On Bank of Japan stimulus hopes.

Hang Seng closes up .4% , down 3.4% on week

Shanghai Index closes down 1.6%, unchanged on the week

US Fed Chairwoman Yellen spoke yesterday – Headlines from Reuters

  • Fed’s Yellen says expects rate hike later this year
  • Rate hike expectations based on continued falling unemployment , fading economic headwinds
  • FOMC does not expect recent global economic, financial development to significantly affect policy path
  • Prudent to begin policy tightening “in a timely fashion” at gradual pace
  • Much of recent inflation shortfall due to special , likely transitory factors
  • Yellen expects 2% inflation over next few years as temporary factors wane
  • Yellen expects PCE inflation to rebound to 1.5% or higher next year depending on dollar, oil
  • Higher than natural employment level maybe need to reduce labor market slack
  • Modest decline in unemployment below long run level could speed return to 2% inflation
  • Holding rates near zero too long risks abrupt tightening later on
  • Expects “quite gradual” path of policy tightening
  • US economic prospects “generally appear solid”

China grain markets closings – beans down 21, corn up 8, meal up 1, palm oil up 100, and bean oil up 74

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 102

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-25th palm oil exports at 1,339,354 tons up 4.2% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-25th palm oil exports at 1,322,256 tons up 3.64% from a month ago

Yesterday in Iowa Chinese trade delegation signed framed contracts to buy 13.18 MMT of US beans mostly for ‘15/16 shipment and some for ‘16/17 shipment.

  • Analysts were expecting China to sign deals for 6-10 MMT of US soybeans

Hearing China November soybean needs are 50-70% covered

China only sold 35,861 tons or just .7% of corn at this week’s auction. They offered a total of 5.4 MMT of corn Thursday and today.

  • China’s government only sold a total of 4.03 MMT of corn at auction this year only 3.9% of total offered

Hearing Algeria bought Argentina soymeal yesterday

Hearing Malaysia and Vietnam bought Argentine soymeal this week for Nov-Dec shipment

South Korea KFMC bought 23,000 tons of US wheat for Dec-Jan shipment

South Korea expected to tender for soymeal next week for Feb-March shipment

Taiwan seeks 89,150 tons of US milling wheat for Nov – Dec shipment

Coceral estimated 2015 EU soft wheat crop at 148.2 MMT vs. June estimate of 140.6 MMT

Coceral estimated 2015 EU corn crop at 59.5 MMT vs. June estimate of 65.7 MMT

Ukrainian farmers have sown 1.9 million hectares of winter grains  or 26% of the intended area. This is down from 2.0 million hectares last year.

Russian farmers have sown 9.6 million hectares of winter grains or 56% of the intended area but down 377,800 hectares from last year.

Favorable harvest weather in US Midwest continues.

Dry weather continues in Russia and Ukraine wheat areas

Dry weather continues in Australia , with limited rains in forecast

Concerns about dry weather in Malaysia and Indonesia , may reduce palm oil production.

See bottom of email for Brazilian Real reversal charts , yesterday Brazilian Real made a new low then rose higher in what looked like a key reversal.

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 875 ½  
  • Dec corn 20 day 377 ½
  • Dec corn 50 day 383 ¼    
  • Dec corn 100 day 387 ¾
  • Dec corn 200 day 399 ¾   
  • Dec wheat 50 day 501 ¾  
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 502 ½   
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 512 ½    
  • Dec meal 20 day 308.70
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.30
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2707

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13

o   5 oat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 10
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  773

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Position day for October soymeal and bean oil is Tuesday. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Rogers index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Tuesday September 29th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 3 days.
  • USDA quarterly grain stocks report comes out Wednesday at 11 am CST
  • First notice day for October soy meal and bean oil is Wednesday September 30th
  • China’s Golden Week starts Thursday Oct 1st . China markets will be closed from Oct 1st through October 7th.
  • US September unemployment report comes out Friday Oct 2nd at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates on Friday October 2nd. Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST.
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE