News From The Grain Floor 09/24/15

USDA announced 313,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown destinations for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX down 3 ½ at 860 ¼
  • CZ down 3 at 380 ¼
  • WZ down 5 ¼ at 502 ¼
  • KC WZ down 6 ½ at 495 ¼
  • MWZ  down 4 ¾ at 522 ½
  • SMZ down .80 at 301.20
  • BOZ down 5 at 2649

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,435
  • CZ 10,619
  • WZ 9,149
  • KC WZ 1,075
  • MWZ 399
  • SMZ 5,974
  • BOZ 9,000

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,595
  • Wheat 1,487
  • Beans 2,307
  • Meal 165
  • Bean oil 0

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

787

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

174

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

8-Sep

15-Sep

to COT

16-Sep

17-Sep

18-Sep

21-Sep

22-Sep

23-Sep

Estimate

Corn

-23549

659

24208

-7000

-8000

-4000

8000

-6000

3000

-13341

Wheat

-84624

-83660

964

-4000

-3000

3000

6000

-1000

7000

-75660

Soybeans

-35375

-41433

-6058

-1000

-2000

-8000

5000

-8000

-2000

-57433

Soymeal

36035

44863

8828

-3000

-3000

-5000

1000

-5000

-4000

25863

Soyoil

-23336

-30717

-7381

2000

0

-4000

3000

-2000

2000

-29717

News

Dec Euro at 1.1280 up .0058

Malaysian and Indonesian markets closed today , trading resumes tomorrow.

Japanese markets reopened last night after being closed Monday-Wednesday.

Nikkei closes down 2.76%

Hang Seng closes down 1.0%

Shanghai Index closes up .9%

US Central Bank Chairwoman to speak tonight on inflation and policy.

Concerns about health of the global economy continues.

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +3,000 to 267,000 , expecting 275,000

China grain markets closings – beans up 3, corn up 3, meal up 5, palm oil up 74, and bean oil up 10.

Malaysian palm oil market closed for holiday, trading resumes tomorrow.

Chinese trade delegation is in the US , and are expected to sign deals to buy 3-5 million tons , some analysts said they will sign framed contracts for as much as 6-10 million tons of US soybeans in Iowa today.

China auctioning a total of 5.0 MMT of corn from reserves today and tomorrow.

Jordan tenders to sell 50,000 tons of hard wheat.

Argentina’s August soybean crush was 4.250 MMT vs. 4.746 MMT in July and up 763,000 tons from a year ago.

US $13.30 soybeans priced in Reals, see chart on bottom of email.

Weaker Brazilian real favors soybean sales.

  • Cerealpar said Brazil has sold 45-50% of their ‘15/16 bean crop

o   AgRural said on August 28th Brazil had sold 30% of their ‘15/16 bean crop

  • IMEA said Mato Grosso has sold 40% of their ‘15/16 bean crop vs. 11% a year ago

Russia’s government proposes to cut wheat export tax from October 1st

Russia Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 grain exports at 30.0 MMT

Russia Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 grain crop at 100-101 MMT

Good harvest weather in US continues.

Continued concerns about wheat crops in Ukraine, Russia, Australia, Argentina, and Brazil.

Some analysts saying Australian wheat crop seen avoiding widespread frost damage .  

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat – ‘15/16 282,800 ‘16/17 30,900 (expecting 250-400,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘15/16 426,300 tons (expecting 550-750,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘15/16 1.32 million tons (expecting 1.0-1.2 million tons)
  • Meal – ‘14/15 25,800 ‘15/16 86,900 tons (expecting 120-275,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘14/15 18,800  ‘15/16 48,000 tons (expecting 0-40,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 282,800 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were down 25 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (115,600 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (94,900 MT, including 34,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (59,700 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (38,500 MT, including 38,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,500 MT), Jamaica (36,000 MT), and Mexico (31,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (162,900 MT), Guatemala (5,200 MT), Thailand (3,300 MT), and Panama (2,800 MT). Net sales of 30,900 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for unknown destinations (18,900 MT), Guatemala (5,200 MT), El Salvador (4,000 MT), and Panama (2,800 MT). Exports of 614,900 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior-4 week average. The primary destinations were China (103,800 MT), Mexico (81,800 MT), Colombia (69,800 MT), the Philippines (65,600 MT), Taiwan (51,100 MT), and Thailand (48,700 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 426,300 MT for delivery in 2015/2016 were down 20 percent from the previous week. Increases were reported primarily for Mexico (159,600 MT), Colombia (154,700 MT, including 93,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,100 MT), Bangladesh (54,300 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Guatemala (39,900 MT), and Taiwan (18,100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (23,800 MT) and Japan (4,700 MT). Exports of 795,400 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week. The primary destinations were Mexico (281,500 MT), Japan (187,700 MT), Colombia (163,600 MT), Bangladesh (54,300 MT), Peru (32,600 MT), Canada (28,000 MT), and Guatemala (21,800 MT)
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,316,000 MT for 2015/2016, up 44 percent from the previous week, were primarily for China (762,700 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 73,700 MT), unknown destinations (302,500 MT), the Netherlands (85,300 MT, including 78,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (30,100 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT), and Tunisia (30,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Guatemala (500 MT) and South Korea (200 MT). Exports of 349,300 MT were primarily to China (177,900 MT), the Netherlands (85,300 MT), Japan (43,900 MT), Mexico (14,400 MT), Taiwan (9,900 MT), and Indonesia (7,600 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 25,800 MT for 2014/2015 were down 37 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (15,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (10,600 MT), Colombia (6,600 MT), Canada (5,400 MT), and the Philippines (1,600 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (15,000 MT) and Guatemala (100 MT). Net sales of 86,900 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (20,800 MT), Guatemala (15,700 MT), Mexico (15,100 MT), and Canada (13,600 MT). Exports of 90,400 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (25,300 MT), Venezuela (15,000 MT), Canada (13,800 MT), Honduras (10,700 MT), Guatemala (8,900 MT), and Colombia (6,600 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 18,800 MT for 2014/2015 were up 47 percent from the previous week and 86 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Canada (8,000 MT), Peru (7,100 MT), and Mexico (3,500 MT). Net sales of 48,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Egypt (25,000 MT), Guatemala (9,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (9,000 MT), and Mexico (2,500 MT). Exports of 24,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Canada (10,500 MT), Venezuela (10,000 MT), and Mexico (4,100 MT)

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 875 ½  
  • Dec corn 20 day 377
  • Dec corn 50 day 384 ¼    
  • Dec corn 100 day 387 ½  
  • Dec wheat 50 day 503 ½
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 504 ¼   
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 531 ¼   
  • Dec meal 20 day 309.40
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.40
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2701

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: – no changes

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 10
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  773

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,274,688 open, up 5,569
  • Total soybeans – 694,121 open, up 5,571
  • Total soymeal – 380,822 open, down 27
  • Total bean oil – 424,286 open, down 628
  • Total wheat – 375,642 open, up 64
  • Total KC wheat – 187,751 open, down 269

Upcoming reports/events:

  • China to auction a total of 5.0 MMT of corn from reserves tomorrow and Friday
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +98 BCF
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services comes out tomorrow with their Malaysian Sept 1-25 palm oil export estimates.
  • October options expire tomorrow. Options expire on the close
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Position day for October soymeal and bean oil is Tuesday. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Rogers index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Tuesday September 29th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 3 days.
  • USDA quarterly grain stocks report comes out Wednesday September 30th at 11 am CST
  • First notice day for October soy meal and bean oil is Wednesday September 30th
  • China’s Golden Week starts Thursday Oct 1st . China markets will be closed from Oct 1st through October 7th.
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates on Friday October 2nd. Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST.
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

SH16 (via Brazilian Real)

US $13.30 soybeans priced in Reals

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE