News From The Grain Floor 09/23/15

USDA announced 284,500 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX up 5 ½ at 867 ½
  • CZ up 3 ¼ at 383 ¾
  • WZ up 8 ½ at 504
  • KC WZ up 11 ¾ at 499 ¾
  • MWZ up 8 ¼ at 525 ¼
  • SMZ up 1.70 at 305.00
  • BOZ up 26 at 2660

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,573
  • CZ 12,126
  • WZ 13,240
  • KC WZ 2,151
  • MWZ 978
  • SMZ 5,571
  • BOZ 9,369

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,851
  • Wheat 2,766
  • Beans 5,055
  • Meal 202
  • Bean oil 37

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

17

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

8-Sep

15-Sep

to COT

16-Sep

17-Sep

18-Sep

21-Sep

22-Sep

Estimate

Corn

-23549

659

24208

-7000

-8000

-4000

8000

-6000

-16341

Wheat

-84624

-83660

964

-4000

-3000

3000

6000

-1000

-82660

Soybeans

-35375

-41433

-6058

-1000

-2000

-8000

5000

-8000

-55433

Soymeal

36035

44863

8828

-3000

-3000

-5000

1000

-5000

29863

Soyoil

-23336

-30717

-7381

2000

0

-4000

3000

-2000

-31717

News

Dec Euro at 1.1164 up .0018

Japan markets closed today , trading resumes tomorrow.

Nikkei closed for holiday. Trading resumes Thursday

Hang Seng closes down 2.3%

Shanghai Index closes down 2.2%

September Flash Manufacturing PMIs came out last night/this morning

  • China’s Caixin flash PMI at 47.0 , lowest reading in 6 ½ years , expecting 47.5 and vs. China’s Caixin final August PMI of 47.3
  • German flash PMI at 52.5 expecting 52.8 and vs. August final of 53.3
  • Euro Zone flash PMI at 52.0, as expected, and vs. August final of 52.3
  • France flash PMI 50.4, expecting 48.5 , and vs. August final of 48.3

Concerns about health of the global economy continues.

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon. Crude a draw of 3.7 MB, expecting a draw of 533,000 barrels.

China grain markets closings – beans down 25, corn down 9, meal down 11, palm oil down 2, bean oil down 52  

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 57, hits 2 ½ month high, concerns about dry weather in Malaysia

Chinese trade delegation is in the US , and are expected to sign deals to buy 3-5 million tons , some analysts said they will sign framed contracts for as much as 6-10 million tons of US soybeans tomorrow

China eyeing US soybean cargoes for Oct / Nov and Jan shipment

China seeking South American new crop bean cargoes  

Asian buyer seeks 50,000 tons of Russian wheat for October shipment

Jordan seeks 50,000 optional origin hard wheat .

Nicaragua seeking corn for Jan shipment

Guatemala seeking wheat for Dec shipment

Thailand seeking soybeans for Jan shipment.

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2016 soybean crush at 42.3 MMT up 6% from 2015

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2016 soybean exports at 52.3 MMT up 4% from 2015

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2016 soybean ending stocks at 7.0 MMT up 72% from 2015

Safras e Mercado said Brazil bean and corn exports are unaffected by Ag Agents strike.

Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2015 grain crop at 59.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 60.0 MMT

Agritel said they may lower their current Ukraine ‘15/16 corn crop estimate to 23.0 MMT in October, their current estimate is 25.0 MMT

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Sept 21st Russia has harvested 88.688 MMT of grain on 36.244 MH with an average yield of 2.45 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 90.803 MMT of grain on 34.882 MH with an average yield of 2.60 TPH

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan has exported 1.179 MMT of grain between July 1-Sept 20 vs. 1.165 MMT a year ago

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 grain exports at 7.0 MMT vs. 6.444 MMT in ‘14/15

Analysts are expecting September NOPA crush to be a record high.

Good harvest weather in the US.

Concerns about dry weather in Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and Malaysia.

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 875 ¾   
  • Dec corn 20 day 376 ½  
  • Dec corn 50 day 385 ½   
  • Dec corn 100 day 387 ½  
  • Dec wheat 20 day 485 ¼
  • Dec wheat 50 day 504 ½
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 483 ¼  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 512 ½
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 532 ¾  
  • Dec meal 20 day 310.10
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.40
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2700

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: – no changes

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 10
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  773

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,269,077 open, up 9,608
  • Total soybeans 688,524 open, up 6,209
  • Total soymeal 380,864 open, down 1,982
  • Total bean oil 424,907 open, up 2,806
  • Total wheat 375,653 open, down 4,691
  • Total KC wheat 188,020 open, up 1,172

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a draw of 1.65 million barrels

o   Gas a build of 350,000 barrels

o   Distillates a build of 1.0 million barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • China to auction a total of 5.0 MMT of corn from reserves tomorrow and Friday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +98 BCF
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services comes out on Friday with their Malaysian Sept 1-25 palm oil export estimates.
  • October options expire on Friday. Options expire on the close
  • Position day for October soymeal and bean oil is Tuesday. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Rogers index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Tuesday September 29th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 3 days.
  • USDA quarterly grain stocks report comes out Wednesday September 30th at 11 am CST
  • First notice day for October soy meal and bean oil is Wednesday September 30th
  • China’s Golden Week starts Thursday Oct 1st . China markets will be closed from Oct 1st through October 7th.
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates on Friday October 2nd. Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST.
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE