News From The Grain Floor 09/23/15

Chinese trade delegation is in the US , and are expected to sign deals to buy 3-5 million tons , some analysts said they will sign framed contracts for as much as 6-10 million tons of US soybeans tomorrow

Brazil Federal Agricultural Agents strike preventing some cargoes of soy, corn , and cotton from unloading at destinations due to lack of certificates.

Based on a Reuters poll South Africa’s 2015 corn crop estimated at 9.76 MMT vs. CEC’s August estimate of 9.84 MMT

Dry weather is threatening Ukraine and Russia’s 2016 grain crops.

Concerns about India’s soybean crop due erratic weather in growing areas.

Citi Group estimated CBOT 2016 average corn price at $4.05 , spot month corn settled at 383 ¼ today

Citi Group estimated CBOT 2016 average soybean price at $9.15 , spot month beans settled at 863 ¾ today.

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 7,000
  • Corn bought 3,000
  • Beans sold 2,000
  • Meal sold 4,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • China to auction a total of 5.0 MMT of corn from reserves tomorrow and Friday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST Expecting

o   Wheat 250-400,000 tons

o   Corn 550 -750,000 tons

o   Beans 1.0-1.2 million tons

o   Meal 120-275,000 tons

o   Bean oil 0-40,000 tons

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +98 BCF

Option players:  

Corn:

Macquarie bot 1000 V 375 puts/bot 100 CZ

ICAP bot 500 V 380 puts

FI sold 500 X 410 calls-350 put strangles

ICAP bot 1000 X 360 puts

Beans:

ABN bot 500 V 790 puts

Rand bot 1000 V 860-850 put spreads

Macquarie bot 500 X 950-1000 call spreads

Wheat:

JPM sold 1000 Z 515 calls

Shatkin bot 1000 X 530 calls/sold 1000 X 470 puts/sold 470 WZ

RJO bot 700 Z 530 calls/sold 217 WZ

ADM bot 800 Z/H -6 cents cso straddles

FI sold 650 V 500-510 call spreads/bot 216 WZ

FI sold 500 V 500-510 calls spreads

ICAP sold 500 Z 540 calls-480 put strangles

Meal:

RJO sold 375 Z 300 puts/sold 165 SMZ

RJO sold 250 Z 260 puts

FI bot 2500 X 270 puts/sold 625 X 300 puts

Oil:

FI bot 600 Z 27 calls/sold 235 BOZ
Bank of America bot 500 Z 28 calls covered

ICAP bot 250 H 29 calls

FI bot 250 X 28 ½ calls

ABN bot 200 Z 29 calls

Newedge bot 200 K 27 puts/sold 200 K 30 calls

Macquarie sold 200 X 28 ½-30 call spreads

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 380 6.25 / 6.75 23.10%

X15 380 23.25 / 24 26.25%

Z15 380 30.25 / 30.75 24.75%

H16 390 48.25 / 49 24.25%

K16 400 58.50 / 59.50 24.25%

N16 410 68 / 70 24.50%

Z16 410 77.50 / 79 22.50%

Beans:

V15 870 11 / 13

X15 870 41 / 43 21.00%

Z15 880 54 / 56 19.50%

F16 880 65 / 67 18.75%

H16 880 82 / 84 18.50%

K16 880 94 / 97 18.00%

N16 880 106 / 110 17.75%

U16 880 115 / 119 17.50%

X16 880 123 / 128 17.25%

Wheat:

V15 510 9.25 / 10.25 25.75%

Z15 510 42 / 42.75 26.00%

H16 510 64.50  / 66.50 25.00%

K16 520 78.50 / 80 25.25%

N16 520 90 / 92 25.25%

KC Wheat:

V15 500 9 / 10 26.00%

Z15 500 39 / 41 25.75%

H16 510 64 / 66.50 24.75%

K16 520 77 / 79 24.75%

N16 530 90 / 93 24.75%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 530 37 / 41 23.00%

H16 540 61 / 67 23.50%

K16 550 75 / 82 23.50%

N16 560 89 / 96 24.25%

U16 570 95 / 105 23.50%

Z16 580 110 / 122 23.50%

Meal:

V15 305 5.5 / 6.5

X15 300 16.0 / 17.0 23.75%

Z15 300 22.0 / 23.0 23.50%

F16 300 26.0 / 27.0 22.00%

H16 300 31.5 / 32.5 21.00%

K16 300 35.0 / 37.0 19.75%

N16 300 38.5 / 40.5 19.25%

Q16 300 39.5 / 41.5 18.75%

U16 300 40.0 / 43.0 18.25%

V16 300 41.0 / 44.0 17.75%

Z16 300 43.0 / 46.0 17.25%

Bean oil:

V15 26.0 35 / 55

X15 26.5 140 / 160 24.75%

Z15 26.5 190 / 220 23.75%

F16 27.0 235 / 255 22.75%

H16 27.0 285 / 315 21.75%

K16 27.0 330 / 370 21.25%

N16 27.0 370 / 410 20.75%

Q16 28.0 390 / 430 20.25%

U16 28.0 400 / 450 20.00%

V16 28.0 410 / 460 19.50%

Z16 28.0 430 / 480 19.00%

Crush quotes

                Open                     Closes

Oct         97.0-98.0              92.5-93.5

Dec        96.0-96.5              92.5-93.0

JanDec  91.0-92.0             88.0-89.0

Jan         91.0-92.0              88.5-89.5

Mch       87.0-87.5              85.5-86.5

May       80.5-82.0              80.5-81.0

Jly           78.5-81.5              78.5-79.5

Sep        –      -97.5               —    -90.0

Oct         70.5-108.0           70.5-108.0

Dec        85.0-90.5              85.5-88.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE