News From The Grain Floor 09/22/15

Overnight closes

  • SX down 7 ¼ at 867
  • CZ down 3 ¾ at 380 ¾
  • WZ down 4 ½ at 492 ¼
  • KC WZ down 4 ¾ at 485 ¾
  • MWZ down 4 at 514 ¼  
  • SMZ down 1.20 at 307.00
  • BOZ down 30 at 2642

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,664
  • CZ 23,684
  • WZ 6,264
  • KC WZ 811
  • MWZ 195
  • SMZ 4,054
  • BOZ 9,091

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 1,368
  • Wheat 2,246
  • Beans 3,182
  • Meal 536
  • Bean oil 81

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

151

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

42

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

26

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

20

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

16

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

8-Sep

15-Sep

to COT

16-Sep

17-Sep

18-Sep

21-Sep

Estimate

Corn

-23549

659

24208

-7000

-8000

-4000

8000

-10341

Wheat

-84624

-83660

964

-4000

-3000

3000

6000

-81660

Soybeans

-35375

-41433

-6058

-1000

-2000

-8000

5000

-47433

Soymeal

36035

44863

8828

-3000

-3000

-5000

1000

34863

Soyoil

-23336

-30717

-7381

2000

0

-4000

3000

-29717

News

Dec Euro at 1.1168 down .0037

Japan markets closed today and tomorrow. Trading resumes Thursday.

Nikkei closed for holiday. Trading resumes Thursday

Hang Seng closes up .2%

Shanghai Index closes up .9%

Concerns about health of the global economy continues.

September flash PMIs come out tonight/tomorrow morning.

  • Expecting China’s Caixin flash PMI at 47.5 vs. August Caixin final of 47.3 , still near 6.5 year lows.

China grain markets closings – beans down 5, corn down 10, meal up 5, palm oil up 54, and bean oil unchanged.

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 32, one week high

Chinese trade delegation is coming to the US this week and are expected to sign deals to buy 3-5 million tons of US soybeans on Thursday.

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘15/16 corn imports at 2.8 MMT vs. ‘14/15 imports of 5.4 MMT

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘15/16 sorghum imports at 8.0 MMT

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘15/16 feed barley imports at 5.0 MMT

Russian Economy Ministry opposes cut of wheat export tax

  • Since the start of the month industry analysts expected the government to cut wheat export tax

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 grain exports at 7.0 MMT.

India’s Farm Minister estimated ‘15/16 winter planted grains at 132.78 MMT vs. 130.75 MMT a year ago

Manitoba weekly crop progress report said excellent harvest weather over the past week , harvest of spring cereal crop almost complete. Harvest of canola , flax, and soybeans continue. Winter wheat planting is also almost near completion.

Iran cancels import duties on wheat and barley

Good US harvest weather this week

Concerns about dryness for Russia and Ukraine’s winter wheat crop

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

Corn

  • Condition 68% good to excellent , unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged to up 1%) and vs. 74% good to excellent a year ago

o   Crop conditions do not have much impact this late in the season

  • Dented 94% vs. 87% a week ago and vs. 93% five year average
  • Mature 53% vs. 35% a week ago and vs. 56% five year average
  • Harvested 10% complete (expecting 12-15% complete) vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 15% five year average

o   Every state except for Pennsylvania is behind the average corn harvest pace

  • Tennessee is 16% behind average
  • Kentucky is 10% behind average
  • Illinois is 9% behind average
  • Missouri is 9% behind average  

Soybeans

  • Condition 63% good to excellent, up 2% from a week ago (expecting unchanged to up 1%) and vs. 71% a year ago

o   Crop conditions do not have much impact this late in the season

  • Dropping leaves 56% vs. 35% a week ago and vs. 50% five year average
  • Harvested 7% complete (expecting 4-8%) vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 7% five year average

o   Southern US soybean harvest is ahead of the average

o   Midwest soybean harvest is slightly behind average

Winter wheat

  • Planted 19% complete (expecting 17-20%) vs. 9% a week ago vs. 20% five year average

Rice

  • Condition 59% good to excellent, down 3% from a week ago and vs. 74% good to excellent
  • Harvested 55% vs. 44% a week ago and vs. 54% five year average

Cotton

  • Condition 52% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and vs. 48% a year ago
  • Bolls open 57% vs. 46% a week ago and vs. 61% five year average
  • Harvested 7% vs. 4% a week ago and vs. 9% five year average

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 876 ½   
  • Dec corn 20 day 376 ½  
  • Dec corn 50 day 386 ½   
  • Dec corn 100 day 387 ½  
  • Dec wheat 20 day 485
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 483 ½  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 511 ¾
  • Dec meal 20 day 310.90
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.50
  • Dec meal 200 day 318.20
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2704

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 10
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  773

o   22 Minneapolis wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon.

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,260,429 open, up 17,458
  • Total soybeans 682,262 open, up 2,933
  • Total soymeal 383,185 open, down 2,058
  • Total bean oil 422,101 open, down 4,358
  • Total wheat 380,356 open, up 323
  • Total KC wheat 186,848 open, up 1,112

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Flash September PMIs comes out tonight/tomorrow morning

o   Expecting China’s Sept PMI at 47.5 vs. August PMI of 47.3 , still near 6.5 year lows

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a draw of 1.65 million barrels

o   Gas a build of 350,000 barrels

o   Distillates a build of 1.0 million barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services comes out on Friday with
  • October options expire on Friday. Options expire on the close
  • Rogers index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Tuesday September 29th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 3 days.
  • China’s Golden Week starts Thursday Oct 1st . China markets will be closed from Oct 1st through October 7th.
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates on Friday October 2nd. Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST.
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE