News From The Grain Floor 09/21/15

USDA announced 487,600 tons of US corn sold to Mexico for ‘15/16 shipment

USDA announced 240,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 at 869 ¼
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 375
  • WZ down 2 ¾ at 484
  • KC WZ down 4 at 478 ¼
  • MWZ down 1 ¾ at 509 ¼
  • SMZ unchanged at 307.80
  • BOZ up 22 at 2647

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,990
  • CZ 11,906
  • WZ 6,579
  • KC WZ 1,616
  • MWZ 268
  • SMZ 4,799
  • BOZ 6,761

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 4,841
  • Wheat 952
  • Beans 2,180
  • Meal 163
  • Bean oil 1,122

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

20

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

9

Funds

The latest COT was not too far from most estimates…As of September 15th, funds were about even in corn but since then they probably rebuild a small short in the second part of last week…in wheat the short stayed about the same and is probably a bit larger as of this morning than the COT number (-84k)…in beans, funds continued to build steadily their short with the estimate as of this morning being short 52k lots (COT -41k). In the products, the long meal vs short oil stayed basically intact.

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

8-Sep

15-Sep

to COT

16-Sep

17-Sep

18-Sep

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

-23549

659

24208

-7000

-8000

-4000

-18341

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-84624

-83660

964

-4000

-3000

3000

-87660

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

-35375

-41433

-6058

-1000

-2000

-8000

-52433

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

36035

44863

8828

-3000

-3000

-5000

33863

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

-23336

-30717

-7381

2000

0

-4000

-32717

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News

Dec Euro at 1.1265 down .0102

Japan markets closed today – Wednesday. Trading resumes Thursday.

Nikkei closed for holiday. Trading resumes Thursday

Hang Seng closes down .8%

Shanghai Index closes up 1.9%

Concerns about global economy continues.

China grain markets closings – beans down 63, corn down 9, meal down 39, palm oil down 32, and bean oil down 36.

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 49.

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-20th palm oil exports at 1,122,321 tons up 13.3% from a month ago

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-20th palm oil exports at 1,067,503 tons up 7.6% from a month ago.

Based on a Reuters survey Indonesia’s August palm oil output estimated at 3.198 MMT vs. 2.856 MMT in July

Based on a Reuters survey Indonesia’s August palm oil exports estimated at 1.885 MMT vs. 1.92 MMT in July

South Korea seeks 5,000 tons of soybeans for Nov-Dec shipment.

On Friday Egypt GASC bought 230,000 tons of wheat for October shipment

  • 115,000 tons from Russia
  • 55,000 tons from the Ukraine
  • 60,000 tons from France

China cut state corn prices by 10% over the weekend

Chinese trade delegation is coming to the US this week and are expected to sign deals to buy 3-5 million tons of US soybeans on Thursday.

Informa said on Friday that US 2015 soybean area will be 1.4 MA lower than USDA’s August estimate

  • Other analysts are expecting bean area to be 300,000 acres – 1.0 million acres lower than USDA August estimate

Informa said on Friday that US 2015 corn area will be about 500,000 acres less than USDA’s August estimate

  • Other analysts are expecting corn area to be about unchanged from USDA’s August estimate

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 100.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 99.8 MMT

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 total corn crop at 88.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.2 MMT

EPA on Friday said US generated 1.26 billion renewable fuel credits in August vs. 1.28 billion in July

EPA on Friday said US generated 283.4 million biomass-based diesel credits in August vs. 294.4 million in July

Egypt Supplies Minister said Egypt has enough wheat supply to last until March.

COPA said for the week ending September 16th Canadian crushers crushed 121,942 tons of canola down 10.4% from a week ago

COPA said for the week ending September 16th Canadian crushers crushed 25,841 tons of soybeans down 33.1% from a week ago

Slovenia reported first case of mad cow disease since 2007 on Friday.

Rains in the Midwest over the weekend. Good harvest weather forecasted for this week

Russia and Ukraine have only received half the normal rainfall since early August

  • Dry weather in Russia is delaying planting.
  • Ukraine rapeseed area may be the smallest in almost a decade due to dry weather

China’s General Administration of Customs – China’s August imports

  • Wheat 343,392 tons up 871.72% from a year ago
  • Barley 778,166 tons up 140.71% from a year ago
  • Corn 607,582 tons up 353.98% from a year ago
  • Rice 214,969 tons up 47.78% from a year ago
  • Soybeans 7,786,530 tons up 29.01% from a year ago

o   From Brazil 5,553,289 tons up 27.53% from a year ago

o   From Argentina 1,778,893 tons up 34.91% from a year ago

  • Rapeseed 576,409 up 99.85% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 59,007 tons up 201.68% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 8,693 tons down 64.39% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 111,934 tons down 35.06% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 3,045 tons up 441.73% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 541,964 tons up 74.58% from a year ago
  • DDGS 793,524 tons up 26% from a year ago

China’s General Administration of Customs – China’s January – August imports

  • Wheat 2,039,290 tons down 24.65% from a year ago
  • Barley 7,425,773 tons up 111.11% from a year ago
  • Corn 4,364,729 tons up 173.29% from a year ago
  • Rice 1,956,454 tons up 18.83% from a year ago
  • Soybeans 52,394,509 up 9.81% from a year ago

o   From Brazil 27,910,599 tons up 10.37% from a year ago

o   From US 17,000,555 tons down 1.89% from a year ago

o   From Argentina 5,297,768 tons up 51.78% from a year ago

  • Rapeseed 3,121,681 tons down 8.5% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 532,157 tons down 13.58% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 98,661 tons down 53.89% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 482,419 tons down 40.63% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 47,617 tons up 204.16% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 3,734,265 tons up 2.57% from a year ago
  • DDGS 3.55 million tons down 9.2% from a year ago

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 876 ½   
  • Dec corn 20 day 375 ¾
  • Dec corn 50 day 387 ¾  
  • Dec corn 100 day 387 ¾
  • Dec wheat 20 day 485 ¼
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 483 ½  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 511 ¾
  • Dec meal 20 day 311.30
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.50
  • Dec meal 200 day 318.30
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2705

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 827

o   20 wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

  1. 7 canceled from The Andersons Maumee OH
  2. 13 canceled from CIRM Chicago IL
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 10
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  795

Open interest as of Friday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,244,134 open, up 3,231
  • Total soybeans 679,327 open, up 4,599
  • Total soymeal 385,316 open, down 6,438
  • Total bean oil 426,459 open, up 9,250
  • Total wheat 3802,030 open, up 1,167
  • Total KC wheat 185,718 open, down 1,128

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting

o   Corn and soybean good to excellent conditions to be unchanged to up 1% from a week ago

o   Corn harvest expecting 12-15% complete

o   Bean harvest expecting 4-8% complete

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Flash September PMIs comes out on Wednesday

o   Expecting China’s Sept PMI at 47.5 vs. August PMI of 47.3 , still near 6.5 year lows

  • October options expire on Friday. Options expire on the close
  • Rogers index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Tuesday September 29th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 3 days.
  • China’s Golden Week starts Thursday Oct 1st . China markets will be closed from Oct 1st through October 7th.
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates on Friday October 2nd. Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST.
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE