News From The Grain Floor 09/18/15

USDA announced 25,000 tons of US bean oil sold to Egypt for ‘15/16 shipment

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for October shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX down 2 at 882 ½
  • CZ down ¾ at 379
  • WZ up 2 ¼ at 483 ¾
  • KC WZ up 1 ¼ at 480 ½
  • MWZ up a ¼ at 510 ½
  • SMZ up .60 at 312.90
  • BOZ down 28 at 2659

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,168
  • CZ 13,113
  • WZ 5,512
  • KC WZ 1,178
  • MWZ 218
  • SMZ 4,626
  • BOZ 4,916

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 1,729
  • Wheat 345
  • Beans 3,954
  • Meal 56
  • Bean oil 33

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

239

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

1-Sep

8-Sep

to COT

9-Sep

10-Sep

11-Sep

14-Sep

15-Sep

16-Sep

17-Sep

Estimate

Corn

15929

-23549

-39478

2000

9000

20000

8000

-7000

-7000

-8000

-6549

Wheat

-65825

-84624

-18799

-3000

3000

4000

8000

-4000

-4000

-3000

-83624

Soybeans

-38298

-35375

2923

-6000

1000

1000

5000

6000

-1000

-2000

-31375

Soymeal

39483

36035

-3448

-1000

-1000

4000

3000

4000

-3000

-3000

39035

Soyoil

-24650

-23336

1314

-4000

3000

-4000

2000

-3000

2000

0

-27336

News

Dec Euro at 1.143 up .0030

Nikkei closes down 1.96% , down 1.1% on the week

Hang Seng closes up .3% , up 1.9% on the week

Shanghai Index closes up .4%, down 3.2% on the week

Concerns about global economy.

US Feds leaves interest rates unchanged yesterday afternoon. Some analysts thought the Feds would raise interest rates for the first time in 9 years.

China grain markets closings – beans down 12, corn down 46, meal down 18, palm oil down 20, bean oil down 14

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 24

India’s government raised import tax on edible oils by 5%, effective immediately

Reports China bought at least 23 bean cargoes this week

  • Bought 7 US bean cargoes from the Gulf
  • Bought 7 US bean cargoes from the PNW
  • Bought 3 Brazilian bean cargoes
  • Bought 6 Argentine bean cargoes
  • SinoGrain has been the best Chinese buyer , possibly for China’s bean reserves
  • Chinese trade delegation will come to US next week

Other analysts saying China has bought as much as 10-15 US bean cargoes this week and bought as much as 15-20 South American bean cargoes this week.

Reports China may cut state corn prices by as much as 10% in ‘15/16

  • Corn price cut will be announced after cut approved by China’s cabinet officials

Market talk/ reports Brazil has sold another cargo of corn to the US east coast for October 2016 shipment

  • Talk Brazil has sold up to 10 cargoes (500,000 tons) of new crop corn to US so far.

South Korea KFA bought 25,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Feb shipment

South Korea Daehan bought 51,000 tons of Australian wheat for Feb-March shipment

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s 2015 corn crop at 22.0 – 23.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 28.0 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 28.5 MMT

  • Ag Min said due to hot weather in August Ukraine farmers could lose 5-6 MMT of corn

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister said Russian government may stop its grain market interventions if Russian grain harvest reaches 120-130 MMT per year. Expects Russia grain crop may reach 120-130 MMT in the upcoming years

  • Russia’s Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 grain crop at 100-103 MMT

Taiwan trade delegation sign deals yesterday to buy $3 billion of US grain and soybeans through 2017.

  • Delegation agreed to buy 5.0 MMT of US corn through 2017
  • Delegation agreed to buy 500,000 tons of US corn co-products through 2017
  • Delegation agreed to buy 1.7 MMT of US wheat through 2017
  • Bean volume unknown.

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina crop progress report

  • Estimated 2015 wheat area at 3.7 MH , unchanged from previous estimate, vs. Argentina’s Ag Min estimate of 4.0 MH
  • Estimated 2015 sunflower area at 1.45 MH, unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 2014 area of 1.3 MH
  • Sunflower planting is 21.5% complete vs. 19.5% a week ago and vs. 20.6% a year ago

FranceAgriMer said French corn crop rated 55% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 86% good to excellent a year ago

India’s government – weekly India’s planting progress report

  • Rice crop planted on 37.27 MH vs. 37.19 MH a year ago
  • Coarse cereals planted on 18.27 MH vs. 17.39 MH a year ago
  • Oilseeds planted on 18.23 MH vs. 17.67 MH a year ago

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 878 ½   
  • Dec corn 20 day 376
  • Dec corn 50 day 389 ¼
  • Dec corn 100 day 387 ¾
  • Dec wheat 20 day 486
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 484 ½  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 512 ¼
  • Dec meal 20 day 311.90
  • Dec meal 50 day 323.40
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.60
  • Dec meal 200 day 318.40
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2713

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 847
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69

o   4 bean receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Lacon IL

  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 10
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  795

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,241,836 open, down 1,777
  • Total soybeans 674,759 open, up 1,685
  • Total soymeal 391,781 open , down 1,237
  • Total bean oil 417,228 open, up 2,152
  • Total wheat 378,878 open, up 824
  • Total KC wheat 186,814 open, down 33

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST.
  • Japan markets will be closed Monday-Wednesday for holiday.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-20th palm oil exports on Monday morning.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Chinese trade delegation is coming to the US next week, expected to sign deals to buy “several million” tons of US soybeans on Sept 24th
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Rogers index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Tuesday September 29th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 3 days.
  • China’s Golden Week starts Thursday Oct 1st . China markets will be closed from Oct 1st through October 7th.
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates on Friday October 2nd. Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST.
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE