News From The Grain Floor 09/17/15

USDA announced 298,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Fed announcement today at 1 pm CST.

  • Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates today
  • Most analyst expect Feds will NOT raise interest rates

o   If Feds raise rates it would be the first rate hike since 2006

  • Out of 80 economists polled by Reuters, 35 believe Feds will raise rates , 45 believe Feds will not raise rates.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 ¾ at 881 ½
  • CZ down 4 at 382
  • WZ down 3 ½ at 484 ¾
  • KC WZ down 2 ¾ at 483 ¾
  • MWZ down 2 at 514 ½
  • SMZ down 1.20 at 314.20
  • BOZ down 37 at 2652

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,745
  • CZ 9,986
  • WZ 4,379
  • KC WZ 544
  • MWZ 229
  • SMZ 4,950
  • BOZ 7,437

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,867
  • Wheat 698
  • Beans 1,513
  • Meal 841
  • Bean oil 25

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

1-Sep

8-Sep

to COT

9-Sep

10-Sep

11-Sep

14-Sep

15-Sep

15-Sep

Estimate

Corn

15929

-23549

-39478

2000

9000

20000

8000

-7000

-7000

1451

Wheat

-65825

-84624

-18799

-3000

3000

4000

8000

-4000

-4000

-80624

Soybeans

-38298

-35375

2923

-6000

1000

1000

5000

6000

-1000

-29375

Soymeal

39483

36035

-3448

-1000

-1000

4000

3000

4000

-3000

42035

Soyoil

-24650

-23336

1314

-4000

3000

-4000

2000

-3000

2000

-27336

News

Dec Euro at 1.1342 up .0049

Nikkei closes up 1.43%

Hang Seng closes down .5% after being over 1% higher

Shanghai Index closes down 2.1% , with a dive in the last 30 minutes of trade wiping out early gains.

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at -11K to 264K , expecting 275K

China grain markets closings – beans up 22, corn down 12, soy meal down 1, palm oil up 10, bean oil up 12.

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 64

Reports China bought multiple cargoes of US beans yesterday for shipment in the 4th quarter from both the Gulf and the PNW

Reports Chinese crushers have covered just about 6 MMT of soybean purchases for Oct-Dec shipment about half of what China usually has booked by this time of year.

South Korea NOFI bought 50,000 optional origin feed wheat for March-April shipment

Japan bought 138,855 tons of food wheat for Oct-Nov shipment. Breakdown

  • 32,048 tons of US western white wheat
  • 27,450 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 23,300 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 27,207 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 28,820 tons of Australian white wheat

Cargill Investment in China said China’s ‘15/16 bean imports may fall for the first time in 10 years

Other analysts expect China’s soybean imports would be unchanged in ‘15/16 at 77.0 MMT

Chinese analysts estimated China’s ‘15/16 DDGs imports at 4.5 MMT down 13% from ‘14/15

Stats Canada 2015 Canadian crop estimates

  • Spring wheat production estimated at 18.4 MMT down 13% from 2014
  • Spring wheat yields estimated at 40.5 BPA vs. 45.9 BPA in 2014
  • Canola crop estimated at 14.4 MMT down 12% from a year ago

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat =  ‘15/16 377,500 ‘16/17 133,200 (expecting 275-450,000 tons)
  • Corn = ‘15/16 533,000 (expecting 400 -600,000 tons)
  • Beans =  ‘15/16 912,000 (expecting 900,000 -1.3 million tons)
  • Meal =  ‘14/15 41,000 ‘15/16 198,500 (expecting 100 -230,000 tons)
  • Bean oil =  ‘14/15 12,800 (expecting 0-20,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 377,500 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up 30 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (89,000 MT, including 45,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (56,000 MT), Canada (54,900 MT, including 27,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (30,400 MT), Guatemala (28,000 MT), and Japan (27,300 MT, including 27,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (55,000 MT), the French West Indies (7,500 MT), and Nigeria (1,400 MT). Net sales of 133,200 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for unknown destinations (113,900 MT), Guatemala (6,100 MT), El Salvador (5,500 MT), Barbados (5,200 MT), and Italy (2,500 MT). Exports of 542,600 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior-4 week average. The primary destinations were Brazil (85,900 MT), the Philippines (75,000 MT), Nigeria (74,600 MT), Canada (54,900 MT, including 25,000 MT late reporting), Mexico (45,200 MT), Peru (39,200 MT), and Japan (27,300 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 533,000 MT for delivery in 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Mexico (381,00 MT, including 9,700 MT, late reporting), Japan (55,000 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,900 MT), Peru (39,500 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations),Taiwan (35,900 MT), and Costa Rica (23,300 MT, including 20,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (25,100 MT), Colombia (18,300 MT), and Panama (5,000 MT). Exports of 806,600 MT were primarily to Mexico (346,400 MT, including 9,700 MT late reporting), Japan (192,200 MT), South Korea (60,700 MT), Peru (60,000 MT), Canada (46,400 MT), Colombia (40,600 MT), and Costa Rica (21,300 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 912,000 MT for 2015/2016 were primarily for China (458,500 MT), unknown destinations (210,600 MT), the Netherlands (85,600 MT, including 78,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (81,200 MT, including 40,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,700 MT), and Indonesia (33,900 MT, including 24,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,200 MT). Decreases were reported for Colombia (5,300 MT), the Dominican Republic (3,000 MT), and South Korea (1,900 MT). Exports of 371,400 MT were primarily to Mexico (116,800 MT), the Netherlands (85,600 MT), Japan (60,900 MT), Taiwan (50,700 MT), Indonesia (29,500 MT), and Colombia (17,700 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 41,000 MT for 2014/2015 were up 69 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (29,300 MT), Costa Rica (5,500 MT, including 5,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (2,900 MT), Cuba (2,200 MT), Sri Lanka (1,900 MT), and Colombia (1,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (2,200 MT), Burma (800 MT), and Canada (400 MT). Net sales of 198,500 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for the Philippines (96,300 MT), Mexico (37,900 MT), unknown destinations (30,300 MT), and El Salvador (15,300 MT). Exports of 132,800 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (72,200 MT), Cuba (24,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (18,200 MT), Canada (7,600 MT), Costa Rica (5,500 MT), and Saudi Arabia (1,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 12,800 MT for 2014/2015 were up 96 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (10,000 MT), Mexico (2,600 MT), and Canada (100 MT). Exports of 5,700 MT were down 62 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (4,500 MT), Costa Rica (800 MT), Canada (200 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT).

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 879 ¾  
  • Dec corn 20 day 376 ½
  • Dec corn 50 day 390 ½
  • Dec corn 100 day 387 ¾
  • Dec corn 200 day 400 ¾  
  • Dec wheat 20 day 487 ¾
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 485 ¼  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 513 ¼
  • Dec meal 20 day 312.30
  • Dec meal 50 day 324.10
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.60
  • Dec meal 200 day 318.50
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2719

Deliveries:

  • Rice = 3 with the date at 9-14-15

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 847
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn = 642

o   166 corn receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 156 out of Consolidated Grain and Barge , Utica IL
  • 10 out of ADM, Spring Valley IL
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 73
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 10

o   25 meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon, out of Owensboro Grain Company Owensboro KY

  • Rice = 2,616

o   3 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  795

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,243,606 open, down 4,848
  • Total soybeans 673,147 open, up 3,409
  • Total soymeal 393,063 open, up 2,135
  • Total bean oil 415,077 open, down 1,350
  • Total wheat 378,159 open, down 205
  • Total KC wheat 186,900 open ,up 248

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 pm CST , expecting +72 BCF
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-20th palm oil exports on Monday morning.
  • Chinese trade delegation is coming to the US next week, expected to sign deals to buy “several million” tons of US soybeans on Sept 24th
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

 

 

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE