News From The Grain Floor 09/16/15

FSA put out the wrong data this morning. They will be revising the numbers, no time was given for when the new data will be rereleased .

USDA reported 184,500 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX up a ¼ at 889 ¼
  • CZ down 1 ½ at 389
  • WZ down 1 at 493 ¾
  • KC WZ down 1 ¼ at 491 ¼
  • MWZ down a ½ at 520
  • SMZ down .50 at 316.90
  • BOZ up 21 at 2687

Overnight volume

  • SX 18,743
  • CZ 18,576
  • WZ 8,459
  • KC WZ 1,048
  • MWZ 279
  • SMZ 5,914
  • BOZ 10,822

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,689
  • Wheat 342
  • Beans 3,091
  • Meal 1,189
  • Bean oil 35

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

95

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

1-Sep

8-Sep

to COT

9-Sep

10-Sep

11-Sep

14-Sep

15-Sep

Estimate

Corn

15929

-23549

-39478

2000

9000

20000

8000

-7000

8451

Wheat

-65825

-84624

-18799

-3000

3000

4000

8000

-4000

-76624

Soybeans

-38298

-35375

2923

-6000

1000

1000

5000

6000

-28375

Soymeal

39483

36035

-3448

-1000

-1000

4000

3000

4000

45035

Soyoil

-24650

-23336

1314

-4000

3000

-4000

2000

-3000

-29336

News

Dec Euro at 1.129 up slightly

Nikkei closes up .81%

Hang Seng closes up 2.4%

Shanghai Index closes up 4.9%

FOMC two day policy meeting starts today.  Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST.

  • Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates tomorrow, it has been nine year since Feds have raised interest rates.

S&P downgrades Japan to A+ from AA-

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday at 330 pm

  • Crude a draw of 3.1 MB , expecting a build of 1.2 MB

China grain markets closings – beans down 22, corn up 9, meal down 5, palm oil down 78, bean oil down 58

Malaysian palm oil market closed today for holiday , trading resumes tomorrow.

China on Monday bought 3 Argentina bean cargoes for April – May shipment

Some analysts are saying China bought 10-20 cargoes of new crop South American soybeans this week

Hearing China bought at least one cargo of US beans yesterday off the Gulf for December shipment

China eyeing soybeans for October-November shipment

Chinese trade delegation is coming to the US next week, expected to sign deals to buy “several million” tons of US soybeans on Sept 24th

CNGOIC said China will likely buy 27.0 MMT of US beans in ‘15/16 vs. 29.6 MMT in ‘14/15

CNGOIC estimated China’s total ‘15/16 soybean imports at 78.0 MMT up only 1.0 MMT from ‘14/15

China’s ethanol imports seen increasing in the months ahead.

  • Through July China has bought 126,000 tons of ethanol for 2015 , nearly five times as much as a year ago
  • Bought at least 50,000 tons of ethanol for Aug / Sept shipment

Malaysia and Vietnam seeking soymeal

Mexico seeking corn

Morocco seeks 108,500 tons of domestic soft wheat

South Korea FLC bought 60,000 optional origin feed wheat for March shipment

South Korea NOFI seeks 130,000 optional origin feed wheat for March –April shipment

US Grains Council said a Taiwanese trade delegation is expected to sign a letter of intent this week to buy 5.0 MMT of corn from the US by 2017

Some reports of bean planting delays in Brazil due to dry weather, most think it is too early to be concerned.

Ukraine Ag Min said dry weather has sharply reduced Ukraine’s rapeseed area

  • Area 40% less than planned
  • Ukraine was expected to plant 823,000 hectares
  • Ukraine only planted on 685,000 hectares vs. 2014 of 865,000 hectares

Ukraine Ag Min said as of today Ukraine farmers have harvested 38.3 MMT of grain on 10.6 MH with an average yield of 3.61 TPH . A year ago Ukraine farmers harvested 37.6 MMT of grain on 10.3 MH.

US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 880
  • Dec corn 50 day 391 ½
  • Dec corn 100 day 387 ¾
  • Dec corn 200 day 401
  • Dec wheat 20 day 488 ¼
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 485 ½  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 513 ½
  • Dec meal 20 day 312.10
  • Dec meal 50 day 324.50
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.60
  • Dec meal 200 day 318.60
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2726

Deliveries:

  • Beans = 3 with the date at 9-14-15

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 847
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =808
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 73

o   147 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Lacon IL

  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 35
  • Rice = 2,613
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  795

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,247,495 open, up 2,281
  • Total soybeans 669,798 open, up 6,463
  • Total soymeal 390,894 open, up 6,430
  • Total bean oil 416,561 open, up 1,926
  • Total wheat 378,466 open , up 5,078
  • Total KC wheat 186,653 open , up 1,102

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a build of 1.75 MB

o   Gas a draw of 500,000 barrels

o   Distillates a build of 250,000 barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 pm CST , expecting +72 BCF
  • Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST. – Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates.
  • Chinese trade delegation is coming to the US next week, expected to sign deals to buy “several million” tons of US soybeans on Sept 24th
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE