News From The Grain Floor 09/15/15

NOPA August crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Expecting:

  • Crush average estimate is 135.018  MB, range of estimates are 134.0-137.0 MB,  vs. July crush of 145.227 MB and vs. August 2014 crush of 110.633 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.527  billion lbs. vs. July bean oil stocks of 1.624 billion lbs. and vs. August 2014 bean oil stocks of 1.214 billion lbs.
  • Meal exports , no estimate is given for meal exports. In July meal exports were 590,582 tons and in August 2014 meal export were 263,440 tons.

Weather highlights:

Temperatures will continue to be warm into at least late month which will help corn/soybeans harvesting and winter wheat planting. Some rains in the southern plains into the central belt may slow things a bit from Thursday to Saturday. Of note in Brazil, dry and hot weather is helping early planting.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 3 ¾ at 868 ½
  • CZ down ¾ at 368 ¼
  • WZ up 1 ½ at 473 ¾
  • KC WZ up 1 at 473 ½
  • MWZ down ¾ at 504 ½
  • SMZ down 2.10 at 306.20
  • BOZ up 19 at 2709

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,435
  • CZ 9,951
  • WZ 2,838
  • KC WZ 875
  • MWZ 155
  • SMZ 6,158
  • BOZ 12,062

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,056
  • Wheat 706
  • Beans 2,980
  • Meal 952
  • Bean oil 16

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

799

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

344

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

129

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

79

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

44

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

33

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

490

3

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

3

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

490

2

201605

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

490

1

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

1-Sep

8-Sep

to COT

9-Sep

10-Sep

11-Sep

14-Sep

Estimate

Corn

15929

-23549

-39478

2000

9000

20000

8000

15451

Wheat

-65825

-84624

-18799

-3000

3000

4000

8000

-72624

Soybeans

-38298

-35375

2923

-6000

1000

1000

5000

-34375

Soymeal

39483

36035

-3448

-1000

-1000

4000

3000

41035

Soyoil

-24650

-23336

1314

-4000

3000

-4000

2000

-26336

News

Dec Euro at 1.1323 down .0008

Nikkei closes up .34%

Hang Seng closes down .5%

Shanghai Index closes down 3.5% , was down over 4% at one point overnight

Concerns about China’s economy continues.

FOMC two day policy meeting is tomorrow and Thursday. – Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates. Fed announcement on Thursday at 1 pm CST.

China grain markets closings – beans down 10, corn down 6, meal up 23 , palm oil up 48 and bean oil up 42.

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 45.

China bought at least on cargo of US beans off the Gulf yesterday for December shipment

Japan seeks 138,855 tons of food wheat for Oct-Nov shipment. Breakdown

  • 32,048 tons of US western white wheat
  • 27,450 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 23,300 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 27,207 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 28,820 tons of Australian white wheat

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-15 palm oil exports at 729,834 tons up 3.6% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-15 palm oil exports at 765,322 tons up 6.9% from a month ago

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 2.1 MMT of palm oil in August unchanged from a month ago.

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 1.37 MMT of veg oils in August vs. 1.33 MMT a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 11.7 MMT of veg oils in November – August vs. 9.52 MMT a year ago

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2016 rapeseed crop at 1.0-1.5 MMT vs. 1.7 MMT in 2015 due to dry weather.  

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown:

  • For the week Sept 5-Sept 11 total crush volume at 1,674,600 tons down 14.06% from a week ago
  • For the week Sept 5-11 total crush capacity utilization at 53.39% up 14.06% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014-Sept 11, 2015) crush volume at 72,513,300 tons up 7.02% from a year ago
  • Total 2015 (Jan 1-Sept 11) crush volume at 53,745,900 tons up 9.35% from a year ago
  • As of Sept 11th total imported bean stocks at 6.6438 million tons up 3.07% from a week ago and up 6.16% from a year ago
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 6.81 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 6.20 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 6.50 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.80 MMT , first estimate made.

Soybean planting season starts in parts of Brazil today

Brazil’s IBGE expects Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean planting area to be up 5.8% from a year ago

Brazil’s IBGE estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 96.7 MMT

Talk/reports of possible frost damage to wheat crop  in southern Brazil

Russia’s Ag Min said as of yesterday Russia harvested 83.632 MMT of grain on 33.641 MH with an average yield of 2.49 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 85.073 MMT of grain with an average yield of 2.66 TPH.

US Grains Council estimated the ‘15/16 Indian corn crop at 13.8 MMT vs. ‘14/15 crop of 16.5 MMT  

AgroInfoMarket estimated Spain’s ‘15/16 corn crop at 4.01 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.11 MMT and down 10% from a year ago.

AgroInfoMarket estimated Spain’s ‘15/16 soft wheat crop at 5.22 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.25 MMT and down 6.7% from a year ago

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

Corn

  • Condition – 68% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago , (expecting unchanged to down 1% from a week ago), and vs. 74% good to excellent a year ago
  • Dented – 87% vs. 76% a week ago and vs. 86% five year average
  • Harvested – 5% complete, as expected, vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 9% five year average

Soybeans

  • Condition – 61% good to excellent, down 2% from a week ago, (expecting unchanged to down 1% from a week ago), and vs. 72% good to excellent a year ago.
  • Dropping leaves – 35% vs. 18% a week ago and vs. 31% five year average

Soybean planting by state

  • LA 57% complete vs. 45% a week ago and vs. 44% average
  • MS 34% complete vs. 25% a week ago and vs. 30% average
  • TX 32% complete vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 50% average
  • AR 15% complete vs. 11% a week ago and vs. 14% average
  • AL 11% complete vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 2% average

Spring wheat

  • Harvested – 97% vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 86% five year average

Winter wheat

  • Planting – 9% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 9% five year average

Rice

  • Condition – 62% good to excellent, down 3% from a week ago and vs. 74% a year ago
  • Harvested – 44% vs. 35% a week ago, and vs. 44% five year average

Cotton

  • Condition – 52% good to excellent, down 1% from a week ago and vs. 49% good to excellent a year ago
  • Bolls opening – 46% vs. 31% a week ago and vs. 51% five year average

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 880 ¾
  • Dec corn 50 day 392 ½
  • Dec corn 100 day 387 ¾
  • Dec corn 200 day 401 ¼
  • Dec wheat 20 day 489
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 486 ¼
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day  514
  • Dec meal 20 day 311.80
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.50
  • Dec meal 200 day 318.70
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2738

Deliveries:

  • Beans = 70 with date current
  • Soymeal = 35 with date current

o   House Term issued 10

  • Bean oil = 127 with date current
  • Rice = 72 with date current
  • Corn = 238 with date current

o   House ADM stopped 10

o   House Term stopped 50

  • KC wheat = 18 with date current
  • Chicago wheat = 28 with date current

o   House Term stopped 9

  • Minneapolis wheat 1 with date current

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 847
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =808
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 220
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 35

o   10 new meal receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of Louis Dreyfus Claypool IN

  • Rice = 2,613

o   16 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  795

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,245,617 open, down 4,407
  • Total soybeans 663,543 open, up 2,382
  • Total soymeal 384,634 open, up 4,209
  • Total bean oil 414,627 open, down 1,871
  • Total wheat 373,541 open, down 4,301
  • Total KC wheat 186,134 open, up 8.

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Updated FSA acreage data comes out tomorrow morning. This FSA data will be included in the USDA October report. Expecting

o   1.0 million less bean acres

o   200,000 less corn acres

  • FOMC two day policy meeting is tomorrow  and Thursday
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a build of 1.75 MB

o   Gas a draw of 500,000 barrels

o   Distillates a build of 250,000 barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Fed announcement Thursday at 1 pm CST. – Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates.
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE