News From The Grain Floor 09/14/15

September Futures expire today at noon CST.  

Weather Highlights

Warm/hot weather should help beans/corn harvest and wheat harvest in the next 10/15 days…mainly dry conditions should help as well planting and harvesting.

See below for maps.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 6 ¾ at 881
  • CZ up 1 at 388
  • WZ up 3 at 488
  • KC WZ up 1 ½ at 483 ¾
  • MWZ up ¾ at 512 ¼
  • SMZ  up 1.10 at 310.40
  • BOZ up 40 at 2725

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,506
  • CZ 27,199
  • WZ 6,815
  • KC WZ 1,117
  • MWZ 334
  • SMZ 6,412
  • BOZ 12,231

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 7,775
  • Wheat 1,792
  • Beans 2,989
  • Meal 121
  • Bean oil 153

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

238

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

380

151

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

144

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

118

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

51

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

26

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

480

12

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

480

12

Funds/COT Commentary

The latest COT was about as expected in the soy complex with very little changes week to week. On the other hand, it showed  a change from long 16k corn  to short 24k cot to cot…since last Tuesday, we estimate funds bought about 30k lots of corn (most of it on Friday following the USDA report) so they should be back to a small long as of this morning. Wheat saw a bit more shorts than expected with funds currently holding about 80k shorts.

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

1-Sep

8-Sep

to COT

9-Sep

10-Sep

11-Sep

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

15929

-23549

-39478

2000

9000

20000

7451

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-65825

-84624

-18799

-3000

3000

4000

-80624

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

-38298

-35375

2923

-6000

1000

1000

-39375

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

39483

36035

-3448

-1000

-1000

4000

38035

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

-24650

-23336

1314

-4000

3000

-4000

-28336

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

COT Corn Fund Position:

COT Wheat Fund Position:

COT Soybeans Fund Position:

COT Soymeal Fund Position:

COT Soyoil Fund Position:

News

Dec Euro 1.1320 down .0033

Nikkei closes down 1.63%

Hang Seng closes up .3%

Shanghai Index closes down 2.7%

Concerns about Chinese economy continues

China’s August Industrial output came out last night at +6.1% , expecting +6.8% vs. July of +6.0% and vs. June of +6.8%

China’s fixed asset investment rose at the slowest pace in 15 years in August

FOMC two day policy meeting is Wednesday and Thursday. – Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates. Fed announcement on Thursday at 1 pm CST.

OPEC Monthly Report

  • 2015 oil demand growth estimated at 1.46 M B/D up 84,000 B/D from previous estimate
  • 2016 oil demand growth estimated at 1.29 M B/D down 50,000 B/D from previous estimate
  • Aug oil production at 31.54 M B/D up 13,000 B/D from July
  • Estimated 2015 total oil consumption at 92.79 M B/D
  • Estimated 2016 total oil consumption at 94.08 M B/D
  • 2015 total US oil supply cut by 170,000 B/D
  • Said remains to be seen if US supply slowdown rebalances market in the months to come.

China grain markets closings – beans down 2, corn down 11, meal up 26, palm oil down 48, and bean oil down 36

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 59, over seven week high.

Malaysia to keep October palm oil export tax at 0% unchanged from current

China bought at least 2 cargoes of US beans on Friday for late 2014 shipment . One cargo off the Gulf and one cargo from the PNW

Bangladesh canceled tender to buy 50,000 optional origin wheat.

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia will raise grain purchase price and may ease export duty.

Kazakhstan’s Ag Min estimated Kazakhstan’s ‘15/16 grain exports at 7.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.0 MMT  

India’s summer corn output is likely to drop more than 15% this year due to drought.

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 882 ¼
  • Dec corn 50 day 393 ¼
  • Dec corn 100 day 387 ¾
  • Dec corn 200 day 401 ¼
  • Dec wheat 20 day 488 ½
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 487
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 513 ½
  • Dec meal 20 day 311.70
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.40
  • Dec meal 200 day 318.80
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2750

Deliveries:

  • Beans = 220 with the date at 9/04/15

o   House ADM issued 220

  • Soymeal = 25 with the date at 8/27/15
  • Bean oil = 41 with the date at 9/04/15
  • Rice = 25 with the date current
  • Corn = 231 with the date at 9/09/15

o   House ADM issued 17

  • KC wheat = 49 with the date at 9/04/15
  • Chicago wheat = 20 with the date current
  • No Minneapolis wheat

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 847
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =808
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 220

o   220 new bean receipts were registered Friday afternoon out of ADM Lacon IL

  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 25

o   22 meal receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Owensboro Grain Company , Owensboro KY.

  • Rice = 2,597
  • KC wheat = 223

o   41 new KC wheat receipts were registered Friday afternoon out of Cargill Salina KS

  • Minneapolis wheat =  795

Open interest as of Friday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,251,021 open , down 881
  • Total soybeans 661,226 open , up 7,575
  • Total soymeal 380,727 open, up 2,079
  • Total bean oil 416,528 open , up 4,487
  • Total wheat 377,892 open , up 4,104
  • Total KC wheat 186,217 open , up 1,162

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will come out tomorrow morning with their Malaysian palm oil Sept 1-15th palm oil export estimates.  
  • NOPA August crush report comes out tomorrow. NOPA comes out at 11 am CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • Updated FSA acreage data comes out on Wednesday.
  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Wednesday  and Thursday
  • Fed announcement Thursday at 1 pm CST. – Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates.
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE