News From The Grain Floor 09/11/15

USDA announced 180,000 US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

USDA September crop production and supply and demand report comes out today at 11 am CST. See below for estimates and see attachment for recap table.

Weather Highlights

Rains should end in the corn belt today and this should be followed by 5 to 7 days of dry weather which will help accelerate corn/beans harvesting and winter wheat planting…especially with temperatures warming up again soon above normal. Some rains may return but only late next week. See below for maps.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 ½ at 876 ½
  • CZ up a ¼ at 374 ½
  • WZ down a ½ at 477 ½
  • KC WZ down a ¼ at 477 ¼
  • MWZ down 1 ¼ at 507 ½
  • SMZ  up 1.20 at 307.90
  • BOZ down 6 at 2711

Overnight volume

  • SX 7,406
  • CZ 11,275
  • WZ 5,028
  • KC WZ 338
  • MWZ 131
  • SMZ 3,728
  • BOZ 6,461

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,609
  • Wheat 72
  • Beans 3,717
  • Meal 237
  • Bean oil 3

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

125

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

110

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

380

98

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

68

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

67

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

64

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

33

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

15

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

7

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

4

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

25-Aug

1-Sep

to COT

2-Sep

3-Sep

4-Sep

8-Sep

9-Sep

10-Sep

Estimate

Corn

18646

15929

-2717

-5000

-8000

4000

6000

2000

9000

23929

Wheat

-41980

-65825

-23845

-6000

-8000

2000

4000

-3000

3000

-73825

Soybeans

-24071

-38298

-14227

0

-3000

-4000

7000

-6000

1000

-43298

Soymeal

49874

39483

-10391

2000

-2000

-2000

3000

-1000

-1000

38483

Soyoil

-20963

-24650

-3687

-5000

0

-4000

5000

-4000

3000

-29650

News

Dec Euro 1.1295 down .0006

Nikkei closes down .19% , up 2.7% on week

Hang Seng closes down .3%, up 3.2% on week

Shanghai Index closes up .1%, up 1.3% on week.

Traders waiting for weekend economic releases from China

Uncertainty about US interest rates. FOMC meets next week

China grain markets closings – beans up 32, corn up 11, meal up 1, palm oil up 48, bean oil up 42

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 23

Philippines bought 110,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia for Jan –Feb shipment

Philippines bought 90,000 tons of US soymeal for Jan-Feb shipment

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Sept 10th farmers have harvested 37.71 MMT of grain on 10.132 MH with an average yield of 3.7 TPH. A year ago farmers had harvested 36.4 MMT of grain on 10.0 MH with an average yield of 3.6 TPH

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2015 grain crop at 60.5 MMT vs. 2014 crop of 63.8 MMT

Russia Ag Min said as of Sept 10th farmers have harvested 80.7 MMT of grain on 32.0 MH with an average yield of 2.52 TPH. A year ago farmers had harvested 83.0 MMT of grain on 30.8 MH with an average yield of 2.69 TPH

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina crop progress report

  • Estimated ‘15/16 wheat area at 3.7 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said ‘14/15 corn crop is 100% harvested
  • Estimated ‘14/15 corn crop at 26.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 26.0 MMT
  • Said sunflower plating is 19.5% complete vs. 16.7% a week ago and vs. 8.0% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘15/16 sunflower area at 1.45 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘14/15 area of 1.3 MH

CONAB came out this morning with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. CONAB will start estimating ‘15/16 crops in October.

  • ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 96.2 MMT , previously estimated at 96.2 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 86.1 MMT
  • ‘14/15 bean exports estimated at 50.0  MMT , previously estimated at 49.1 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 exports of 45.7 MMT
  • ‘14/15 total corn crop estimated at 84.7 MMT , previously estimated at 84.3 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 80.1 MMT
  • ‘14/15 corn exports estimated at 26.4 MMT, previously estimated at 26.4 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 exports of 20.9 MMT
  • ‘14/15 total grain crop estimated at 209.5  MMT , previously estimated at 208.8 MMT

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat – ‘15/16 290,400 ‘16/17 7,500 (expecting 250-500,000 tons)
  • Corn –  ‘15/16 411,200 (expecting 300-600,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘15/16 1.79 million tons  (expecting 1.0-1.5 million tons)
  • Meal – ‘14/15 24,300 ‘15/16 128,000 (expecting 55- 300,000 tons)
  • Bean oil –  ‘14/15 6,600 (expecting -10,000 to 25,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 290,400 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Vietnam (52,500 MT, including 29,500 MT switched from unknown destinations, 14,500 MT switched from Indonesia, and decreases of 10,200 MT), Mexico (47,400 MT), Colombia (45,000 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), Italy (41,700 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Japan (35,900 MT), and Brazil (30,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (83,100 MT), Israel (16,300 MT), and Indonesia (2,200 MT). Net sales of 7,500 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Panama. Exports of 500,400 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 6 percent from the prior-4 week average. The primary destinations were Vietnam (74,700 MT), Guatemala (51,500 MT), Indonesia (48,200 MT), South Korea (44,900 MT), Colombia (44,000 MT), Italy (43,400 MT), and Malaysia (40,700 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales for the 2015/2016 marketing year, which began September 1, totaled 411,200 MT. Increases reported for Colombia (186,500 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,600 MT), Mexico (71,900 MT), South Korea (60,800 MT), Japan (40,800 MT, switched from unknown destinations), the Dominican Republic (31,100 MT), and Venezuela (30,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (84,900 MT). A total of 1,427,100 MT in sales were carried over from the 2014/2015 marketing year, which ended August 31. Exports for the period ending August 31 of 640,900 MT brought accumulated exports to 45,845,500 MT, down 3 percent from the prior year’s total of 47,375,100 MT. The primary destinations were Japan (193,400 MT), Colombia (113,400 MT), Mexico (105,900 MT), South Korea (63,800 MT), and Guatemala (34,900 MT). Exports for September 1-3 totaled 267,400 MT, with Mexico (121,500 MT), Colombia (65,500 MT), Japan (40,800 MT), and Venezuela (30,000 MT) being the primary destinations.
  • Beans – : Net sales for the 2015/2016 marketing year, which began September 1, totaled 1,790,200 MT. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (994,400 MT), China (658,400 MT, including 49,600 MT late reporting), Mexico (38,800 MT), and Taiwan (23,300 MT). Net sales of 1,000 MT for 2016/2017 were for Japan. A total of 822,900 MT in sales were carried over from the 2014/2015 marketing year, which ended August 31. Exports for the period ending August 31 of 187,500 MT brought accumulated exports to 49,801,300 MT, up 12 percent from the prior year’s total of 44,526,100 MT. The primary destinations were Pakistan (66,000 MT), China (49,600 MT), Malaysia (24,900 MT), Mexico (23,600 MT), and Japan (11,700 MT). Exports for September 1-3 totaled 21,100 MT, with Colombia (11,000 MT), Japan (3,200 MT), Indonesia (3,100 MT), and Vietnam (2,000 MT) being the primary destinations.
  • Meal – Net sales of 24,300 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Guatemala (13,200 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, 800 MT switched from El Salvador, and decreases of 500 MT), El Salvador (12,600 MT, including 13,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 600 MT), Mexico (10,100 MT), the Philippines (9,500 MT), and Canada (4,300 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (27,000 MT), Peru (8,400 MT), and the Dominican Republic (500 MT). Net sales of 128,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Mexico (50,300 MT), Denmark (40,000 MT), Canada (11,100 MT), and Honduras (7,100 MT). Exports of 144,900 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (35,300 MT), the Philippines (28,200 MT), Colombia (21,800 MT), Guatemala (17,000 MT), El Salvador (14,500 MT), and Canada (9,600 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 6,600 MT for 2014/2015 were up 64 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Jamaica (3,500 MT), Mexico (3,100 MT), and the United Arab Emirates (100 MT). Decreases of 200 MT were reported for Guatemala. Exports of 15,300 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Guatemala (6,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), Mexico (3,000 MT), and El Salvador (1,400 MT).

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 6 with the date at 9/04/15
  • Rice 98 with the date current
  • Corn 212 with the date at 9/08/15

o   ADM house issued 140

  • KC wheat 14 with the date at 9/03/15
  • Chicago wheat 101 with the date current
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No meal
  • No beans

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 847

o   50 new wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon , The Andersons Maumee OH

  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =808

o   347 corn receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon , ADM , Ottawa and Spring Valley IL

  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 47
  • Rice = 2,597

o   5 new rice receipts were registered yesterday

  • KC wheat = 182
  • Minneapolis wheat =  795

o   51 new Minneapolis wheat receipts were registered yesterday

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,251,925 open, up 17,215
  • Total soybeans 653,701 open, up 1,205
  • Total soymeal 378,665 open, up 916
  • Total bean oil 412,040 open, up 1,462
  • Total wheat 373,797 open, up 3,567
  • Total KC wheat 184,965 open, up 1,307

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Moments of silence today in Chicago for the victims of September 11th will be 7:18-7:19 am CST and 8:28-8:29 am CST
  • Moments of silence today in New York for the victims of September 11th will be 8:46-8:47, 9:03-904, 9:59-10:00 , and 10:29-10:30 am EST.
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out today at 11 am CST. See below for estimates
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Last trading day for September futures is Monday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST.
  • FOMC two day policy meeting September 16-17
  • NOPA August crush report is Tuesday Sept 15th . NOPA comes out at 11 am CST
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Estimates for today’s USDA report

Estimates are based on what analysts think the USDA will report today.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.559 BB, range of estimates are 13.471 -13.870 BB. USDA August estimate was 13.686 BB and ‘14/15 US final corn production was 14.216 BB
  • Corn yield (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 167.6 BPA, range of estimates are 166.1 -170.5 BB. USDA August estimate was 168.8 BPA and ‘14/15 US final corn yield was 171.0 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 81.122 MA, range of estimates are 81.100-81.351 MA. USDA August estimate was 81.101 MA and ‘14/15 US final corn harvested acres were 83.136 MA  
  • Soybean production (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.869 BB, range of estimates are 3.791-3.935 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.916 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean production was 3.969 BB
  • Soybean yield (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 46.4 BPA, range of estimates are 45.4 – 47.1 BPA. USDA August estimate was 46.9 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean yield was 47.8 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (11 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 83.486 MA, range of estimates are 83.100 – 83.549 MA. USDA August estimate was 83.549 MA and ‘14/15 US final soybean harvested acres were 83.061 MA

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.761 BB, range of estimates are 1.722 -1.779 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.772 BB
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .223 BB, range of estimates are .200- .240 BB. USDA August estimate was .240 BB.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .865 BB, range of estimates are .850 -.885 BB. USDA August estimate was .850 BB
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.643 BB, range of estimates are 1.511 -1.832 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.713 BB
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .415 BB, range of estimates are .336 -.475 BB. USDA August estimate was .470 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 209.84 MMT, range of estimates are 209.00 -212.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 209.66 MMT.
  • Corn (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 197.05 MMT, range of estimates are 196.03 -197.70 MMT. USDA August estimate was 197.42 MMT.
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 80.15 MMT, range of estimates are 79.37 – 81.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 80.57 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 221.90 MMT, range of estimates are 220.00-224.00 MMT . USDA August estimate was 221.47 MMT
  • Corn (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 193.44 MMT, range of estimates are 192.00 – 195.50 MMT . USDA August estimate was 195.09 MMT
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 86.21 MMT, range of estimates are 85.03 -87.50 MMT . USDA August estimate was 86.88 MMT

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE