News From The Grain Floor 09/10/15

Weather highlights:

  • Some thunderstorms reached the corn belt yesterday…focusing on the delta. Temperatures were still warmer than normal but started to cool down. Temperatures will now turn sharply cooler through Saturday  with maximums in the 60s and minimums in the 40s…some rains with take place across the southeast 2/3 of the central U.S. until tomorrow but it won’t be a well organized system. So conditions for corn/soybeans harvesting and winter wheat plantings should be good starting Sunday and for about 5 to 10 days. The next chance for organized rainfall is for September 17-20.
  • See below for maps

Overnight closes

  • SX down 3 ¾ at 868 ½
  • CZ down ¾ at 368 ¼
  • WZ up 1 ½ at 473 ¾
  • KC WZ up 1 at 473 ½
  • MWZ down ¾ at 504 ½
  • SMZ down 2.10 at 306.20
  • BOZ up 19 at 2709

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,435
  • CZ 9,951
  • WZ 2,838
  • KC WZ 875
  • MWZ 155
  • SMZ 6,158
  • BOZ 12,062

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,056
  • Wheat 706
  • Beans 2,980
  • Meal 952
  • Bean oil 16

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

370

4,706

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

370

2,957

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

441

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

217

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

212

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

550

105

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

105

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

68

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

32

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

18

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

8

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

480

8

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

480

8

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

25-Aug

1-Sep

to COT

2-Sep

3-Sep

4-Sep

8-Sep

9-Sep

Estimate

Corn

18646

15929

-2717

-5000

-8000

4000

6000

2000

14929

Wheat

-41980

-65825

-23845

-6000

-8000

2000

4000

-3000

-76825

Soybeans

-24071

-38298

-14227

0

-3000

-4000

7000

-6000

-44298

Soymeal

49874

39483

-10391

2000

-2000

-2000

3000

-1000

39483

Soyoil

-20963

-24650

-3687

-5000

0

-4000

5000

-4000

-32650

News

Dec Euro 1.125 up .0012

Nikkei closes down 2.51%

Hang Seng closes down 2.6%

Shanghai Index closes down 1.4%

Concerns about Chinese economy continues.

Uncertainty about US interest rates. FOMC meets next week

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -6K to 275K, as expected

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon. Crude a build of 2.1 MB, expecting a build of 933,000 barrels

China grain markets closings – beans down 10, corn down 12, meal down 2, palm oil down 22, and bean oil down 16

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 43

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out today with their August palm oil data report.

  • August palm oil stocks at 2,494,807 tons vs. average estimate of 2.41 MMT and vs. July stocks of 2.265 MMT
  • August palm oil exports at 1,607,938 tons vs. average estimate of 1.63 MMT and vs. July exports of 1.602 MMT
  • August palm oil output at 2,051,000 tons vs. average estimate of 2.0 MMT and vs. July output of 1.816 MMT

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports at 514,972 tons up 5.9% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports at 517,600 tons up 3.7% from a month ago

China bought a cargo of US beans from the PNW for October shipment yesterday

Philippines seeks 120,000 tons of soymeal for Jan-Feb shipment

Jordan retenders for 100,000 tons of wheat and 100,000 tons of barley , optional origin

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 corn planting area at 3.3 MH down 23% from ‘14/15

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 27.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.8 MMT

Report on Reuters said soy seed sales in Argentina are down as much as 40% vs. a year ago as tight finances prompt farmers to use up their seed stocks or buy on cheaper black market.

  • Decline comes even as Argentina farmers are expected to plant more soybeans than a year ago as they shift away from corn.

Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 97.1 MMT up 1.2% from ‘14/15

Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean planting area at 32.2 MH up 2.3% from ‘14/15

Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 total corn crop at 87.0 MMT

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 safrinha corn crop is 95% harvested

UN FAO estimates

  • Estimated ‘15/16 global cereals output at 2.540 billion tons
  • Estimated ‘15/16 global cereals stocks at 643.2 million tons
  • Estimated ‘15/16 global wheat output at 728.4 million tons

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 20 day 373 ¼
  • Dec meal 20 day 312.50
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.40
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2773

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 99 with the date at 9/04/15
  • Rice 40 with the date current
  • Corn 72 with the date at 9/08/15

o   ADM House issued 9

  • KC wheat 5 with the date at 9/02/15
  • Chicago wheat 79 with the date current
  • Minneapolis wheat 51 with the date at 9/02/15
  • Oats 1 with the date current
  • No meal
  • No beans

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 797
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =1,155

o   48 corn receipts were canceled yesterday out of ADM Spring Valley IL and Ottawa IL

  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 47

o   53 meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Owensboro Grain Co. Owensboro KY

  • Rice = 2,592
  • KC wheat = 182
  • Minneapolis wheat =  744

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,234,878 open, up 9,633
  • Total soybeans 652,625 open, down 2,053
  • Total soymeal 377,767 open, down 438
  • Total bean oil 410,670 open, up 274
  • Total wheat 370,561 open, up 5,186
  • Total KC wheat 183,595 open, up 1,424

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST , expecting +77 BCF
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 10 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a build of 850,000 barrels

o   Gas a draw of 76,000 barrels

o   Distillates a build of 825,000 barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow morning with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. CONAB will start estimating ‘15/16 crops in October. Previous estimates from CONAB were

o   ‘14/15 bean crop previously estimated at 96.2 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 86.1 MMT

o   ‘14/15 bean exports previously estimated at 49.1 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 45.7 MMT

o   ‘14/15 total corn crop previously estimated at 84.3 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 80.1 MMT

o   ‘14/15 corn exports previously estimated at 26.4 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 20.9 MMT

o   2015 wheat crop previously estimated at 7.00 MMT

o   ‘14/15 total grain crop previously estimated at 208.8 MMT

  • Moments of silence tomorrow in Chicago for the victims of September 11th will be 7:18-7:19 am CST and 8:28-8:29 am CST
  • Moments of silence tomorrow in New York for the victims of September 11th will be 8:46-8:47, 9:03-904, 9:59-10:00 , and 10:29-10:30 am EST.
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST. See below for estimates
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • FOMC two day policy meeting September 16-17
  • Last trading day for September futures is Monday Sept 14th . Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA August crush report is Tuesday Sept 15th . NOPA comes out at 11 am CST
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Estimates for Friday’s USDA report

Estimates are based on what analysts think the USDA will report on Friday .

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.559 BB, range of estimates are 13.471 -13.870 BB. USDA August estimate was 13.686 BB and ‘14/15 US final corn production was 14.216 BB
  • Corn yield (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 167.6 BPA, range of estimates are 166.1 -170.5 BB. USDA August estimate was 168.8 BPA and ‘14/15 US final corn yield was 171.0 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 81.122 MA, range of estimates are 81.100-81.351 MA. USDA August estimate was 81.101 MA and ‘14/15 US final corn harvested acres were 83.136 MA  
  • Soybean production (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.869 BB, range of estimates are 3.791-3.935 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.916 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean production was 3.969 BB
  • Soybean yield (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 46.4 BPA, range of estimates are 45.4 – 47.1 BPA. USDA August estimate was 46.9 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean yield was 47.8 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (11 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 83.486 MA, range of estimates are 83.100 – 83.549 MA. USDA August estimate was 83.549 MA and ‘14/15 US final soybean harvested acres were 83.061 MA

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.761 BB, range of estimates are 1.722 -1.779 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.772 BB
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .223 BB, range of estimates are .200- .240 BB. USDA August estimate was .240 BB.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .865 BB, range of estimates are .850 -.885 BB. USDA August estimate was .850 BB
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.643 BB, range of estimates are 1.511 -1.832 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.713 BB
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .415 BB, range of estimates are .336 -.475 BB. USDA August estimate was .470 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 209.84 MMT, range of estimates are 209.00 -212.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 209.66 MMT.
  • Corn (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 197.05 MMT, range of estimates are 196.03 -197.70 MMT. USDA August estimate was 197.42 MMT.
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 80.15 MMT, range of estimates are 79.37 – 81.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 80.57 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 221.90 MMT, range of estimates are 220.00-224.00 MMT . USDA August estimate was 221.47 MMT
  • Corn (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 193.44 MMT, range of estimates are 192.00 – 195.50 MMT . USDA August estimate was 195.09 MMT
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 86.21 MMT, range of estimates are 85.03 -87.50 MMT . USDA August estimate was 86.88 MMT

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE