News From The Grain Floor 09/09/15

Weather Highlights

Rains were active yesterday in Illinois and Wisconsin but did not reach the eastern corn belt and delta. Temperatures were still warmer than normal but started to cool down. More rains will move across the central U.S. into Friday with the wettest areas in the southeast third of the belt and delta. Following that, drying follows and warming takes place which should improve conditions for corn harvesting and winter wheat planting.  See below for maps.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 ¾ at 883
  • CZ up 1 ¾ at 370
  • WZ up 4 ¼ at 479 ¼
  • KC WZ up 2 ½ at 479 ½
  • MWZ up 3 ¼ at 508 ¼
  • SMZ  up 1.20 at 309.80
  • BOZ up 19 at 2736

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,260
  • CZ 15,997
  • WZ 7,313
  • KC WZ 674
  • MWZ 307
  • SMZ 4,996
  • BOZ 10,967

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 6,045
  • Wheat 406
  • Beans 5,180
  • Meal 128
  • Bean oil 15

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

270

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

370

234

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

550

134

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

370

115

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

50

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

41

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

570

35

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

27

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

27

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

20

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

19

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

14

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

470

4

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

470

4

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

25-Aug

1-Sep

to COT

2-Sep

3-Sep

4-Sep

8-Sep

Estimate

Corn

18646

15929

-2717

-5000

-8000

4000

6000

12929

Wheat

-41980

-65825

-23845

-6000

-8000

2000

4000

-73825

Soybeans

-24071

-38298

-14227

0

-3000

-4000

7000

-38298

Soymeal

49874

39483

-10391

2000

-2000

-2000

3000

40483

Soyoil

-20963

-24650

-3687

-5000

0

-4000

5000

-28650

News

Dec Euro 1.154 down .0049

Reports China will do more to stimulate its slowing economy . China’s finance ministry last night said that the country would roll  out a “more forceful” fiscal policy to boost its economy.

Nikkei closes up 7.71% , biggest percentage gains since Oct 2008

Hang Seng closes up 4.1% , biggest one day percentage gain since Dec 2011

Shanghai Index closes up 2.3%

China grain markets closings – beans up 26, corn up 13, meal up 23, palm oil up 76 and bean oil up 58

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 22

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Board Chairman said Indonesia’s 2015 palm oil output may be reduced due to dry weather, production estimate 300-450,000 tons below 2015 target of 31.5 MMT. 2016 palm oil output may fall 6% if severe El Nino hits Indonesia.

South Korea MFG bought 60,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Jan-Feb shipment

Taiwan bought 56,000 tons of US wheat for Nov shipment

Japan bought 11,690 tons of feed wheat and 1,000 tons of barley via SBS tender for Dec shipment

Japan seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Dec shipment

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s Sept soybean imports at 5.07 MMT

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s Sept bean oil imports at 81,697 tons

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s Sept palm oil imports at 189,389 tons.

Bloomberg article said Brazilian soybean planting may be delayed due to unfavorable weather. Brazilian soybean planting expected to start next week.

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 21.21 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.95 MMT and up 20% from ‘13/14

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

Corn

  • Condition 68% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago (expecting 1-2% lower than a week ago) and vs. 74% a year ago
  • Doughing 96% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 95% five year average
  • Dented 76% vs. 60% a week ago and vs. 75% five year average

Corn harvest by state

  • LA 96% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 94% average
  • MS 83% vs. 68% a week ago and vs. 76% average
  • GA 87% vs. 78% a week ago and vs. 80% average
  • SC 81% vs. 65% a week ago and vs. 70% average
  • AR 61% vs. 44% a week ago and vs. 62% average
  • TX 52% vs. 50% a week ago and vs. 55% average
  • NC 44% vs. 29% a week ago and vs. 42% average
  • AL 39% vs. 22% a week ago and vs. 32% average
  • TN 6% vs. 7% a year ago and vs. 31% average
  • KY 7% vs. 7% a year ago and vs. 20% average
  • MO 7% vs. 2% a week ago and vs. 18% average
  • IL 2% vs. 1% a week ago and vs. 6% average

Beans

  • Condition 63% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago (expecting 1-2% lower than a week ago) and vs. 72% a year ago
  • Dropping leaves 18% vs. 9% a week ago and vs. 16% five year average
  • Setting pods 96% vs. 93% a week ago and vs. 99% five year average

Bean harvest by state

  • LA 45% vs. 32% a week ago and vs. 32% average
  • MS 25% vs. 17% a week ago and vs. 19% average
  • TX 24% vs. 19% a week ago and vs. 39% average
  • AR 11% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 9% average
  • AL 3% complete.

Spring wheat

  • Harvested 94% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 76% five year average

Winter wheat

  • Planted 3% vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 3% five year average

Rice

  • Condition 65% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 74% a year ago
  • Harvested 35% vs. 26% a week ago and vs. 34% five year average

Cotton

  • Condition 53% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 49% a year ago
  • Bolls opening 31% vs. 22% a week ago and vs. 38% five year average
  • Setting bolls 95% vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 100% five year average

Moving averages

  • Nov beans 20 day 889
  • Dec corn 20 day 373
  • Dec meal 20 day 312.80
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.50
  • Dec meal 200 day 319.10
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2786

Deliveries

  • Soy meal 47 with the date at 8-06-15
  • Bean oil 39 with the date at 9-03-15
  • Rice 25 with the date at 9-03-15
  • Corn 767 with the date current

o   ADM House stopped 534

  • KC wheat 9 with the date at 9-02-15
  • Chicago wheat 94 with the date current
  • Minneapolis wheat 4 with the date at 8-28-15
  • No beans

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 797
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =1,203
  • Ethanol = 0

o   2 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Argo IL

  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 100
  • Rice = 2,592

o   10 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 182

o   2 KC wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Wichita KS.

  • Minneapolis wheat =  744

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,225,254 open, up 2,469
  • Total soybeans 654,634 open, down 3,860
  • Total soymeal 378,208 open, down 2,050
  • Total bean oil 410,343 open, up 6,152
  • Total wheat 365,359 open, up 1,140
  • Total KC wheat 182,171 open, down 335

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their August palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey , expecting

o   August palm oil stocks average estimate is 2.41 MMT vs. July stocks of 2.265 MMT

o   August palm oil exports average estimate is 1.63 MMT vs. July exports of 1.602 MMT

o   August palm oil output average estimate is 2.0 MMT vs. July output of 1.816 MMT

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • CONAB comes out Friday morning with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. CONAB will start estimating ‘15/16 crops in October. Previous estimates from CONAB were

o   ‘14/15 bean crop previously estimated at 96.2 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 86.1 MMT

o   ‘14/15 bean exports previously estimated at 49.1 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 45.7 MMT

o   ‘14/15 total corn crop previously estimated at 84.3 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 80.1 MMT

o   ‘14/15 corn exports previously estimated at 26.4 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 20.9 MMT

o   2015 wheat crop previously estimated at 7.00 MMT

o   ‘14/15 total grain crop previously estimated at 208.8 MMT

  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST.
  • FOMC two day policy meeting September 16-17
  • Last trading day for September futures is Monday Sept 14th . Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA August crush report is Tuesday Sept 15th . NOPA comes out at 11 am CST
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE