News From The Grain Floor 09/08/15

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US corn sold to Mexico for ‘15/16 shipment

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

Weather Highlights

  • The warm weather should end by Thursday…coolness will follow in all areas but a warmer pattern returns early next week. Rains take place in the southeast half of the belt today and tomorrow followed by at least one week of dry conditions for early harvesting.. See below for maps

Overnight closes

  • SX up 8 ¾ at 875 ¼
  • CZ up 5 at 368
  • WZ up 8 at 475 ¾
  • KC WZ up 5 at 479 ¾
  • MWZ up 5 ½ at 508 ¾
  • SMZ  up 1.10 at 307.90
  • BOZ up 50 at 2723

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,515
  • CZ 20,758
  • WZ 9,693
  • KC WZ 1,120
  • MWZ 115
  • SMZ 8,758
  • BOZ 16,028

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,709
  • Wheat 1,555
  • Beans 1,189
  • Meal 34
  • Bean oil 521

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

1,158

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

1,141

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

380

640

201512

KC HRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

510

265

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

251

201512

KC HRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

480

139

201512

KC HRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

490

126

201512

KC HRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

470

98

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

94

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

90

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

76

201512

KC HRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

490

49

201512

KC HRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

500

49

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

490

14

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

490

8

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

7

201605

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

490

6

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

550

3

Funds/COT

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

25-Aug

1-Sep

to COT

2-Sep

3-Sep

4-Sep

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

18646

15929

-2717

-5000

-8000

4000

6929

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-41980

-65825

-23845

-6000

-8000

2000

-77825

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

-24071

-38298

-14227

0

-3000

-4000

-45298

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

49874

39483

-10391

2000

-2000

-2000

37483

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

-20963

-24650

-3687

-5000

0

-4000

-33650

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News

Dec Euro 1.1190 up .0020

Nikkei closes down 2.43%

Hang Seng closes up 3.3%

Shanghai Index closes up 2.9% after being 2.0% lower

China’s August Trade  Balance Report from Monday

  • August exports -5.5% , expecting -5.2%
  • August imports -13.8%, expecting -7.9%
  • August trade surplus $60.24 billion , expecting a surplus of $48.6 billion

China grain markets closings today – beans down 22, corn up 3, meal up 7, palm oil up 26, and bean oil up 38

China grain market closings on Monday – beans down 41, corn up 5, meal down 19, palm oil down 40, and bean oil down 36

Malaysian palm oil market today close up 42

Malaysian palm oil market on Monday closed up 17

Pakistan bought 66,000 tons of Brazilian beans for July shipment

South Korea MFG seeks 65,000 optional origin feed for Jan-Feb shipment

China customs data from Monday

  • China imported 7.78 MMT of beans in Aug down 18% from a year ago
  • China imported 52.39 MMT of beans between Jan- Aug up 9.8% from a year ago
  • China imported 620,000 tons of edible oils in August down 30% from a year ago
  • China imported 4.23 MMT of edible oils between Jan-Aug down 10% from a year ago

CNGOIC China ‘15/16 estimates

  • ‘15/16 corn production estimated at 229 MMT (still record) vs. previous estimate of 232 MMT
  • ‘15/16 barley imports estimated at 6.5 MMT vs. 9.0 MMT in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 sorghum imports estimated at 7.0 MMT vs. 10.0 MMT in ‘14/15

ABARES ‘15/16 Australian crop estimates

  • ‘15/16 wheat production estimated at 25.28 MMT vs. 23.6 MMT previously
  • ‘15/16 canola production estimated at 3.15 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.96 MMT

Indonesia Ag Min estimated Indonesia’s 2016 corn production at 21.35 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘15/16 wheat exports at 15.9 MMT vs. 11.2 MMT in ‘14/15

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘15/16 corn exports at 16.9 MMT vs. 18.8 MMT in ‘14/15

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 20 day 374
  • Dec meal 20 day 313.90
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.50
  • Dec meal 200 day 319.30

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 26 with the date at 9/03/15
  • Meal 100 with the date at 9/03
  • Corn 845 with the date current

o   House ADM stopped 52

o   House Term stopped 252

o   House Rand issued 125

  • Ethanol 2 with the date 9/03/15

o   House ADM stopped 1

  • Chicago wheat 95 with the date at 9/03
  • KC wheat 11 with the date at 9/03/15
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No beans

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 797
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =1,203

o   66 new corn receipts were registered Friday afternoon out of CHS Inc. Pekin IL

  • Ethanol = 2

o   2 new ethanol receipts were registered Friday afternoon out of Argo IL

  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 100

o   100 new meal receipts were registered Friday afternoon out of Owensboro Grains Company , Owensboro , KY

  • Rice = 2,582
  • KC wheat = 184
  • Minneapolis wheat =  744

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,222,542 open, up 4,176
  • Total soybeans 658,747 open, up 43
  • Total soymeal 380,312 open, up 3,446
  • Total bean oil 404,294 open, up 2,089
  • Total wheat 364,336 open, down 383
  • Total KC wheat 182,147 open, up 591

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report will come today at 3 pm CST . Expecting corn and bean good to excellent conditions to fall 1% from a week ago
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out with their August palm oil data report on Thursday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports on Thursday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report will come out on Thursday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report will come out on Thursday at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report will come out on Thursday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report will come out  on Thursday at 10 am CST
  • CONAB comes out on Friday with their final ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimates. CONAB will start estimating ‘15/16 in October.  
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST
  • FOMC two day policy meeting September 16-17
  • Last trading day for September futures is Monday Sept 14th . Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA August crush report is Tuesday Sept 15th . NOPA comes out at 11 am CST
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December 

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE