News From The Grain Floor 09/03/15

USDA announced 773,400 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ’15/16

USDA also announced 110,000 US beans sold to China for ’15/16 shipment

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for October shipment

  • Late last week they bought 55,000 Ukrainian wheat for October shipment
  • Late last week they bought 60,000 Russian wheat for October shipment

Informa will come out today at 1030 am CST. Previous estimates from Informa were

  • 2015 corn crop estimated at 13.412 BB vs. USDA August estimate of 136.69 BB
  • 2015 corn yield estimated at 165.4 BPA vs. USDA August estimate of 168.8 BPA
  • 2015 bean crop estimated 3.789 BB vs. USDA August estimate of 3.916 BB
  • 2015 bean yield estimated at 45.4 BPA vs. USDA August estimate of 46.9 BPA

Weather highlights

  • Warm weather continues into Monday-Tuesday with temps 5F to 10F above normal. Cooler temperatures follow starting Tuesday with below normal readings seen for at least one week (with minimums in the 40’s and 50’s). Soil temperatures remain too warm for a significant freeze to take place over the next 2 weeks.  See below for maps.

Overnight closes

  • SX down ¾ at 873 ¼
  • CZ down 3 ¼ at 364 ¼
  • WZ down 4 ¼ at 474 ¾
  • KC WZ down 2 ¼ at 472 ½
  • MWZ down 2 at 506 ¼
  • SMZ down 1.40 at 308.90
  • BOZ up 25 at 2735

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,192
  • CZ 14,319
  • WZ 16,225
  • KC WZ 1,247
  • MWZ 731
  • SMZ 6,749
  • BOZ 10,061

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,639
  • Wheat 573
  • Beans 1,205
  • Meal 7
  • Bean oil 64

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

355

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

112

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

70

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

37

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

17

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

18-Aug

25-Aug

to COT

26-Aug

27-Aug

28-Aug

31-Aug

1-Sep

2-Sep

Estimate

Corn

15347

18646

3299

-6000

5000

0

1000

-10000

-5000

3646

Wheat

-37562

-41980

-4418

-4000

-5000

-5000

2000

1000

-6000

-58980

Soybeans

247

-24071

-24318

-9000

8000

5000

3000

-8000

0

-25071

Soymeal

42705

49874

7169

-3000

-1000

-3000

-1000

-3000

2000

40874

Soyoil

-23221

-20963

2258

-6000

6000

7000

1000

-6000

-5000

-23963

News

Dec Euro at 1.147 down .0110

China and Hong Kong markets are closed today and tomorrow for holiday.

Nikkei up .48%

Hang Seng closed , trading resumes Monday

Shanghai Index closed , trading resumes Monday

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +12K to 282K, expecting 275K

China grain markets closed today and tomorrow for holiday , trading resumes Monday

Malaysian palm oil market closed 45 higher.

Yesterday, Algeria bought 400-450,000 tons of optional origin (possibly French and Black Sea origin) milling wheat for Oct shipment , viewed prices as very low,  paid about $195 -$196 a ton .

Analysts expecting record high global wheat stocks in ‘15/16

Hearing China bought 3-5 cargoes of US beans off the Gulf this week

China bought a cheap cargo of Canadian canola for Nov shipment, price of $420 C&F,  yesterday

South Korea NOFI bought 52,000 South American or Chinese origin soymeal for Feb shipment

South Korea mills bought 51,200 tons of US wheat

Taiwan seeks 56,000 tons of US wheat for Nov shipment

Jordan seeks 100,000 hard wheat optional origin for Nov-Jan  shipment

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for Nov-Jan shipment

Brazilian July bean crush record high of 3.710 MMT vs. 3.665 MMT in June. Earlier Argentina and the US reported record soybean crush for July also.

Analysts estimating Brazil Aug bean crush at 3.45 MMT

Argentina farmers have planted 4.0 MH of wheat for the ‘15/16 shipment , down 24% from a year ago. Analysts saying Argentina’s sharp cut in wheat area may cause Brazil to import more US HRW wheat.  

Stats Canada July 31st stock reports came out this morning.

  • All wheat at 7.11  MMT vs. average estimate of 6.5 MMT and vs.10.351 MMT a year ago
  • Durum at 6.13  MMT vs. average estimate of 1.1 MMT and vs. 1.779 MMT a year ago
  • Canola at 2.32 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.4 MMT and vs. 2.438 MMT a year ago
  • Oats at .681  MMT vs. average estimate of .7 MMT and vs. 1.034 MMT a year ago
  • Barley at 1.2174 MMT vs. average estimate of .9 MMT and vs. 1.95 MMT a year ago
  • Flax at  .97 MMT vs. average estimate .098 MMT and vs. .084 MMT a year ago .

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat- ‘15/16 277,600 ‘16/17 400 (expecting 250-500,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘14/15 122,700, ‘15/16 328,300 (expecting 500 -900,000 tons)
  • Beans- ‘14/15 -60,400 ‘15/16 1,532,800 (expecting 550-950,000 tons)
  • Meal- ‘14/15 -13,900 ‘15/16 218,400 (expecting 50-200,000 tons)
  • Bean oil –‘14/15 4,000 ‘15/16 2,100 (expecting 5-40,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 277,500 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were down 48 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (75,300 MT), Italy (63,800 MT, including 33,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 900 MT), the Philippines (56,900 MT, including 36,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), Taiwan (49,400 MT), Nigeria (42,200 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,800 MT), and Japan (27,600 MT, including 24,300 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (122,300 MT). Exports of 530,400 MT were up 49 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior-4 week average. The primary destinations were Japan (132,900 MT), the Philippines (116,900 MT), Italy (74,300 MT), Mexico (58,900 MT), Nigeria (44,000 MT), Peru (36,200 MT), and Venezuela (23,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 112,700 MT for delivery in 2014/2015 were up noticeably from previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (173,700 MT, including 169,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,100 MT), South Korea (64,000 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Egypt (55,000 MT), Colombia (26,900 MT, including 22,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,000 MT), and Honduras (16,100 MT, including 14,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (252,400 MT), the French West Indies (6,000 MT), Canada (5,600 MT), and El Salvador (3,300 MT). Net sales of 328,300 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (132,200 MT), Panama (60,000 MT), Canada (47,300 MT), Mexico (45,600 MT), and Japan (32,200 MT). Decreases were reported for Jamaica (12,000 MT) and the French West Indies (2,000 MT). Exports of 1,077,200 MT were up 31 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (341,800 MT), Mexico (324,000 MT), South Korea (64,200 MT), Colombia (61,700 MT), Egypt (55,000 MT), Taiwan (48,700 MT), and Honduras (47,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales reductions of 60,500 MT for 2014/2015 were up 54 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (33,100 MT, including 29,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 600 MT), Indonesia (16,600 MT, including 25,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 11,500 MT), Colombia (6,600 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Vietnam (1,900 MT), and Mexico (1,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (119,700 MT), Panama (300 MT), and Taiwan (300 MT). Net sales of 1,532,800 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (947,700 MT), China (489,600 MT), and Mexico (31,200 MT). Exports of 147,800 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (40,700 MT), Japan (34,800 MT), Indonesia (28,300 MT), and Taiwan (28,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales reductions of 13,900 MT for 2014/2015 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (19,200 MT), Honduras (9,800 MT, including 8,800 MT switched from unknown destinations), Ecuador (8,600 MT, including 9,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 900 MT), Panama (6,400 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and the Philippines (6,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Venezuela (30,000 MT), unknown destinations (29,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (9,200 MT), and the French West Indies (2,700 MT). Net sales of 218,400 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for the Philippines (86,000 MT), unknown destinations (51,400 MT), Ecuador (33,000 MT), and Mexico (31,200 MT). Exports of 212,000 MT were up 87 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (44,700 MT), Ecuador (41,600 MT), Mexico (39,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (23,400 MT), and Honduras (20,800 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 4,000 MT for 2014/2015 were down 77 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (2,600 MT), Nicaragua (1,500 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT). Decreases of 300 MT were reported for Canada. Net sales of 2,100 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico (1,300 MT) and Canada (800 MT). Exports of 13,500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (10,000 MT), Mexico (2,100 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,000 MT).

Deliveries

  • Corn 1,036 with the date at 9/01/15

o   House Term stopped 55

o   House ADM issued 345

  • Bean oil 440 with the date current
  • Chicago wheat 422 with the date at 8/28/15

o   Customer ABN issued 377

  • KC Wheat 143 with the date current
  • Minneapolis wheat 214 with the date at 8-28-15
  • Rice 496 with the date current
  • No beans
  • No meal

Moving averages

  • SMZ 20 day at 317.00
  • SMZ 100 day at 315.60
  • SMZ 200 day at 319.50

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 797
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =1,137

o   345 new corn receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of ADM Spring Valley IL

  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,562
  • KC wheat = 184
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,213,606 open, up 1,244
  • Total soybeans 656,976 open, up 523
  • Total soymeal 374,601 open, up 5,077
  • Total bean oil 400,212 open, up 2,466
  • Total wheat 365,822 open, down 1,783
  • Total KC wheat 180,950 open, up 1,086

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting +84 BCF
  • China and Hong Kong markets are closed tomorrow.
  • US July unemployment comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm SCT
  • US markets will be closed Monday September 7th for Labor Day Holiday . See attachment for holiday trading schedule. Friday normal trade session, overnight markets will not be open Sunday night and will be open Monday night for Tuesday’s trade date.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out with their August palm oil data report on Thursday Sept 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports on Thursday Sept 10th
  • CONAB comes out on Friday September 11th with their final ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimates. CONAB will start estimating ‘15/16 in October.  
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday 9-11-15 at 11 am CST
  • FOMC two day policy meeting September 16-17
  • Last trading day for September futures is Monday Sept 14th . Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA August crush report is Tuesday Sept 15th . NOPA comes out at 11 am CST
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE