News From The Grain Floor 09/02/15

Weather highlights

  • Warm weather continues into early next week before cooler conditions begin. More rains are in the forecast today for the next few days…with some drier areas of Illinois and Indiana seeing rain in addition to western areas. There is no frost risk seen for at least the next 2 weeks.  See below for maps.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 at 877
  • CZ down a ½ at 368 ¼
  • WZ down 1 ¼ at 485
  • KC WZ down a ½ at 481 ¾  
  • MWZ down ¾ at 510 ¾
  • SMZ up 1.80 at 309.90
  • BOZ down 13 at 2742

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,627
  • CZ 40,870
  • WZ 8,264
  • KC WZ 992
  • MWZ 872
  • SMZ 8,209
  • BOZ 10,628

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,523
  • Wheat 807
  • Beans 1,818
  • Meal 145
  • Bean oil 36

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

4,864

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

2,282

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

281

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

46

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

40

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

38

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

27

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

500

21

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

15

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

11

201605

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

10

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

5

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

18-Aug

25-Aug

to COT

26-Aug

27-Aug

28-Aug

31-Aug

1-Sep

Estimate

Corn

15347

18646

3299

-6000

5000

0

1000

-10000

8646

Wheat

-37562

-41980

-4418

-4000

-5000

-5000

2000

1000

-52980

Soybeans

247

-24071

-24318

-9000

8000

5000

3000

-8000

-25071

Soymeal

42705

49874

7169

-3000

-1000

-3000

-1000

-3000

38874

Soyoil

-23221

-20963

2258

-6000

6000

7000

1000

-6000

-18963

News

Euro 1.1242 down .0052

Nikkei down .39%

Hang Seng down 1.2%

Shanghai Index down .2%

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon , crude a build of 7.6 MB  expecting a build of 32,000 barrels

Concerns about China’s economy continues

China grain market closes = beans up 3, corn up 1, meal up 3, palm oil down 6, bean oil down 18

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 22

South Korea MFG bought 204,000 tons of optional origin corn for Feb shipment

South Korea MFG bought 60,000 tons of US, or South American soymeal  soy meal for Feb shipment

South Korea seeks 165-210,000 tons of optional origin corn for Feb shipment

South Korea seeks 20-55,000 tons of South American or India soymeal for Feb shipment

South Korea seeks 50,000 tons of Australian wheat for Feb shipment

Reports/rumors continue that China will likely drop its minimum corn price by 20% from a year ago

FC Stone US 2015 crop estimates from yesterday – see attachment for state by state breakdown

  • FC Stone estimated total 2015 US corn crop estimated at 13.457 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.381 BB and vs. USDA August estimate of 136.69 BB
  • FC Stone estimated total 2015 US corn yield estimated at 165.9 BPA vs. previous estimate of 165.0 BPA and vs. USDA August estimate of 168.8 BPA
  • FC Stone estimated total 2015 US bean crop estimated at 3.797 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.791 BB and vs. USDA August estimate of 3.916
  • FC Stone estimated total 2015 US bean yield estimated at 45.4 BPA vs. previous estimate of 45.0 BPA and vs. USDA August estimate of 46.9 BPA

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 427 with the date current

o    House Bunge stopped 4

  • Rice 277 with the date current
  • Corn 645 with the date at 8/21/15

o   House ADM issued 308

  • KC wheat 184 with the date at 8/06/15
  • Chicago wheat 45 with the date at 45
  • Oats 1 with the date at 8/26/15
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No beans
  • No meal

Moving averages

  • CZ 20 day at 377 ½
  • SMZ 20 day at 317.80
  • SMZ 100 day at 315.60
  • SMZ 200 day at 319.70

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 797

o   22 new wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =792

o   308 new corn receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • Ethanol = 0

o   4 ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,562

o   84 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 184

o   183 new KC wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,213,022 open, up 15,781
  • Total soybeans 656,955 open, up 1,118
  • Total soymeal 101,439 open, up 422
  • Total bean oil 397,754 open, up 3,660
  • Total wheat 367,604 open, down 4,057
  • Total KC wheat 179,860 open, up 876

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a build of 700,000 barrels

o   Gas a draw of 2.0 million barrels

o   Distillates a build of 1.0 million barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Informa will come out sometime next week (possibly Wednesday or Thursday) at 1030 am CST. Previous estimates from Informa were

o   2015 corn crop estimated at 13.412 BB

o   2015 corn yield estimated at 165.4 BPA

o   2015 bean crop estimated 3.789 BB

o   2015 bean yield estimated at 45.4 BPA

  • Weekly US jobless claims come out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada July 31st stock reports comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting

o   All wheat average estimate 6.5 MMT vs. 10.351 MMT a year ago

o   Durum average estimate 1.1 MMT vs. 1.779 MMT a year ago

o   Canola average estimate 1.4 MMT vs. 2.438 MMT a year ago

o   Oats average estimate .7 MMT vs. 1.034 MMT a year ago

o   Barley average estimate .9 MMT vs. 1.95 MMT a year ago

o   Flax average estimate .098 MMT vs. .084 MMT a year ago

  • China markets are closed tomorrow and Friday for holiday.
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Thursday at 930 am CST. Expecting +84 BCF
  • US July unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out Friday at 230 pm SCT
  • US markets will be closed Monday September 7th for Labor Day Holiday . See attachment for holiday trading schedule. Friday normal trade session, overnight markets will not be open Sunday night and will be open Monday night for Tuesday’s trade date.
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday 9-11-15 at 11 am CST
  • FOMC two day policy meeting September 16-17
  • Last trading day for September futures is Monday Sept 14th . Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA August crush report is Tuesday Sept 15th . NOPA comes out at 11 am CST
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE