News From The Grain Floor 09/01/15

FC Stone comes out today at about 3 pm CST with their US crop estimate updates. FC Stone’s previous estimates were

  • 2015 corn crop estimated at 13.381 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.69 BB
  • 2015 corn yield estimated at 165.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 168.8 BPA
  • 2015 bean crop estimated at 3.797 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.916 BB
  • 2015 bean yield estimated at 45.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 46.9 BPA

Weather highlights

  • It will be the warmest period (relative to normal) of the growing season for about one week. Following that, a cooler pattern will take place with some rain keeping western corn and beans areas moist to wet while eastern areas will likely remain drier than normal. See below for maps

Overnight closes

  • SX down 8 ¼ at 879 ¼
  • CZ down 4 at 371 ¼
  • WZ up 2 at 487
  • KC WZ down a ½ at 487 ¼
  • MWZ up 1 at 515 ½
  • SMZ down 1.80 at 309.50
  • BOZ down 37 at 2788

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,433
  • CZ 17,715
  • WZ 11,282,
  • KC WZ 1,678
  • MWZ 856
  • SMZ 4,321
  • BOZ 14,233

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,997
  • Wheat 530
  • Beans 1,965
  • Meal 132
  • Bean oil 85

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

4,864

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

2,282

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

281

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

46

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

40

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

38

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

27

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

500

21

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

15

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

11

201605

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

10

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

5

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

18-Aug

25-Aug

to COT

26-Aug

27-Aug

28-Aug

31-Aug

Estimate

Corn

15347

18646

3299

-6000

5000

0

1000

18646

Wheat

-37562

-41980

-4418

-4000

-5000

-5000

2000

-53980

Soybeans

247

-24071

-24318

-9000

8000

5000

3000

-17071

Soymeal

42705

49874

7169

-3000

-1000

-3000

-1000

41874

Soyoil

-23221

-20963

2258

-6000

6000

7000

1000

-12963

News

Euro 1.1272 up .0033

Nikkei down 3.84%

Hang Seng down 2.24%

Shanghai Index down 1.2%

August final manufacturing PMI’s came out last night/this morning

  • China official at 49.7 (3 year low), as expected  vs. July final of 50.0
  • The Caixin China at 47.3 , expecting 47.1 vs. July final of 47.8
  • Euro zone at 52.3 , expecting 52.4, and vs. July final of 52.4
  • UK at 51.5, expecting 51.9 , and vs. July final of 51.9
  • German at 53.3 , expecting 53.2, and vs. July final of 51.8
  • French at 48.3, expecting 48.6, and vs. July final of 49.6

Concerns about China’s economy continues

Today is the start of a new month

China grain market closes = beans up 23, corn down 40, meal down 28, palm oil up 16, and bean oil down 2

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 19

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Aug palm oil exports at 1,542,017 tons up .16% from July

India’s August palm oil imports hit record high

South Korea MFG seeks 120,000 tons of US, SA , and or China soymeal for Feb-March shipment

Japan seeks 126,805 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada for Oct-Nov shipment

Cordonnier estimated 2015 US corn yield at 165.0 BPA , unchanged from previous estimate

Cordonnier estimated 2015 US bean yield at 46.0 BPA, unchanged from previous estimate

Oil World estimated ‘15/16 global soybean output at 315.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 312.8 MMT

Farm Futures survey – 2016 US acreage estimates (surveyed farmers from July 17-Aug 3)

  • Corn acres estimated at 89.65 MA vs. 88.9 MA a year ago
  • Soybean acres estimated at 86.32 MA (record) vs. 84.3 MA a year ago
  • Wheat acres estimated at 55.87 MA vs. 56.1 MA a year ago

EIA ethanol production for June was 29.684 million barrels versus 29.666 million barrels in May.

This equates to 445 million bushels of corn and compares to the USDA estimate of 441 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production in June.

USDA will issue their estimate of corn grind for ethanol for the month of July today.

Russian government considers whether a change to wheat export duty is needed

Argentina Farmers selling as of Aug 19th

  • ‘14/15 wheat crop 92.86% sold vs. 67.53% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn crop 65.72% sold vs. 63.72% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 bean crop 63.40% sold vs. 55.49% a year ago

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

Corn

  • Condition – 68% good to excellent, down 1% from a week ago (as expected) and vs. 74% good to excellent a year ago
  • Dough – 92% vs. 85% a week ago and vs.% five year average
  • Dented – 60% vs. 39% a week ago and vs. 60% five year average

Corn harvest by state

  • LA 92% complete vs. 87% a week ago vs. 63% a year ago and vs. 85% average
  • MS 68% complete vs. 52% a week ago vs. 39% a year ago and vs. 57% average
  • GA 78% complete vs. 62% a week ago vs. 71% a year ago and vs. 68% average
  • AR 44% complete vs. 25% a week ago vs. 17% a year ago and vs. 47% average
  • SC 65% complete vs. 45% a week ago vs. 59% a year ago and vs. 52%
  • AL 22% vs. 14% a week ago vs. 19% a year ago and vs. 22% average
  • MO 2% complete vs. 11% average
  • IL 1% complete vs. 3% average

Soybeans

  • Condition – 63% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged to down 1% from a year ago and vs. 72% good to excellent a year ago
  • Dropping leaves – 9% vs. 5% a year ago , and vs. 7% five year average
  • Setting pods – 93% vs. 87% a year ago and vs. 95% five year average 

Bean Harvest by state

  • LA 32% complete vs. 15% a week ago vs. 21% a year ago and vs. 20% average
  • MS 17% complete vs. 8% a week ago vs. 8% a year ago and vs. 9% average
  • AR 5% vs. 1% a week ago vs. 0% a year ago and vs. 4% average

Spring Wheat

  • Harvested – 88% vs. 75% a week ago and vs. 62% five year average

Rice

  • Condition – 66% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and vs. 74% a year ago
  • Headed – 97% vs. 94% a week ago and vs.% five year average
  • Harvested 26% vs. 18% a week ago and vs. 25% five year average

Cotton

  • Condition – 54% good to excellent , up 1% from a week ago and vs. 50% a year ago
  • Bolls opening – 22% vs. 14% a week ago and vs. 27% five year average
  • Setting pods -94% vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 96% five year average

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 475 with the date current
  • Rice 410 with the date current
  • Corn 477 with the date at 7-24-15
  • KC wheat 1 with the date at 1-27-15
  • Chicago wheat 27 with the date at 7-17-15
  • Minneapolis wheat 249 with the date at 8-28-15

o   House ADM issued 72

  • Oats 6 with the date at 8-12-15
  • No beans
  • No meal

Moving averages

  • CZ 20 day 378 ½
  • BOZ 20 day 2872
  • SMZ 20 day at 319.10
  • SMZ 100 day at 315.60
  • SMZ 200 day at 319.80

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 775
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =484

o   220 new corn receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of CGB Utica IL

  • Ethanol = 4

o   44 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,478
  • KC wheat = 1
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,197,585 open, down 7,341
  • Total soybeans 655,843 open, up 7,677
  • Total soymeal 369,272 open, down 1,744
  • Total bean oil 394,107 open, down 5,126
  • Total wheat 371,619 open, up 4,582
  • Total KC wheat 178,893 open, up 1,161

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a build of 700,000 barrels

o   Gas a draw of 2.0 million barrels

o   Distillates a build of 1.0 million barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Informa will come out sometime next week (possibly Wednesday or Thursday) at 1030 am CST. Previous estimates from Informa were

o   2015 corn crop estimated at 13.412 BB

o   2015 corn yield estimated at 165.4 BPA

o   2015 bean crop estimated 3.789 BB

o   2015 bean yield estimated at 45.4 BPA

  • Stats Canada July 31st stock reports comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST . Expecting

o   All wheat average estimate 6.5 MMT vs. 10.351 MMT a year ago

o   Durum average estimate 1.1 MMT vs. 1.779 MMT a year ago

o   Canola average estimate 1.4 MMT vs. 2.438 MMT a year ago

o   Oats average estimate .7 MMT vs. 1.034 MMT a year ago

o   Barley average estimate .9 MMT vs. 1.95 MMT a year ago

o   Flax average estimate .098 MMT vs. .084 MMT a year ago

  • China markets are closed Thursday and Friday for holiday.
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Thursday at 930 am CST. Expecting +84 BCF
  • US July unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • USDA Sept crop production and supply and demand report comes out Friday Sept 11th at 11 am  
  • FOMC two day policy meeting September 16-17
  • Argentina president elections on October 25th , Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE