News From The Grain Floor 08/31/15

USDA announced 125,000 tons of beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 delivery.

Today is month end.

Today is first notice day for September futures . Deliveries were

  • Bean oil 545 with the date current, expecting 1,500 -2,500
  • Corn 90 with the date at 9-04-14, expecting 100-500
  • Wheat 310 with the date at 7-17-201 , expecting 0-500

o   House Bunge issued 310

o   Customer JP Morgan stopped 12

  • KC wheat 1 with the date at 1-27-15, expecting 0-200

o   Customer JP Morgan stopped 1

  • Minneapolis wheat 353 with the date at 8-26-15, expecting 200-600

o   House Term stopped 353

  • Rice 1,361 with the date current
  • Oats 6 with the date at 6-30-15

Weather highlights

  • See below for maps

Overnight closes

  • SX down 9 ¼ at 876 ½
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 372 ¾
  • WZ down 4 at 479 ¾
  • KC WZ down 3 ½ at 480
  • MWZ down 3 ¼ at 508 ¼
  • SMZ down 1.30 at 311.40
  • BOZ down 61 at 2756

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,671
  • CZ 17,300
  • WZ 10,084
  • KC WZ 1,164
  • MWZ 374
  • SMZ 4,151
  • BOZ 8,564

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 1,437
  • Wheat 1,560
  • Beans 1,400
  • Meal 256
  • Bean oil 7

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

4,734

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

380

1,048

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

311

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

220

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

860

143

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

69

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

40

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

12

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

18-Aug

25-Aug

to COT

26-Aug

27-Aug

28-Aug

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

15347

18646

3299

-6000

5000

0

17646

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-37562

-41980

-4418

-4000

-5000

-5000

-55980

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

247

-24071

-24318

-9000

8000

5000

-20071

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

42705

49874

7169

-3000

-1000

-3000

42874

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

-23221

-20963

2258

-6000

6000

7000

-13963

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News

Euro at 1.123 up .0048

Nikkei closed down 1.28%

Hang Seng closed up .3%. Down 12% in August , 4th straight month decline

Shanghai Index closed down .8% , Down 12.5% in Aug 3rd straight month decline

China grain market closes = beans down 36, corn down 37, meal down 24, palm oil up 18, bean oil down 2

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 69

Intertek estimated August Malaysian palm oil exports at 1,525,389 tons down 1.2% from July

Dryness concerns in Ukraine and parts of Russia

Moving averages

  • CZ 20 day at 378 ¾
  • SMZ 20 day 319.80
  • SMZ 100 day 315.50
  • SMZ 200 day 320.00

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 775

o   310 new receipts were registered  Friday afternoon out of Bunge

  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 48
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,478

o   24 new rice receipts were registered Friday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 1
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,204,897 open, down 45,757
  • Total soybeans 648,283 open, 7,958
  • Total soymeal 371,538 open, down 6,123
  • Total bean oil 399,237 open, down 3,409
  • Total wheat 367,049 open, up 916
  • Total KC wheat 177,832 open, down 3,811

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspections report on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report on Monday at 3 pm CST. Expecting good to excellent conditions to be steady to down 1% from a week ago in corn and beans
  • August PMIs come out tonight/tomorrow morning .
  • FC Stone comes out on Tuesday at about 3 pm CST with their US crop estimate updates. FC Stone’s previous estimates were

o   2015 corn crop estimated at 13.381 BB

o   2015 corn yield estimated at 165.0 BPA

o   2015 bean crop estimated at 3.797 BB

o   2015 bean yield estimated at 45.0 BPA

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Informa will come out sometime next week at 1030 am CST. Previous estimates from Informa were

o   2015 corn crop estimated at 13.412 BB

o   2015 corn yield estimated at 165.4 BPA

o   2015 bean crop estimated 3.789 BB

o   2015 bean yield estimated at 45.4 BPA

  • Stats Canada July 31st stock reports comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST . Expecting

o   All wheat average estimate 6.5 MMT vs. 10.351 MMT a year ago

o   Durum average estimate 1.1 MMT vs. 1.779 MMT a year ago

o   Canola average estimate 1.4 MMT vs. 2.438 MMT a year ago

o   Oats average estimate .7 MMT vs. 1.034 MMT a year ago

o   Barley average estimate .9 MMT vs. 1.95 MMT a year ago

o   Flax average estimate .098 MMT vs. .084 MMT a year ago

  • US July unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • USDA Sept crop production and supply and demand report comes out Friday Sept 11th at 11 am  
  • FOMC two day policy meeting September 16-17
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE