News From The Grain Floor 08/28/15

Today is position day for September futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery. Monday is first notice day. Delivery expectations for tonight are (see below for receipt registrations)

  • No beans
  • No meal
  • Bean oil – 1,000 -2,000
  • Wheat 50-300
  • KC wheat 0-200
  • Minneapolis wheat 0-200
  • Corn 500 -1,000

Egypt GASC is in for wheat again today for October shipment

  • Yesterday Egypt GASC bought 60,000 tons of Russian wheat for Oct shipment

Weather highlights

  • See below for maps

Overnight closes

  • SX up 4 ½ at 883 ½
  • CZ up 1 ¼ at 376 ¼
  • WZ up a ½ at 490 ¼
  • KC WZ up a ½ at 488 ¾
  • MWZ up 1 ¼ at 514 ¾
  • SMZ up .10 at 315.10
  • BOZ up 32 at 2756

Overnight volume

  • SX 22,751
  • CZ 31,440
  • WZ 6,684
  • KC WZ 1,204
  • MWZ 309
  • SMZ 6,742
  • BOZ 13,251

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 5,132
  • Wheat 426
  • Beans 1,814
  • Meal 6
  • Bean oil 41

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

129

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

127

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

30

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

28

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

10

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

5

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

11-Aug

18-Aug

to COT

19-Aug

20-Aug

21-Aug

24-Aug

25-Aug

26-Aug

27-Aug

Estimate

Corn

46693

15347

-31346

4000

4000

-10000

10000

-7000

-6000

5000

15347

Wheat

-46675

-37562

9113

1000

6000

-4000

4000

-6000

-4000

-5000

-45562

Soybeans

44117

247

-43870

-9000

10000

-10000

-15000

4000

-9000

8000

-20753

Soymeal

59428

42705

-16723

-2000

6000

-3000

3000

2000

-3000

-1000

44705

Soyoil

-9949

-23221

-13272

-5000

0

-6000

-6000

5000

-6000

6000

-35221

News

Euro 1.1252 down .0016

Nikkei closed up 3.03%

Hang Seng closed down 1.0%, down 3.6% for the week

Shanghai Index closed up 4.8% , down 7.9% for the week

Annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hole WY continues ends tomorrow .

China grain market closes = beans down 8, corn up 5, meal up 27, palm oil up 126, and bean oil up 116

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 66.

Hearing China bought some US bean cargoes off the Gulf yesterday.

Talk of increased Brazilian demand for US HRW wheat due to problems with Argentina wheat crop.

Morocco bought US soy meal

Hearing US new crop soybean exports are down 43% from a year ago

  • Sales to China down 76% from a year ago , slowest since ‘08/09

Planalytics Inc. estimated 2015 US corn yield at 166.8 BPA vs. previous estimate of 167.2 BPA

Planalytics Inc. estimated 2015 US bean yield at 46.2 BPA vs. 45.9 BPA previously.

CME Group says it will raise margins on CBOT soybeans, soy oil and rough rice futures effective with Friday’s close. Details at  http://bit.ly/1WVkG9I .

FC Stone estimated ‘15/16 Australian wheat crop at 26.0 MMT vs. ABARE estimate of 23.6 MMT

Indian industry official estimated India’s 2015 soybean production at 9-9.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.0 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 8.8 MMT

FranceAgriMer said for the week to Aug 24th corn conditions are 56% good to excellent up 1% from the week before

Argentina July crush at 4.746 MMT (record) up 3.3% from a year ago

Argentina farmers five day crop sales strike ends today. Analysts saying the strike will NOT be extended.

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange-weekly  Argentina crop progress report

  • Said due to flooding up to 2% of the estimated 3.7 MH of wheat area may be lost
  • Sunflower planning is 10.4% complete vs. 8.7% a week ago and vs. 15.2% a year ago
  • Estimated 2015 sunflower planting area at 1.45 MH
  • Corn harvest is 95.6% complete vs. 93.2% a week ago and vs. 98% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘14/15 corn crop at 26.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Moving averages

  • CZ 20 day at 379
  • WZ 20 day at 505
  • SMZ 20 day 320.50
  • SMZ 100 day 315.50
  • SMZ 200 day 320.10

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon. –no changes

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 48
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 1
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,252,380 open, down 30,217
  • Total soybeans 659,236 open, up 5,948
  • Total soymeal 377,861 open, down 5,760
  • Total bean oil 402,923 open, down 2,996
  • Total wheat 366,253 open, up 578
  • Total KC wheat 181,647 open, down 835

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Monday is month end
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated August Malaysian palm oil exports on Monday
  • Monday August 31st will be first notice day for September futures
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • FC Stone comes out on Tuesday about 3 pm with their US crop estimate updates
  • Informa comes out next week with their US crop estimate updates , Informa comes out at 1030 am CST
  • USDA September crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday Sept 11th at 11 am CST
  • FOMC two day policy meeting September 16-17
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE