News From The Grain Floor 08/27/15

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for October shipment

USDA announced 130,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX up 13 ¼ at 878 ¼
  • CZ up 1 ½ at 374 ¾
  • WZ down ¾ at 493 ½
  • KC WZ up 1 ¼ at 490 ½
  • MWZ unchanged at 514
  • SMZ up 2.90 at 316.80
  • BOZ up 56 at 2700

Overnight volume

  • SX 24,483
  • CZ 15,173
  • WZ 7,957
  • KC WZ 2,528
  • MWZ 407
  • SMZ 7,383
  • BOZ 12,103

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

1,417

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

1,344

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

588

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

123

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

100

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

5

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

11-Aug

18-Aug

to COT

19-Aug

20-Aug

21-Aug

24-Aug

25-Aug

26-Aug

Estimate

Corn

46693

15347

-31346

4000

4000

-10000

10000

-7000

-6000

10347

Wheat

-46675

-37562

9113

1000

6000

-4000

4000

-6000

-4000

-40562

Soybeans

44117

247

-43870

-9000

10000

-10000

-15000

4000

-9000

-28753

Soymeal

59428

42705

-16723

-2000

6000

-3000

3000

2000

-3000

45705

Soyoil

-9949

-23221

-13272

-5000

0

-6000

-6000

5000

-6000

-41221

News

Euro 1.1242 down .0111

Nikkei closed up 1.08%

Hang Seng closed up 3.6%

Shanghai Index closed up 5.3%, first rise in six sessions , biggest one day percentage rise since July 9th.

  • Shanghai index had dropped 23% over the past five sessions

Annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hole WY starts today , ends Saturday.

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -6K to 271K , expecting 274K

US second quarter GDP up 3.7% , expecting up 3.2% and vs. 2.3% a month ago

China grain market closes = beans down 26, corn down 5, meal up 3, palm oil down 44, and bean oil down 14

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 60 after 6 days of losses

Talk Morocco is buying US soymeal

Talk Brazil has bought a few US HRW cargoes over the past 10 days

Chinese crushers are showing little interest in buying soybeans

CIF markets stronger this morning

Hotter Drier weather in US crop growing areas starting on Sunday could hurt some late planted soybean crops

Argentina farmers five day crop sales strike continues. Started Monday , ends Friday.  The strike is not expected to impact Argentine grain supply , as ports have enough stock to keep shipments moving this week.

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat –  ‘15/16 529,100 ‘16/17 500 (expecting 225 -400,000 tons)
  • Corn –  ‘14/15 -131,700 ‘15/16 986.600 (expecting 500 -900,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘14/15 -131,600 ‘15/16 1,457,400 (expecting 600,000 -1.05 million tons)
  • Meal – ‘14/15 56,100 ‘15/16 93,800 (expecting 50- 275,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘14/15 17,100 ‘15/16 18,000 (expecting 0-30,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 529,100 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up 68 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Nigeria (95,500 MT), Japan (83,300 MT), South Korea (75,100 MT), the Philippines (60,000 MT), Panama (42,700 MT, including 1,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Italy (40,600 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Chile (39,500 MT). Decreases were reported for Indonesia (24,400 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), Mexico (2,700 MT), and Taiwan (1,600 MT). Exports of 357,200 MT were down 41 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior-4 week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (53,900 MT), Chile (52,500 MT), the Philippines (52,000 MT), Taiwan (48,200 MT), Japan (35,600 MT), Italy (32,400 MT), and the Dominican Republic (28,300 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales reductions of 131,800 MT for delivery in 2014/2015–a marketing-year low–were down noticeably from previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (58,700 MT), Mexico (47,000 MT), Panama (24,200 MT, switched from Colombia), Taiwan (6,600 MT), and Peru (3,300 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (246,400 MT), Colombia (24,100 MT), Canada (1,600 MT), Venezuela (1,200 MT), and Costa Rica (1,200 MT). Net sales of 986,600 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Mexico (387,600 MT), unknown destinations (343,800 MT), Japan (89,000 MT), Colombia (64,900 MT), and Taiwan (47,000 MT). Exports of 820,600 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (269,500 MT), Mexico (200,000 MT), Venezuela (79,800 MT), Colombia (71,000 MT), South Korea (63,100 MT), Canada (45,800 MT), and Costa Rica (26,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales reductions of 131,600 MT for 2014/2015 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Netherlands (65,600 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,400 MT), Indonesia (22,000 MT, including 24,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 11,700 MT), Taiwan (8,800 MT), Vietnam (4,600 MT), and Japan (2,300 MT). Decreases were reported for China (120,000 MT), unknown destinations (94,700 MT), Canada (19,800 MT), and Bangladesh (1,600 MT). Net sales of 1,457,400 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for China (887,500 MT), unknown destinations (399,500 MT), Turkey (60,000 MT), and Mexico (51,800 MT). Exports of 231,400 MT were down 42 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Netherlands (65,600 MT), Bangladesh (53,400 MT), Indonesia (34,300 MT), and Japan (30,200 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 56,100 MT for 2014/2015 were down 11 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (45,000 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from Canada), Thailand (45,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (13,300 MT), the Philippines (4,500 MT), and Sri Lanka (2,700 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (45,000 MT), Canada (9,400 MT), and Colombia (900 MT). Net sales of 93,800 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for the Philippines (40,000 MT), Ecuador (33,000 MT), Nicaragua (7,700 MT), and Mexico (7,200 MT). Exports of 113,600 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (34,900 MT), Venezuela (15,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (14,400 MT), Morocco (11,000 MT), and Colombia (10,100 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 17,100 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Guatemala (12,200 MT), Mexico (4,200 MT), Canada (300 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT). Net sales of 18,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Morocco. Exports of 4,600 MT were down 89 percent from the previous week and 73 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (4,000 MT), Canada (500 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT).

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon. –no changes

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 48
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 1
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST , expecting +60 BCF
  • Tomorrow is position day for September futures, traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated August Malaysian palm oil exports on Monday
  • Monday August 31st will be first notice day for September futures
  • FOMC two day policy meeting September 16-17
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE