News From The Grain Floor 08/13/15

Egypt GASC in for wheat for September shipment

Weather Highlights

Dry and warm weather should take place until early next week when cool conditions return. Near normal rainfall should reach at least the northern half of the belt next week before a warmer pattern begins again at the end of next week. Some see a potential comparison between 2010 and 2015 because both years were wet early in the growing season. However, 2010 was much warmer than this year in July. For reference, the USDA pegged the 2010 yield in August at  165.00 (vs 163.50 in July report)…the yield that year ended up at 152.80.   See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 7 1/2 at 917 1/2
  • CZ up 2 1/2 at 370 1/2
  • WU up 3 3/4 at 496
  • KC WU up 5 1/4 at 480 1/2
  • MWU up 5 1/2 at 517 1/2
  • SMZ up 3.90 at 315.70
  • BOZ down 14 at 29.28

Overnight volume

  • SX 27,008
  • CZ 17,389
  • WU 4,364
  • KC WU 332
  • MWU 287
  • SMZ 8,646
  • BOZ 8,508

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 10,531
  • Wheat 660
  • Beans 13,242
  • Meal 2,499
  • Bean oil 2

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

1,140

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

771

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

561

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

429

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

393

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

183

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

160

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

106

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

51

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

550

1

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

28-Jul

4-Aug

to COT

5-Aug

6-Aug

7-Aug

10-Aug

11-Aug

12-Aug

Estimate

Corn

179246

104484

-74762

7000

-6000

7000

30000

-17000

-60000

65484

Wheat

-30306

-46344

-16038

5000

5000

2000

7000

-8000

-18000

-35344

Soybeans

37638

25358

-12280

6000

-7000

9000

15000

-8000

-40000

40358

Soymeal

64166

64588

422

4000

-4000

5000

7000

-5000

-15000

71588

Soyoil

-1469

-11493

-10024

-2000

0

4000

3000

-3000

-10000

-9493

Supply and Demand

US CORN S&D

USDA

USDA

USDA (July)

USDA (Aug)

SEP/AUG

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2015/16

Planted Acres

95.4

90.6

88.9

88.9

Harvested Acres

87.5

83.1

81.1

81.1

% Harvested

91.7

91.7

91.2

91.2

 

 

 

 

 

Yield

158.1

171

166.8

168.8

 

 

 

 

 

Carry In

821

1232

1779

1772

Production

13829

14216

13530

13686

Imports

36

30

25

30

Total Supply

14686

15477

15334

15488

 

 

 

 

 

Feed and Residual

5030

5300

5275

5300

FSI

6503

6555

6585

6625

     Ethanol

5134

5200

5225

5250

Exports

1920

1850

1875

1850

Total Use

13454

13705

13735

13775

 

 

 

 

 

Carry out

1232

1772

1599

1713

Stock to Use Ratio

9.16

12.93

11.64

12.44

US SOYBEANS S&D

USDA

USDA

USDA (July)

USDA (Aug)

SEP/AUG

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2015/16

Planted Acres

76.8

83.7

85.1

84.3

Harvested Acres

76.3

83.1

84.4

83.5

% Harvested

99.3

99.3

99.2

99.1

 

 

 

 

 

Yield

44

47.8

46

46.9

 

 

 

 

 

Carry In

141

92

255

240

Production

3358

3969

3885

3916

Imports

72

30

30

30

Total Supply

3570

4091

4170

4186

 

 

 

 

 

Crush

1734

1845

1840

1860

Exports

1638

1825

1775

1725

Seed

97

98

92

92

Residual

9

83

38

40

Total Use

3478

3851

3744

3717

 

 

 

 

 

Carry out

92

240

425

470

Stock to Use Ratio

2.65

6.23

11.35

12.64

US WHEAT S&D

USDA

USDA

USDA (July)

USDA (Aug)

JUNE/MAY

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2015/16

Planted Acres

56.2

56.8

56.1

56.1

Harvested Acres

45.3

46.4

48.5

48.5

% Harvested

80.6

81.7

86.5

86.5

 

 

 

 

 

Yield

47.1

43.7

44.3

44.1

 

 

 

 

 

Carry In

718

590

753

753

Production

2135

2026

2148

2136

Imports

169

144

130

125

Total Supply

3022

2760

3031

3014

 

 

 

 

 

Food

955

958

967

967

Seed

77

81

72

72

Feed and Residual

223

115

200

200

Exports

1176

854

950

925

Total Use

2431

2008

2189

2164

 

 

 

 

 

Carry out

590

753

842

850

Stock to Use Ratio

24.27

37.50

38.47

39.28

News

Egypt FIHC bought 45,000 tons of bean oil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil for October shipment

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean exports at 52.3 MMT

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 soybean ending stocks at 6.27 MMT up 54% from ‘14/15

Rosario Grains Exchange said they will cut their 2015 Argentina wheat area estimate due to heavy rains. Their previous estimate was 3.5 MH

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 99.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 97.0 MMT

SovEcon estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at 59.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 57.5 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 crop 59.7 MMT

BMI Research estimated Australian ‘15/16 wheat crop at 23.7 MMT  

Pakistani importers buy 66,000 tonnes or soybeans from Brazil May 2016 shipment

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat = 421,600 14/15  (expecting 400- 600,000 tons)
  • Corn = 29,200 for 14/15 and 501,900 for 15/16 (expecting 350 -750,000 tons)
  • Beans = 96,300 for 14/15 and 660,500 for 15/16  (expecting 300,000 -1.0 million tons)
  • Meal = 57,100 for 14/15 and 277 for 15/16  (expecting 25 -175,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = -2,600 for 14/15 and 1,800 for 15/16  (expecting 5 -20,000 tons)

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for August futures is Friday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out over the weekend with their Malaysian Aug 1-15th palm oil export estimates  
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Monday Aug 17th at 11 am CST
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE