News From The Grain Floor 08/12/15

USDA August supply and demand and crop production report comes out today at 11 am CST. See attachment for recap table.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 2 ¾ at 968 ¾
  • CZ up ¾ at 388 ¼
  • WU up 3 ¼ at 510 ½
  • KC WU up 3 ¼ at 491 ¼
  • MWU up 3 ¾ at 523
  • SMZ up 2.10 at 334.20
  • BOZ down .22 at 3025

Overnight volume

  • SX 27,812
  • CZ 18,578
  • WU 12,028
  • KC WU 1,717
  • MWU 321
  • SMZ 11,449
  • BOZ 17,599

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 7,420
  • Wheat 702
  • Beans 4,059
  • Meal 293
  • Bean oil 222

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

1,034

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

486

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

146

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

500

78

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

67

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

430

39

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

510

35

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

520

11

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

530

2

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

28-Jul

4-Aug

to COT

5-Aug

6-Aug

7-Aug

10-Aug

11-Aug

Estimate

Corn

179246

104484

-74762

7000

-6000

7000

30000

-17000

125484

Wheat

-30306

-46344

-16038

5000

5000

2000

7000

-8000

-35344

Soybeans

37638

25358

-12280

6000

-7000

9000

15000

-8000

40358

Soymeal

64166

64588

422

4000

-4000

5000

7000

-5000

71588

Soyoil

-1469

-11493

-10024

-2000

0

4000

3000

-3000

-9493

News

Euro 1.1153 up .0119

Nikkei down 1.58%

Hang Seng down 2.4%

Shanghai Index down 1.1%

China grain market closes = beans down 7, corn down 9, meal down 2, palm oil up 12, and bean oil up 8

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 45.

Pakistan seeks 66,000 tons of US or Brazilian soybeans for Nov –Dec shipment

Cordonnier estimated US 2015 corn crop at 13.25 BB, unchanged from his previous estimate.

Cordonnier estimated US 2015 corn yield at 164.5 BPA, unchanged from his previous estimate.

Cordonnier estimated US 2015 bean crop at 3.58 BB, unchanged from his previous estimate.

Cordonnier estimated US 2015 bean yield at 43.5 BPA, unchanged from his previous estimate.

Cordonnier expects ‘15/16 Brazilian soybean area to expand by 3-5% from ‘14/15 bean area

AgRural said Brazilian farmers have sold 25% of their ‘15/16 bean crop vs. 7% a year ago

AgRural said Brazilian farmers have sold 82% of their ‘14/15 bean crop   

EU Commission expects EU 2015 rapeseed crop to fall 14.7% from last year’s record crop of 20.73 MMT

Oil World estimated EU ‘15/16 palm oil imports at 7.4 MMT vs. ‘14/15 imports of 6.9 MMT

Oil World estimated EU ‘15/16 soymeal imports at 21.7 MMT vs. ‘14/15 imports of 20.8 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s 2015 barley crop at 8.4 MMT vs. 9.0 MMT in 2014

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated Kazakhstan’s ‘15/16 grain exports at 8.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.0 MMT and vs. 6.4 MMT in ‘14/15  

Deliveries

  • Bean oil – 117 with the date at 8/07/15

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 48
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 1
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,391,240 open , down 9,120
  • Total soybeans 648,642 open, down 436
  • Total soymeal 391,835 open, up 1,518
  • Total bean oil 379,435 open, down 2,630
  • Total wheat 423,425 open, down 2,277
  • Total KC wheat 198,364 open, down 1,605

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a draw of 2.0 MB

o   Gas a draw of 675,000 barrels

o   Distillates a build of 1.05 MB

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out today at 11 am CST. See below for estimates
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for August futures is Friday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out over the weekend with their Malaysian Aug 1-15th palm oil export estimates  
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Monday Aug 17th at 11 am CST
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October

USDA’s August supply and demand and production report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST.  

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.327 BB, range of estimates are 13.009 -13.763 BB. USDA July estimate was 13.530 BB and ‘14/15 US final corn production was 14.216 BB
  • Corn yield (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 164.5 BPA, range of estimates are 160.4-167.5 BB. USDA July estimate was 166.8 BPA and ‘14/15 US final corn yield was 171.0 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 81.017 MA, range of estimates are 80.200-82.177 MA. USDA July estimate was 81.101 MA and ‘14/15 US final corn harvested acres were 83.136 MA  
  • Soybean production (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.724 BB, range of estimates are 3.570-3.806 BB. USDA July estimate was 3.885 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean production was 3.969 BB
  • Soybean yield (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 44.7 BPA, range of estimates are 43.2-45.7 BPA. USDA July estimate was 46.0 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean yield was 47.8 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 83.271 MA, range of estimates are 82.4 -84.4 MA. USDA July estimate was 84.449 MA and ‘14/15 US final soybean harvested acres were 83.061 MA

Estimates for ‘15/16 US wheat production:

  • All wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 2.153 BB, range of estimates are 2.075 – 2.210 BB. USDA July estimate was 2.148 BB and US ‘14/15 all wheat production was 2.026 BB.
  • All winter wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.452 BB, range of estimate are 1.430 -1.468 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.456 BB and US ‘14/15 all winter wheat production was 1.378 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .867 BB, range of estimates are .852 – .880 BB. USDA July estimate was .866 BB and US ‘14/15 hard red winter wheat production was .738 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .390 BB, range of estimates are .377 -.402 BB. USDA July estimate was .393 BB and US ‘14/15 soft red winter wheat production was .455 BB.
  • White winter wheat (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .194 BB, range of estimates are .186 -.201 BB. USDA July estimate was .196 BB and US ‘14/15 white winter wheat production was .184 BB.
  • Other spring wheat (17 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .629 BB, range of estimates are .582 -.670 BB. USDA July estimate was .617 BB and US ‘14/15 other spring wheat production was .595 BB
  • Durum (17 analysts surveyed) Average estimate .080 BB, range of estimates are .075 -.090 BB. USDA July estimate was .076 BB and US ‘14/15 durum production was .053 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.774 BB, range of estimates are 1.735 -1.816 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.779 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .247 BB, range of estimates are .220- .275 BB. USDA July estimate was .255 BB.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .858 BB, range of estimates are .742 -.913 BB. USDA July estimate was .842 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.424 BB, range of estimates are 1.178 -1.634 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.599 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .301 BB, range of estimates are .210 -.402 BB. USDA July estimate was .425 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 211.21 MMT, range of estimates are 199.55 -213.02 MMT. USDA July estimate was 212.06 MMT.
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 193.25 MMT, range of estimates are 188.00 -194.86 MMT. USDA July estimate was 193.95 MMT.
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 81.49 MMT, range of estimates are 80.88 -83.20 MMT. USDA July estimate was 81.68 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 218.15 MMT, range of estimates are 199.35 – 222.0 MMT . USDA July estimate was 219.81 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 187.91 MMT, range of estimates are 183.00 – 197.67 MMT . USDA July estimate was 189.95 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 89.89 MMT, range of estimates are 86.30-92.70 MMT . USDA July estimate was 91.80 MMT

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE