News From The Grain Floor 08/11/15

Weather Highlights

Recent coolness in the Midwest should end soon with warmer weather in the cards for the second half of this week. Some showers could reach areas in the northern third to half of the belt next week. Past August 20th, it is difficult to assess both temps and precipitation. Having said that, showers should be limited for the rest of the week to 0.25” to 0.75” in some areas of central and northern plains…the better chances for rain in the northern belt are for next week (August 17-19 period) with amounts potentially in the 0.50” to 1.00”. The southern areas should stay dry.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 14 ¼ at 980 ¼
  • CZ down 6 ½ at 394 ½
  • WU down 8 ¼ at 517 ¼
  • KC WU down 9 ¾ at 494 ¾
  • MWU down 7 ¾ at 526 ½
  • SMZ down 4.50 at 338.90
  • BOZ down 47 at 3036

Overnight volume

  • SX 40,432
  • CZ 34,539
  • WU 8,875
  • KC WU 1,536
  • MWU 234
  • SMZ 8,452
  • BOZ 19,570

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 8,695
  • Wheat 703
  • Beans 7,721
  • Meal 292
  • Bean oil 203

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

290

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

250

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

204

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

204

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

183

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

144

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

121

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

77

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

40

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

20

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

20

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

1

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

28-Jul

4-Aug

to COT

5-Aug

6-Aug

7-Aug

10-Aug

Estimate

Corn

179246

104484

-74762

7000

-6000

7000

30000

142484

Wheat

-30306

-46344

-16038

5000

5000

2000

7000

-27344

Soybeans

37638

25358

-12280

6000

-7000

9000

15000

48358

Soymeal

64166

64588

422

4000

-4000

5000

7000

76588

Soyoil

-1469

-11493

-10024

-2000

0

4000

3000

-6493

July WASDE yields vs August / corn and beans

Before tomorrow’s USDA WASDE, we’ll take a look at historical changes between the July and August reports for the last 10 years. In corn, the USDA never left the yield unchanged…they increased the yield 6 times and lowered it 4 times. If you take out 2012, the average change for August was 4 bushels per acre. In beans, the yield was left unchanged once in 2007…the government increased the yield twice (2014 and 2010) with 7 decreases. If you take out 2012, the average change for August was 1.2 bushels per acre.

Corn

July

August

July to Aug

2015

166.8

?

?

2014

165.3

167.4

2.1

2013

156.5

154.4

-2.1

2012

146

123.4

-22.6

2011

158.7

153

-5.7

2010

163.5

165

1.5

2009

153.4

159.4

6

2008

148.4

155

6.6

2007

150.3

152.8

2.5

2006

149

152.2

3.2

2005

145

139.2

-5.8

Beans

July

August

July to Aug

2015

46

?

 

2014

45.2

45.4

0.2

2013

44.5

42.6

-1.9

2012

40.5

36.1

-4.4

2011

43.4

41.4

-2

2010

42.9

44

1.1

2009

42.6

41.7

-0.9

2008

41.6

40.5

-1.1

2007

41.5

41.5

0

2006

40.7

39.6

-1.1

2005

39.9

38.7

-1.2

News

Euro 1.1077 up .0054

Nikkei down .42%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai Index unchanged

China grain market closes = beans up 29, corn up 11, meal up 50, palm oil up 56, and bean oil up 82

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 11.

Japan seeks 147,933 tons of food wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia for Sept-Oct shipment.

CONAB – Brazilian crop estimates came out this morning

  • ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 96.2 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 86.1 MMT
  • ‘14/15 bean exports estimated at 49.1 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 45.7 MMT
  • ‘14/15 total corn crop estimated at 84.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 81.8 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 80.1 MMT
  • ‘14/15 corn exports estimated at 26.4 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 20.9 MMT
  • ‘14/15 total grain production estimated at 208.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 206.3 MMT
  • 2015 wheat crop estimated at 7.00 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.01 MMT

Argentine June soybean crush at 4.516 MMT up 7.9% from a year ago

Argentine Jan-June soybean crush at 18.518 MMT up .9% from a year ago

Argentine June sun seed crush at 245,595 tons up 1% from a year ago

Argentine Jan-June sun seed crush at 1.477 MMT up 5.5% from a year ago

French Farm Ministry – France’s 2015 crop estimates:

  • Corn crop estimated at 13.2 MMT , first estimate made for 2015 corn crop, vs. 2014 crop of 18.3 MMT
  • Corn yield estimated at 8.3 TPH vs. 2014 yield of 10.4 TPH
  • Soft wheat crop estimated at 39.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 37.9 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 37.5 MMT
  • Barley crop estimated at 12.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.7 MMT
  • Rapeseed crop estimated at 5.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.1 MMT

Manitoba weekly crop progress report – winter wheat yields are ranging from 55-90 BPA , with good quality

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

Corn

  • Condition 70% good to excellent , unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged to down 1% from a week ago) and vs. 73% a year ago
  • Silking 96% vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 96% five year average
  • Dough 50% vs. 29% a week ago and vs. 49% five year average
  • Dented 9% vs. 9% a year ago and vs. 15% five year average

Soybeans

  • Condition 63% good to excellent , unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged to down 1% from a week ago) and vs. 70% a year ago
  • Blooming 88% vs. 81% a week ago and vs. 91% five year average
  • Setting Pods 69% vs. 54% a week ago and vs. 66% five year average

Spring wheat

  • Condition 69% good to excellent, down 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) and vs. 70% a year ago
  • Harvested 28% vs. 8% a week ago and vs. 20% five year average

Winter wheat

  • Harvested 97% vs. 93% a week ago and vs. 90% five year average

Rice

  • Condition 69% good to excellent, down 1% from a week ago and vs. 73% a year ago
  • Headed 81% vs. 63% a week ago and vs. 71% five year average

Cotton

  • Condition 56% good to excellent, down 1% from a week ago and vs. 52% a year ago
  • Squaring 96% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 97% five year average
  • Bolls Opening 7% vs. 6% a year ago and vs. 8% five year average
  • Setting Bolls 68% vs. 57% a week ago  and vs. 79% five year average

Deliveries

  • Bean oil – 136 with the date at 8/06/15

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 48

o   36 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Argo IL

  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 1
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,400,936 open, up 10,792
  • Total soybeans 648,915 open, up 658
  • Total soymeal 390,416 open, up 4,174
  • Total bean oil 382,165 open, down 1,006
  • Total wheat 425,727 open, up 2,650
  • Total KC wheat 200,091 open, down 728

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST. See below for estimates
  • Last trading day for August futures is Friday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out over the weekend with their Malaysian Aug 1-15th palm oil export estimates  
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Monday Aug 17th at 11 am CST
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October

USDA’s August supply and demand and production report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST.  

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.327 BB, range of estimates are 13.009 -13.763 BB. USDA July estimate was 13.530 BB and ‘14/15 US final corn production was 14.216 BB
  • Corn yield (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 164.5 BPA, range of estimates are 160.4-167.5 BB. USDA July estimate was 166.8 BPA and ‘14/15 US final corn yield was 171.0 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 81.017 MA, range of estimates are 80.200-82.177 MA. USDA July estimate was 81.101 MA and ‘14/15 US final corn harvested acres were 83.136 MA  
  • Soybean production (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.724 BB, range of estimates are 3.570-3.806 BB. USDA July estimate was 3.885 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean production was 3.969 BB
  • Soybean yield (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 44.7 BPA, range of estimates are 43.2-45.7 BPA. USDA July estimate was 46.0 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean yield was 47.8 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 83.271 MA, range of estimates are 82.4 -84.4 MA. USDA July estimate was 84.449 MA and ‘14/15 US final soybean harvested acres were 83.061 MA

Estimates for ‘15/16 US wheat production:

  • All wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 2.153 BB, range of estimates are 2.075 – 2.210 BB. USDA July estimate was 2.148 BB and US ‘14/15 all wheat production was 2.026 BB.
  • All winter wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.452 BB, range of estimate are 1.430 -1.468 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.456 BB and US ‘14/15 all winter wheat production was 1.378 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .867 BB, range of estimates are .852 – .880 BB. USDA July estimate was .866 BB and US ‘14/15 hard red winter wheat production was .738 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .390 BB, range of estimates are .377 -.402 BB. USDA July estimate was .393 BB and US ‘14/15 soft red winter wheat production was .455 BB.
  • White winter wheat (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .194 BB, range of estimates are .186 -.201 BB. USDA July estimate was .196 BB and US ‘14/15 white winter wheat production was .184 BB.
  • Other spring wheat (17 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .629 BB, range of estimates are .582 -.670 BB. USDA July estimate was .617 BB and US ‘14/15 other spring wheat production was .595 BB
  • Durum (17 analysts surveyed) Average estimate .080 BB, range of estimates are .075 -.090 BB. USDA July estimate was .076 BB and US ‘14/15 durum production was .053 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.774 BB, range of estimates are 1.735 -1.816 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.779 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .247 BB, range of estimates are .220- .275 BB. USDA July estimate was .255 BB.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .858 BB, range of estimates are .742 -.913 BB. USDA July estimate was .842 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.424 BB, range of estimates are 1.178 -1.634 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.599 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .301 BB, range of estimates are .210 -.402 BB. USDA July estimate was .425 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 211.21 MMT, range of estimates are 199.55 -213.02 MMT. USDA July estimate was 212.06 MMT.
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 193.25 MMT, range of estimates are 188.00 -194.86 MMT. USDA July estimate was 193.95 MMT.
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 81.49 MMT, range of estimates are 80.88 -83.20 MMT. USDA July estimate was 81.68 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 218.15 MMT, range of estimates are 199.35 – 222.0 MMT . USDA July estimate was 219.81 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 187.91 MMT, range of estimates are 183.00 – 197.67 MMT . USDA July estimate was 189.95 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 89.89 MMT, range of estimates are 86.30-92.70 MMT . USDA July estimate was 91.80 MMT

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE