News From The Grain Floor 08/10/15

Weather Highlight

Good coverage of rain in the corn belt last 5 days but that will be followed by below- to much below-normal rainfall in the next 7-10 days. Most of the central U.S. will be cool into mid week before a warmer pattern begins from west to east starting Thursday. Showers may take place in the southeast third of the belt today but that should be limited. Overall, most of the biggest production areas in the corn belt will receive lower than normal precipitation in the August 10-18 period.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 7 ½ at 970 ¾
  • CZ up 4 ¼ at 388
  • WU up ¾ at 511 ¼
  • KC WU up a ½ at 493 ½
  • MWU up a ½ at 525
  • SMZ up 2.80 at 335.50
  • BOZ down 1 at 3045

Overnight volume

  • SX 22,358
  • CZ 28,403
  • WU 5,585
  • KC WU 402
  • MWU 119
  • SMZ 5,643
  • BOZ 9,820

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,163
  • Wheat 533
  • Beans 6,822
  • Meal 571
  • Bean oil 7

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

290

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

250

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

204

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

204

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

183

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

144

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

121

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

77

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

40

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

20

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

20

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

1

Funds/COT Commentary

The latest COT showed reductions in the net long in beans and especially corn; wheat and soyoil increased their net short positions while soymeal was unchanged. The biggest change came from corn where the fund net long dropped by nearly 75k lots…this net drop came mainly from new shorts (59k contracts). In wheat, the increase in the net short came from new shorts as well (16k contracts). The soybeans decrease in the net long was a mix of less longs and new shorts…funds were long only 25k lots as of last Tuesday. The meal position is still high with no real changes week to week. Soyoil has now about 10k net shorts.

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

28-Jul

28-Jul

to COT

5-Aug

6-Aug

7-Aug

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

179246

104484

-74762

7000

-6000

7000

112484

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-30306

-46344

-16038

5000

5000

2000

-34344

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

37638

25358

-12280

6000

-7000

9000

33358

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

64166

64588

422

4000

-4000

5000

69588

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

-1469

-11493

-10024

-2000

0

4000

-9493

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News

Euro 1.0957 down .0019

Nikkei up .41%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai Index up 4.9%

China July trade balance data

  • July exports -8.3% , expecting -2.2%
  • July imports -8.1%, expecting -7.4%
  • July trade surplus $43.03 B, expecting surplus $52.9 B
  • July CPI +1.6% as expected

China grain market closes = beans up 37, corn up 10, meal up 44, palm oil up 10, and bean oil up 62.

China customs data showed China imported 9.50 MMT of beans in July (record) up 17.4% from a month ago and up 27% from a year ago

China customs data showed China imported 44.66 MMT of beans between Jan-July up 7.1% from a year ago

China customs data showed China imported 880,000 tons of edible oils in July up 27.5% from a month ago and up 35% from a year ago

China customs data showed China imported 3.62 MMT of edible oils between Jan-July down 15% from a year ago

CNGOIC estimated China’s August -Sept soybean imports at 13.0 MMT vs. 11.06 MMT in Aug-Sept 2014.

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘15/16 bean imports at 77.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 77.5 MMT

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 13.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board – Malaysia’s July palm oil data report

  • July palm oil stocks at 2,265,494 tons , expecting 2.19 MMT
  • July palm oil exports at 1,602,110 tons, expecting 1.58 MMT
  • July palm oil output at 1,815,631tons, expecting 1.78 MMT

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-10th palm oil exports at 486,451 tons up 57.5% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-10th palm oil exports at 498,993 tons up 57.6% from a month ago  

Saudi Arabia bought 505,000 tons of EU, North American, South American, Australian , and or Canadian hard wheat for Sept-Nov shipment.

South Korea NOFI bought 55,000 tons of South American soymeal for December shipment

South Korea KFA bought 52,000 tons of South American soymeal for Jan shipment

Israel seeks 110,000 tons of optional origin corn for Oct –Dec shipment

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of hard milling wheat, optional origin for Nov-Dec shipment

South Korea seeks 1,000 tons of beans for December shipment

Russia Ag Min said as of August 7th Russia harvested 48.4 MMT of grain , 33% of total area with an average yield of 3.10 TPH . A year ago Russia harvested 55.8 MMT of grain with an average yield of 3.30 TPH.

Concerns about dryness in Europe

Deliveries

  • Bean oil – 21 with the date at 8/05/15

 Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 84
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 1
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,389,165 open, up 7,035
  • Total soybeans 648,445 open, down 1,744
  • Total soymeal 386,411 open, up 4,807
  • Total bean oil 383,301 open, up 806
  • Total wheat 423,146 open, down 995
  • Total KC wheat 201,185 open, down 1,335-

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn conditions expecting steady to down 1% from a week ago

o   Bean conditions expecting steady to down 1% from a week ago

o   Spring wheat expecting steady from a week ago  

  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out Wednesday at 11 am CST. See below for estimates
  • Last trading day for August futures is Friday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Monday Aug 17th at 11 am CST
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October

USDA’s August supply and demand and production report comes out Wednesday at 11 am CST.  

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.327 BB, range of estimates are 13.009 -13.763 BB. USDA July estimate was 13.530 BB and ‘14/15 US final corn production was 14.216 BB
  • Corn yield (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 164.5 BPA, range of estimates are 160.4-167.5 BB. USDA July estimate was 166.8 BPA and ‘14/15 US final corn yield was 171.0 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 81.017 MA, range of estimates are 80.200-82.177 MA. USDA July estimate was 81.101 MA and ‘14/15 US final corn harvested acres were 83.136 MA  
  • Soybean production (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.724 BB, range of estimates are 3.570-3.806 BB. USDA July estimate was 3.885 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean production was 3.969 BB
  • Soybean yield (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 44.7 BPA, range of estimates are 43.2-45.7 BPA. USDA July estimate was 46.0 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean yield was 47.8 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 83.271 MA, range of estimates are 82.4 -84.4 MA. USDA July estimate was 84.449 MA and ‘14/15 US final soybean harvested acres were 83.061 MA

Estimates for ‘15/16 US wheat production:

  • All wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 2.153 BB, range of estimates are 2.075 – 2.210 BB. USDA July estimate was 2.148 BB and US ‘14/15 all wheat production was 2.026 BB.
  • All winter wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.452 BB, range of estimate are 1.430 -1.468 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.456 BB and US ‘14/15 all winter wheat production was 1.378 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .867 BB, range of estimates are .852 – .880 BB. USDA July estimate was .866 BB and US ‘14/15 hard red winter wheat production was .738 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .390 BB, range of estimates are .377 -.402 BB. USDA July estimate was .393 BB and US ‘14/15 soft red winter wheat production was .455 BB.
  • White winter wheat (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .194 BB, range of estimates are .186 -.201 BB. USDA July estimate was .196 BB and US ‘14/15 white winter wheat production was .184 BB.
  • Other spring wheat (17 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .629 BB, range of estimates are .582 -.670 BB. USDA July estimate was .617 BB and US ‘14/15 other spring wheat production was .595 BB
  • Durum (17 analysts surveyed) Average estimate .080 BB, range of estimates are .075 -.090 BB. USDA July estimate was .076 BB and US ‘14/15 durum production was .053 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.774 BB, range of estimates are 1.735 -1.816 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.779 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .247 BB, range of estimates are .220- .275 BB. USDA July estimate was .255 BB.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .858 BB, range of estimates are .742 -.913 BB. USDA July estimate was .842 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.424 BB, range of estimates are 1.178 -1.634 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.599 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .301 BB, range of estimates are .210 -.402 BB. USDA July estimate was .425 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 211.21 MMT, range of estimates are 199.55 -213.02 MMT. USDA July estimate was 212.06 MMT.
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 193.25 MMT, range of estimates are 188.00 -194.86 MMT. USDA July estimate was 193.95 MMT.
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 81.49 MMT, range of estimates are 80.88 -83.20 MMT. USDA July estimate was 81.68 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 218.15 MMT, range of estimates are 199.35 – 222.0 MMT . USDA July estimate was 219.81 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 187.91 MMT, range of estimates are 183.00 – 197.67 MMT . USDA July estimate was 189.95 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 89.89 MMT, range of estimates are 86.30-92.70 MMT . USDA July estimate was 91.80 MMT

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE