News From The Grain Floor 08/07/15

USDA announced 132,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 delivery

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 ¾ at 946
  • CZ unchanged at 380 ½
  • WU up 2 at 509
  • KC WU down a ¼ at 489 ¼
  • MWU up 1 ¾ at 520 ¼
  • SMZ up 2.20 at 328.50
  • BOZ down 10 at 2997

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,885
  • CZ 14,497
  • WU 6,782
  • KC WU 734
  • MWU 657
  • SMZ 5,358
  • BOZ 7,160

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,774
  • Wheat 716
  • Beans 1,099
  • Meal 102
  • Bean oil 168

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

21-Jul

28-Jul

to COT

29-Jul

30-Jul

31-Jul

3-Aug

4-Aug

5-Aug

6-Aug

Estimate

Corn

207830

179246

-28584

-12000

4000

-4000

-7000

6000

7000

-6000

167246

Wheat

-18171

-30306

-12135

-8000

2000

0

0

-4000

5000

5000

-30306

Soybeans

80335

37638

-42697

0

4000

-5000

-1000

5000

6000

-7000

39638

Soymeal

69527

64166

-5361

2000

3000

-2000

-2000

3000

4000

-4000

68166

Soyoil

16176

-1469

-17645

-5000

2000

-1000

0

-500

-2000

0

-7969

News

Euro 1.0877 down .0047

Nikkei up .29%

Hang Seng up .7%

Shanghai Index up 2.3%

US July unemployment came out this morning

  • July nonfarm payrolls +215K , expecting +225K  
  • July unemployment rate at 5.3% as expected

China grain market closes = beans up 6, corn unchanged, meal down 10, palm oil down 36, and bean oil down 2.

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 3

South Korea KFA bought 65,000 tons of optional origin corn for March shipment

South Korea KFA bought 55,000 tons of South American soymeal for Jan shipment

South Korea CJ canceled tender for 27,100 tons of US wheat for November shipment due to high prices

South Korea Daehan canceled tender for 23,900 tons of US wheat for November shipment due to high prices

Bangladesh rejects a cargo of French wheat because the grain did not match tender specifications

Linn Group estimated US 2015 corn crop at 13.009 BB

Linn Group estimated US 2015 corn yield at 160.4 BPA

Linn Group estimated US 2015 bean crop at 3.633 BB

Linn Group estimated US 2015 bean yield at 43.9 BPA

CWG estimated 2015 US bean yield at 46.7 BPA

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina crop report

  • Wheat planting is 100% complete
  • Wheat planting area estimated at 3.7 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn harvest is 85% complete
  • 2015 corn crop estimated at 26.0 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate

FranceAgriMer – weekly French crop report

  • Soft wheat harvest is 86% complete vs. 71% a week ago
  • Corn crop rated 58% good to excellent vs. 59% a week ago and vs. 85% a year ago

Heat and dryness concerns in Ukraine

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s ’15/16 corn crop at 24.0 MMT vs. ‘14/15 corn crop of 25.9 MMT

India to impose an import duty of 10% on wheat until March 31, 2016.

Deliveries

  • Bean oil – 177 with the date current
  • Ethanol – 22 with the date at 7/30/15

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 84
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024

o   39 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 1
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,l382,170 open, up 4,321
  • Total soybeans 650,058 open, up 4,591
  • Total soymeal 381,724 open, down 2,697
  • Total bean oil 382,528 open, down 360
  • Total wheat 424,046 open, down 1,194
  • Total KC wheat 201,073 open, down 1,346

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Primary elections in Argentina on Sunday
  • Malaysia Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their July palm oil data report . Based on a Reuters survey expecting

o   July palm oil stocks average estimate 2.19 MMT up 1.6% from June

o   July palm oil exports average estimate 1.58 MMT down 6.9% from June

o   July palm oil output average estimate 1.78 MMT up 1% from June

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday with their Malaysian palm oil Aug 1-10th export estimates
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday with their Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out Wednesday at 11 am CST. Will send estimates for the report this morning
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE