News From The Grain Floor 08/06/15

Weather Highlights

First looking at the maps, it should be warmer than normal for most of the belt expect in the east for the august 6-14 period with lower precipitation for most of the belt. Yesterday we had rainfall in the northern delta with some parts of Illinois and Indiana receiving some showers as well. Temps yesterday were below normal. As of last weekend, 70% of corn and 63% of beans are rated good to excellent. Short term, temps are cooler before warming up begins mod next week. Above normal heat will affect the western or southwestern third of the corn belt for at least 5 days. Some rains will take place in the next few days before a drier pattern follows for at least 7 to 10 days.  See maps below.

USDA announced China bought 132,000 tons of US beans for ‘15/16 delivery

Overnight closes

  • SX down 4 at 949 ¼
  • CZ up a ½ at 383 ¾
  • WU up 6 ¼ at 508 ¼
  • KC WU up 3 at 492 ½
  • MWU up 5 at 520 ½
  • SMZ down 1.30 at 331.50
  • BOZ down 5 at 2999

Overnight volume

  • SX 22,006
  • CZ 23,029
  • WU 14,320
  • KC WU 1,814
  • MWU 496
  • SMZ 6,825
  • BOZ 8,285

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 7,689
  • Wheat 717
  • Beans 1,368
  • Meal 35
  • Bean oil 26

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

1,098

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

1,098

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

418

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

343

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

266

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

192

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

173

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

150

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

126

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

67

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

18

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

15

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

21-Jul

28-Jul

to COT

29-Jul

30-Jul

31-Jul

3-Aug

4-Aug

5-Aug

Estimate

Corn

207830

179246

-28584

-12000

4000

-4000

-7000

6000

7000

173246

Wheat

-18171

-30306

-12135

-8000

2000

0

0

-4000

5000

-35306

Soybeans

80335

37638

-42697

0

4000

-5000

-1000

5000

6000

46638

Soymeal

69527

64166

-5361

2000

3000

-2000

-2000

3000

4000

72166

Soyoil

16176

-1469

-17645

-5000

2000

-1000

0

-500

-2000

-7969

News

Euro at 1.0884 down .0016

Nikkei up .24%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index down .9%

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +3,000 to 270,000, expecting 272,000.

China grain market closes = beans up 49, corn up 3, meal up 5, palm oil down 60, and bean oil down 28

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 9.

  • Dorab Mistry said palm oil price seen declining to low of 1,900 ringgit a ton by the end of September
  • Dorab Mistry said palm oil price to recover to between 2,100-2,300 ringgit by the end of November

Dorab Mistry said global biodiesel demand fell by at least 1.5 MMT in ‘14/15 and expects it to recover by 1.5 MMT in ‘15/16

Talk/reports China has bought 12-15 cargoes of soybeans this week. Hearing only one cargo from the US and the rest were from Brazil.

Another report said China bought 2 cargoes of US beans for Sept shipment yesterday

The Philippines bought 46,000 tons of US soy meal for Dec-Jan shipment

Japan bought 168,353 tons of wheat from US, Canada, and Australia for Sept-Oct shipment

Egypt bought 120,000 tons of Russian wheat yesterday for Sept shipment.

Saudi Arabia seeks 495,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Sept-Nov shipment  

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for Dec-Jan shipment

Allendale estimated Illinois’ corn yield at 168.0 BPA

FC Stone estimated Illinois’ corn yield at 174.0 BPA

Informa estimated Illinois’ corn yield at 180.0 BPA

Lanworth estimated Illinois’ corn yield at 171.0 BPA

Informa estimated EU ‘15/16 corn production at 64.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 65.8 MMT

Informa estimated Ukraine ‘15/16 corn crop at 26.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 26.0 MMT

Informa estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at 57.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 57.0 MMT

Informa estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 97.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 97.0 MMT  

USDA said US DDGS June exports were 1.307 MMT (record) vs. May exports of 1.172 MMT

  • China imported a record 967,529 tons in June vs. 864,777 tons imported in May

USDA said US ethanol exports in June was 228 million liters, lowest in nine months.

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat – ‘15/16 838,500 ‘16/17 2,300 (expecting 400 -600,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘14/15 -2,300 ‘15/16 277,000 (expecting 550 -950,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘14/15 -447,300 ‘15/16 1,024,200 (expecting 350 -900,000 tons)
  • Meal – ‘14/15 41,600 ‘15/16 18,300 (expecting 50 -225,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘14/15 4,300 ‘15/16 6,000 (expecting 5 -40,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat –Net sales of 838,500 metric tons–a marketing-year high–for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up 20 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (394,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (81,000 MT), Japan (71,000 MT, including 68,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (61,000 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Yemen (47,300 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from Nigeria). Decreases were reported for the French West Indies (8,000 MT) and Nigeria (2,200 MT). Net sales of 2,300 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Italy. Exports of 314,500 MT were down 14 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior-4 week average. The primary destinations were Japan (70,100 MT), Mexico (51,600 MT), Guatemala (48,300 MT), Yemen (47,300 MT), Italy (30,400 MT), Colombia (15,200 MT), and Venezuela (15,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales reductions of 2,700 MT–a marketing-year low–for delivery in 2014/2015 were down noticeably from previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (129,300 MT), South Korea (72,700 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,600 MT), Venezuela (58,000 MT), Japan (48,000 MT, including 73,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 59,400 MT), and Panama (15,100 MT, including 14,400 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (228,200 MT) and Taiwan (126,700 MT). Net sales of 277,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (131,300 MT), Mexico (105,300 MT), and Colombia (30,500 MT). Exports of 1,005,000 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (319,100 MT), Mexico (312,700 MT), South Korea (119,600 MT), Colombia (76,000 MT), Costa Rica (44,700 MT), and Guatemala (27,700 MT)
  • Beans – Net sales reductions of 447,300 MT–a marketing-year low–for 2014/2015 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (59,800 MT, including 43,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,000 MT), Nigeria (15,000 MT), Colombia (8,100 MT, including 6,000 MT switched from Panama and decreases of 300 MT), and Taiwan (7,100 MT). Decreases were reported for China (500,000 MT, including 300,000 MT switched to 2015/2016), unknown destinations (43,300 MT), and Panama (6,000 MT). Net sales of 1,024,200 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (489,500 MT), China (426,000 MT), Taiwan (79,300 MT), and Mexico (20,700 MT). Exports of 210,700 MT were up 64 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (80,400 MT), Mexico (65,100 MT), Colombia (23,300 MT),Costa Rica (13,300 MT), and Indonesia (12,300 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 41,600 MT for 2014/2015 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (11,400 MT), Panama (9,400 MT, including 8,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (5,800 MT), the Philippines (4,500 MT), Japan (4,400 MT, including 3,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Sri Lanka (1,700 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (2,400 MT) and New Guinea (100 MT). Net sales of 18,300 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for the Dominican Republic (6,000 MT), Trinidad (3,000 MT), and unknown destinations (2,800 MT). Exports of 106,800 MT were down 45 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (29,100 MT), Colombia (15,200 MT), Guatemala (13,400 MT), Canada (11,400 MT), the Dominican Republic (8,700 MT), and Panama (8,400 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 4,200 MT for 2014/2015 were down 94 percent from the previous week and 83 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (2,600 MT), El Salvador (1,200 MT), and Canada (200 MT). Net sales of 6,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 2,600 MT were down 55 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (2,300 MT) and Canada (200 MT).

Deliveries

  • Bean oil – 294 with the date at 8/04/15
  • Ethanol – 51 with the date at 7/29/15

o   House ADM issued 51.

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 84

o   51 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of ADM Argo IL

  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 1
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,378,082 open, up 10,046
  • Total soybeans 645,533 open, up 2,960
  • Total soymeal 384,446 open, up 3,391
  • Total bean oil 382,908 open, up 4,281
  • Total wheat 425,300 open, up 5,320
  • Total KC wheat 202,423 open, up 205

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST , expecting +43 BCF.
  • US July unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Primary elections in Argentina on Sunday
  • Malaysia Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their July palm oil data report . Based on a Reuters survey expecting

o   July palm oil stocks average estimate 2.19 MMT up 1.6% from June

o   July palm oil exports average estimate 1.58 MMT down 6.9% from June

o   July palm oil output average estimate 1.78 MMT up 1% from June

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday with their Malaysian palm oil Aug 1-10th export estimates
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out Wednesday at 11 am CST
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, report was supposed to come out on August 3rd , but this report was delayed. The report will not come out until October

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE