News From The Grain Floor 07/30/15

USDA announced 140,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 delivery.

Today is position day for August futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery. Open interest in August is

  • Soybeans = 18,309 open, down 5,565 – no bean deliveries expected, there are 0 receipts open as of yesterday afternoon
  • Soymeal = 15,027 open, down 4,543 – no meal deliveries expected , there are 0 receipts open as of yesterday afternoon
  • Bean oil = 11,377 open, down 5,591 – expecting 300-800 deliveries, there are 3,063 receipts open as of yesterday afternoon

Weather Highlights

Normal temps will occur across the Midwest until Monday when cooler readings across the northeast half to two-thirds of the corn belt take place. Temperatures should continue to be near normal to below normal from August 10 forward. Regarding rainfall, the most likely scenario is for near normal rainfall to affect most of the Midwest during the August 2-9 period…as of today, near normal rainfall is most probable after August 9.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 11 at 954 ¼
  • CZ up 3 ¼ at 381 ¼
  • WU up 5 ¾ at 502
  • KC WU up 4 at 499 ½
  • MWU up 4 ¾ at 534 ¼
  • SMZ up 3.00 at 328.20
  • BOZ up 31 at 3093

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,314
  • CZ 18,771
  • WU 8,677
  • KC WU 776
  • MWU 338
  • SMZ 5,363
  • BOZ 7,136

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 1,781
  • Corn 7,973
  • Wheat 1,249
  • Meal 69
  • Bean Oil 211

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

1,454

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

1,251

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

497

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

305

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

142

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

123

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

117

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

80

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

22

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

16

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

550

2

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

14-Jul

21-Jul

to COT

22-Jul

23-Jul

24-Jul

27-Jul

28-Jul

29-Jul

Estimate

Corn

138913

207830

68917

-9000

0

-16000

-30000

3000

-12000

143830

Wheat

-11468

-18171

-6703

-6000

4000

-4000

-5000

5000

-8000

-32171

Soybeans

80633

80335

-298

-9000

-10000

-8000

-14000

7000

0

46335

Soymeal

57976

69527

11551

0

-6000

-3000

-8000

2000

2000

56527

Soyoil

30217

16176

-14041

-5000

-2000

-6000

-4000

3000

-5000

-2824

News

Euro down to 1.0938 vs July low of 1.0836. 

Nikkei up 1.08%

Hang Seng down .5%

Shanghai Index down 2.2%

US 2nd quarter GDP +2.3% expecting +2.7%

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +12K to 267K expecting 270K

China grain market closes = beans up 37, corn down 10, meal up 12, palm oil down 22, and bean oil down 10.

Malaysian palm oil market closed  up 12.

China to auction 5.3 MMT of corn from reserves today and tomorrow.

China bought at least 5 cargoes of beans for October shipment yesterday. 2 cargoes from the US and 3 cargoes from Brazil.

Some analysts are saying China bought 10-15 soybean cargoes this week

Hearing that another 2-3 Brazilian corn cargoes were sold into the US for Oct-Nov shipment yesterday afternoon

Tunisia bought 84,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Sept –Nov shipment

South Korea MFG bought 60,000 tons of soy meal from South America or China for November shipment

Pakistan bought 66,000tons of Argentina soybeans for Sept-Nov shipment

South Korea CJ bought 50,000 tons of Australian wheat for Dec-Jan shipment

South Korea NOFI bought 136,000 tons of optional origin corn for Jan shipment

South Korea KFMC seeks 43,100 tons of Australian wheat for December shipment

Mexico bought Russian wheat

Today is the final day of the US spring wheat tour. Final results from the Wheat Quality Council’s US spring wheat tour comes out this afternoon .

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat – ‘15/16 669,400 ‘16/17 1,000 (expecting 400 -600,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘14/15 364,900 ‘15/16 443,300 (expecting 350 -800,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘14/15 416,700 ‘15/16 899,100 (expecting 800,000 -1.1 million tons)
  • Meal – ‘14/15 71,500 ‘15/16 80,300 (expecting 50 -200,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘14/15 74,800 (expecting 10-50,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 699,400 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up 39 percent from the previous week and 86 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (200,500 MT), Mexico (116,400 MT), Taiwan (107,800 MT), Italy (78,000 MT), and Nigeria (59,500 MT). Decreases were reported for Cyprus (9,200 MT). Net sales of 1,000 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Italy. Exports of 366,700 MT were down 37 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior-4 week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (81,900 MT), Japan (61,000 MT), Taiwan (52,600 MT), Nigeria (36,000 MT), Italy (33,200 MT), the Philippines (23,400 MT), and Honduras (18,600 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 364,900 MT for delivery in 2014/2015 were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (362,200 MT, including 235,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 54,400 MT), Colombia (90,000 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,500 MT), Egypt (22,900 MT, including 21,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Guatemala (22,800 MT, including 18,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), Ireland (20,000 MT), and Mexico (15,100 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (226,900 MT) and the French West Indies (7,000 MT). Net sales of 443,300 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Mexico (279,500 MT), unknown destinations (70,600 MT), Japan (60,000 MT), and Guatemala (15,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Taiwan (10,000 MT). Exports of 1,072,700 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week, but down unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (494,900 MT), Mexico (163,500 MT), South Korea (129,300 MT), Saudi Arabia (73,600 MT), Colombia (68,500 MT), and Peru (24,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 416,700 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (300,000 MT), Japan (74,200 MT, including 18,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,400 MT), unknown destinations (42,000 MT), and Taiwan (25,800 MT). Decreases were reported for Mexico (17,300 MT), Indonesia (13,800 MT), and Canada (5,800 MT). Net sales of 899,100 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations (405,400 MT), China (346,000 MT), Mexico (75,200 MT), Russia (60,000 MT), Taiwan (12,000 MT), and Japan (500 MT). Exports of 128,600 MT were down 59 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (79,300 MT), Indonesia (16,100 MT), Mexico (9,900 MT), the Philippines (7,500 MT), and Colombia (5,000 MT).
  • Meal – : Net sales of 71,500 MT for 2014/2015 were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (40,000 MT, including 13,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Colombia (14,000 MT), Mexico (8,100 MT), Guatemala (6,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Nicaragua (6,400 MT), and Belgium (5,700 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (23,800 MT), Jamaica (5,000 MT), the French West Indies (1,200 MT), and Peru (400 MT). Net sales of 80,300 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Mexico (54,200 MT), Jamaica (10,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (7,000 MT). Exports of 195,500 MT were up 41 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Thailand (45,700 MT), Venezuela (40,000 MT), Mexico (28,400 MT), the Dominican Republic (18,700 MT), Canada (14,600 MT), and Colombia (13,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 74,800 MT for 2014/2015–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (55,000 MT), Panama (15,000 MT), and Mexico (3,100 MT). Exports of 5,800 MT were down 64 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (5,100 MT) and Canada (500 MT).

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 51
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0

o   8 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL

  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 2
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,354,507 open, up 3,716
  • Total soybeans 637,619 open, up 3,536
  • Total soymeal 390,777 open, up 3,442
  • Total bean oil 377,405 open, up 1,312
  • Total wheat 399,246 open, up 4,313
  • Total KC wheat 195,726 open, up 651

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST , expecting +55 BCF.
  • First Notice Day for August futures is tomorrow . Deliveries expected

o   Beans = 0

o   Meal = 0

o   Bean oil 300-800

  • Tomorrow is month end
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd . Delayed the report will not come out until October
  • Lanworth Midwest crop tour is Aug 3-5th
  • FC Stone will come out with 2015 US crop estimates on August 4 at about 3 pm CST
  • Informa expected to come out with their 2015 US crop estimates sometime in the week Aug 3-7th. Informa comes out at 1030 am CST.
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out August 12th at 11 am CST
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE