News From The Grain Floor 07/29/15

Weather Highlights

Yesterday’s weather was slightly warmer than normal with heat in the south…spring wheat areas were cool. We had rains in the western corn belt (and in Missouri where it was not needed). Over the next 5 days, we’ll have heat in the southwest and cool temps in the northeast (overall readings will be average to above normal). Between August 4 and 10, cool temperatures should prevail which is usually good for the crops. Only scattered showers will take place today in the southeast followed by dry conditions for a few days. Starting August 1st, rain coverage is slightly increased but the southeast belt should be left drier than normal.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 1 ¾ at 943
  • CZ down 5 at 380 ½
  • WU down 4 ¾ at 506
  • KC WU down 2 ¾ at 502
  • MWU down 3 ¼ at 537
  • SMZ up .20 at 323.90
  • BOZ down 27 at 3081

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,992
  • CZ 19,502
  • WU 6,443
  • KC WU 978
  • MWU 286
  • SMZ 3,427
  • BOZ 5,565

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 1,781
  • Corn 7,973
  • Wheat 1,249
  • Meal 69
  • Bean Oil 211

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

1,515

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

1,260

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

542

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

150

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

149

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

141

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

32

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

16

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

14-Jul

21-Jul

to COT

22-Jul

23-Jul

24-Jul

27-Jul

28-Jul

Estimate

Corn

138913

207830

68917

-9000

0

-16000

-30000

3000

155830

Wheat

-11468

-18171

-6703

-6000

4000

-4000

-5000

5000

-24171

Soybeans

80633

80335

-298

-9000

-10000

-8000

-14000

7000

46335

Soymeal

57976

69527

11551

0

-6000

-3000

-8000

2000

54527

Soyoil

30217

16176

-14041

-5000

-2000

-6000

-4000

3000

2176

News

Dollar, gold, silver, and crude oil lower. Stock market higher.

Nikkei down .13%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai Index up 3.4%

FOMC two day policy continues. Fed announcement today at 1 pm CST. 

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a draw of 1.9 MB , expecting a draw of 184,000 barrels
  • Distillates a build of 4.3 MB , expecting a build of 1.5 MB

China grain market closes = beans up 88, corn up 17, soy meal up 11, palm oil up 42, and bean oil up 46

Malaysian palm oil markets down 20.

South Korea FLC bought 68,000 tons of optional origin corn for Jan shipment

Japan bought 2,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for October shipment. Japan was seeking to buy 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender.

Japan again is seeking 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for November shipment

Colombia is seeking wheat

Mexico and Egypt are eyeing corn.

Mexico seeking soybeans for Oct shipment

Argentina Ag Min said Argentina crushed 18.5 MMT of soybeans in the first half of 2015, record, up .9% from a year ago .

Argentina Ag Min said Argentina produced 3.6 MMT of bean oil in the first half of 2015 up 3.5% from a year ago

Argentina Ag Min said Argentina produced 13.9 MMT of soy meal in the first half of 2015 up .4% from a year ago

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 2.0 MMT of grain so far this season (July 1 – 29)

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukrainian farmers have harvested 23.7 MMT of grain on 7 MH with an average yield of 3.36 TPH.

Egypt’s Supply Minister said Egypt has enough wheat stocks for the next six months. Egypt has 5.1 – 5.2 MMT of wheat in reserves.

US crop weather conditions mostly favorable.

Wheat Quality Council’s US spring wheat tour continues. Tour ends tomorrow.

  • First day of tour saw best yield prospects in 21 years
  • Average yield on 166 hard red spring wheat fields surveyed yesterday was 51.1 BPA , vs. 48.3 BPA a year ago and vs. five year average of 43.4 BPA

Moving averages

  • SX 50 at 957 ½
  • SX 100 day 955 ½
  • SMZ 50 day 318.00
  • SMZ 200 day 320.60

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes .

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 51
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 8
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 2
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,333,977 open, down 32,820
  • Total soybeans 626,339 open, down 16,347
  • Total soymeal 394,675 open, down 2,494
  • Total bean oil 376,129 open, up 4,529
  • Total wheat 394,944 open, down 12,242
  • Total KC wheat 195,056 open, down 1,863

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a build of 700,000 barrels

o   Gas unchanged

o   Distillates a build of 1.4 M barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • China to auction a total of 5.3 MMT of corn from reserves on Thursday and Friday.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST , expecting +55 BCF.
  • Position day for Aug futures is tomorrow. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • Final results from the Wheat Quality Council’s US spring wheat tour comes out tomorrow afternoon
  • Friday is month end
  • First Notice Day for August futures is Friday .
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .
  • Lanworth Midwest crop tour is Aug 3-5th
  • FC Stone will come out with 2015 US crop estimates on August 4 at about 3 pm CST
  • Informa expected to come out with their 2015 US crop estimates sometime in the week Aug 3-7th. Informa comes out at 1030 am CST.
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out August 12th at 11 am CST
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE