News From The Grain Floor 07/28/15

USDA announced 120,000 tons of sorghum sold to China. 60,000 tons for ‘14/15 delivery and 60,000 tons for ‘15/16 delivery

Weather Highlights

U.S. weather was a bit warmer than normal yesterday with rain focusing on western areas (AI, MN and SD) with spring wheat areas also receiving showers. 70% of the corn and 62% of the beans are rated good to excellent…that’s 3 points above the 30 year median for corn and at the median for soybeans. In the coming days (until August 2-3), temps will generally be above normal across the southwest third of the belt to near normal across the northeast third (so slightly warmer than yesterday’s forecast). After that, some coolness is forecasted to take place. Heavy rainfall is forecasted for northern IA and southern MN today. After that, below rainfall is expected for most areas between July 30 and August 3 with near to below rainfall again from August 4 to 10.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 10 ¼ at 943 ½
  • CZ up 1 ¾ at 385 ¼
  • WU up 4 ½ at 507
  • KC WU up 5 ¼ at 504 ½
  • MWU up 6 ¾ at 543 ¾
  • SMZ up 4.40 at 325.40
  • BOZ up 8 at 3056

Overnight volume

  • SX 24,238
  • CZ 31,834
  • WU 10,527
  • KC WU 1,282
  • MWU 733
  • SMZ 6,936
  • BOZ 9,513

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 4,301
  • Corn 5,780
  • Wheat 410
  • Meal 918
  • Bean Oil 118

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

430

1,000

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

798

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

396

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

383

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

246

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

200

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

122

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

24

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

10

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

5

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

14-Jul

21-Jul

to COT

22-Jul

23-Jul

24-Jul

27-Jul

Estimate

Corn

138913

207830

68917

-9000

0

-16000

-30000

152830

Wheat

-11468

-18171

-6703

-6000

4000

-4000

-5000

-29171

Soybeans

80633

80335

-298

-9000

-10000

-8000

-14000

39335

Soymeal

57976

69527

11551

0

-6000

-3000

-8000

52527

Soyoil

30217

16176

-14041

-5000

-2000

-6000

-4000

-824

News

Dollar, stock market, and crude oil higher. Gold and silver lower

Nikkei down .10%

Hang Seng up .6%

Shanghai Index down 1.7%

FOMC two day policy meeting starts today. Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST.

China grain markets closings = beans down 22, corn up 4, meal down 39, palm oil down 66 and bean oil down 66

Malaysian palm oil markets down 10.

South Korea MFG bought 139,000 tons of optional origin corn for Dec-Jan shipment

Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour started today. Scouts are surveying fields in the Dakotas and  Minnesota , tour ends on Thursday. Final results from tour are expected on Thursday afternoon.

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday.

Corn

  • Condition 70% good to excellent , up 1% from a week ago and vs. 75% good to excellent a year ago. Expecting 68-71% good to excellent  
  • Silking 78% vs. 55% a week ago and vs. 77% five year average
  • Dough 14% vs. 15% a year ago and vs. 17% five year average

Soybeans

  • Condition 62% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and vs. 71% good to excellent a year ago . Expecting 62-64% good to excellent
  • Blooming 71% vs. 56% a week ago and vs. 72% five year average
  • Setting Pods 34% vs. 17% a week ago and vs. 31% five year average

Spring Wheat

  • Condition 71% good to excellent, up 1% from a week ago and vs. 70% a year ago . Expecting 70-72% good to excellent
  • Harvested 2% vs. 1% a year ago and vs. 5% five year average  

Winter Wheat

  • Harvested 85% complete vs. 75% a week ago and vs. 80% five year average . Expecting 81-90% complete

Rice

  • Condition 69% good to excellent, down 3% from a week ago and vs. 71% a year ago
  • Headed 51% vs. 40% a week ago and vs. 45% five year average

Cotton

  • Condition 57% good to excellent , unchanged from a week ago and vs. 54% a year ago
  • Squaring 85% vs. 76% a week ago and vs. 88% five year average
  • Setting Bolls 44% vs. 33% a week ago and vs. 49% five year average

Moving averages

  • SX 50 at 957 ½
  • SX 100 day 955 ½
  • CZ 50 day 397
  • CZ 100 day 397 ½
  • SMZ 200 day 320.50

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes .

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 51
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 8
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 2
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,370,191 open, down 447
  • Total soybeans 643,245 open, down 6,283
  • Total soymeal 397,800 open, down 4,250
  • Total bean oil 372,282 open, down 1,421
  • Total wheat 413,867 open, up 6,010
  • Total KC wheat 197,564 open ,down 1,215

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a build of 700,000 barrels

o   Gas unchanged

o   Distillates a build of 1.4 M barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas inventory report comes out on Thursday at 930 am CST , expecting +55 BCF.
  • Position day for Aug futures is Thursday. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • First Notice Day for August futures is Friday July 31st
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .
  • Lanworth Midwest crop tour is Aug 3-5th
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out August 12th at 11 am CST
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE