News From The Grain Floor 07/27/15

Weather Highlights

Recent temperatures were warmer than normal but only by a small margin with rain especially in the western half of production areas. The heat should end Tuesday-Wednesday as a cool front passes and brings seasonable temperatures for several days. Rains should be near to below normal through the next 2 weeks. Some areas may be in need of rain in 10 to 14 days as it looks right now. See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 13 ¾
  • CZ down 10 ¾ at 392
  • WU down 6 ¼ at 505 ½
  • KC WU down 4 ¼ at 503
  • MWU down 3 at 542
  • SMZ down 5.70 at 327.70
  • BOZ down 33 at 3052

Overnight volume

  • SX 31,155
  • CZ 59,903 , CU 35,481
  • WU 10,664
  • KC WU 2,191
  • MWU 725
  • SMZ 8,797
  • BOZ 12,065

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 6,152
  • Corn 24,592
  • Wheat 999
  • Meal 127
  • Bean oil 47

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • 1,111 EOO cleared from previous

o   WU P 530 500

o   CU C 410 240

o   CU P 410 124

o   CU P 400 93

o   WU P 520 50

o   SU P 960 31

o   SU P 940 29

o   CZ  P 410 21

o   WU C 550 12

o   WU P 510 10

o   WU P 550 1

Funds:

The COT from Friday showed another surprise in corn: while CZ5 was down 21.25c in the 7-14 to 7-21 timeframe, the fund net long increased 69k lots to 207,830 as of last Tuesday…this was a matter of both additional short covering (33k lots) and fresh longs (36k lots). We are still far from the record long (372k longs) but this position as we are now over 60c from the high is a problem and explains in part the gap lower opening (2nd gap) from last night. Wheat saw a small increase in the net short but this position is currently not significant. The COT beans position was unchanged but most estimates see a reduction in this long since last Tuesday of 25k to 30k lots. The COT showed a meal position very close to record (70k longs) while the soyoil long continued to be reduced (only 16k as of Tuesday and probably close to even as of this morning).

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

14-Jul

21-Jul

to COT

22-Jul

23-Jul

24-Jul

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

138913

207830

68917

-9000

0

-16000

182830

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-11468

-18171

-6703

-6000

4000

-4000

-24171

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

80633

80335

-298

-9000

-10000

-8000

53335

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

57976

69527

11551

0

-6000

-3000

60527

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

30217

16176

-14041

-5000

-2000

-6000

3176

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News:

Nikkei down .95%

Hang Seng down 3.1%

Shanghai Index down over 8.5% , biggest one day loss since February 2007. , Traded limit down (down 10%) at one point.

China grain markets closings = beans down 16, corn down 58, meal down 40, palm oil down 68, and bean oil down 68

Malaysian palm oil markets down 38.

SGS estimated Malaysia’s July 1-25 palm oil exports at 1,178,568 tons down 15.4% from a month ago

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s July 1-25 palm oil exports at 1,152,045 tons down 17.7% from a month ago

Pakistan bought 126,000 tons of South American soybeans for Sept-Oct shipment

Pakistan seeks 120,000 tons of soybeans for Oct-Nov shipment

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for Nov-Dec shipment

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment

South Korea MFG seeks 70,000 ton of corn from the US, South America, South Africa, and or eastern Europe , for Dec-Jan shipment

Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour is this week. Surveying fields in the Dakotas and in Minnesota.

India’s weekly crop progress report as of July 24th

  • Summer crop planting is up 26% from a year ago , so far

o   Rice planted on 18.9 MH vs. 17.7 MH a year ago

o   Oilseeds planted on 14.3 MH vs. 10.8 MH a year ago

o   Coarse cereals planted on 13.6 MH vs. 8.7 MH a year ago

 Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon – no changes .

  • Wheat = 465
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 51
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 8
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 2
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,389,220 open, up 8,636
  • Total soybeans 653,882 open, down 13,939
  • Total soymeal 405,041 open, down 2,975
  • Total bean oil 376,875 open, down 79
  • Total wheat 411,854 open, down 353
  • Total KC wheat 198,197 open, down 935

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out  today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting

o   Corn conditions up 1-2% from a week ago

o   Bean conditions up 1-2% from a week ago

o   Spring wheat conditions up 1-2% from a week ago

  • FOMC two day policy meeting is tomorrow and Wednesday
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • Fed announcement on Wednesday at 1 pm CST
  • Position day for Aug futures is Thursday. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • First Notice Day for August futures is Friday July 31st
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .
  • Lanworth Midwest crop tour is Aug 3-5th
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out August 12th at 11 am CST
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE