News From The Grain Floor 07/23/15

USDA announced 40,000 tons of US bean oil sold to Venezuela for ‘14/15 shipment

USDA announced 180,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Weather Highlights

Weather was mostly dry past 24h…temps were slightly below normal with coolness in the corn belt (while plains areas were above normal as expected). In the coming days, temps will average warmer than normal across the central U.S. but temps will return to normal next Wednesday-Thursday into early August. Precipitation wise, expect a few t-storms from Friday to Tuesday with near normal rainfall affecting most of the corn belt.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX up ¾ at 996 ¼
  • CZ unchanged at 413 ½
  • WU up 5 ¾ at 522 ½
  • KC WU up 6 at 518 ¼
  • MWU up 4 ¾ at 552 ¾
  • SMZ down .20 at 342.80
  • BOZ up 14 at 3186

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,960
  • CZ 14,151
  • WU 8,938
  • KC WU 985
  • MWU 211
  • SMZ 4,897
  • BOZ 7,544

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 2,984
  • Corn 9,338
  • Wheat 3,595
  • Meal 66
  • Bean Oil 5

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

440

500

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

224

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

200

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

176

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

166

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

157

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

135

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

119

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

53

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

47

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

31

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

28

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

14

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

7

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

7-Jul

14-Jul

to COT

15-Jul

16-Jul

17-Jul

20-Jul

21-Jul

22-Jul

Estimate

Corn

89510

138913

49403

3000

1000

-8000

-16000

3000

-9000

112913

Wheat

-7744

-11468

-3724

-3000

-4000

-5000

-5000

-5000

-6000

-39468

Soybeans

68318

80633

12315

-6000

-1000

-5000

-4000

4000

-9000

59633

Soymeal

45209

57976

12767

3000

-4000

-3000

-3000

2000

0

52976

Soyoil

20471

30217

9746

-5000

-3000

0

-1000

2000

-5000

18217

News

Dollar and stock market lower. Gold, silver, and crude higher

Nikkei up .44%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai Index up 2.4%

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -26K to 255K expecting 278K

China grain markets closings = beans up 3, corn down 3, meal up 16, palm oil down 60, and bean oil down 62

Malaysian palm oil markets closed down 16

Taiwan bought 104,350 tons of US wheat for Sept-Oct shipment

Taiwan MFIG bought 130,000 tons of Brazilian corn for Oct –Dec shipment

Japan bought 141,483 tons of food wheat for Aug-Sept shipment

  • 15,150 tons of US western white wheat
  • 36,615 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 27,840 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 35,128 tons of Canadian red spring wheat
  • 26,705 tons of Australian white wheat

Hearing Mexico and Japan has been actively buying/seeking US corn

South Korea FL bought 69,000 tons of optional origin corn for Jan shipment

South Korea MFG canceled tender for 70,000 tons of optional origin corn due to high prices.

South Korea seeks 41,000 tons of optional origin rice for Oct-Feb shipment

Kotak Commodities estimated India’s 2015 soybean area at 11.5 MH up 6.5% from a year ago

Rusagrotrans estimated ‘15/16 Russian wheat exports at 20.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.0 MMT

CME lifts force majeure for Illinois River grain terminals

CWB Canadian crop tour continues. Final results from tour comes out tomorrow.

  • Second day of crop tour , spring wheat yields ranged between 12 – 59.5 BPA in parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat – ‘15/16 502,800 (expecting 200 -400,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘14/15 223,500 ‘15/16 311,400 (expecting 550 -950,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘14/15 80,800 ‘15/16 241,800 (expecting 300 -700,000 tons)
  • Meal –  ‘14/15 65,800 ‘15/16 -32,100 (expecting 75 -250,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘14/15 18,100 (expecting 0 -15,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 502,800 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up 73 percent from the previous week. Increases were reported for Chile (67,800 MT), China (60,700 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (57,200 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT), Japan (49,300 MT), Mexico (45,600 MT), and Nigeria (44,000 MT). Exports of 582,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week. The primary destinations were China (121,700 MT), Nigeria (74,200 MT), Chile (67,800 MT), the Philippines (57,200 MT), Guatemala (50,500 MT), Brazil (46,600 MT), and Taiwan (46,400 MT).
  • Corn- Net sales of 223,400 MT for delivery in 2014/2015–a marketing-year low–were down 33 percent from the previous week and 54 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Colombia (110,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from Panama and decreases of 300 MT), Japan (99,200 MT, including 94,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 59,500 MT), Portugal (83,200 MT, including 77,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (76,700 MT), South Korea (66,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,400 MT), and Egypt (65,000 MT, including 58,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (321,400 MT), Panama (60,600 MT), and New Zealand (4,200 MT). Net sales of 311,400 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Japan (147,300 MT) and Mexico (105,200 MT). Exports of 1,156,800 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (245,900 MT), Mexico (218,300 MT), South Korea (121,500 MT), Colombia (86,300 MT), Portugal (83,200 MT), and Taiwan (78,200 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 80,800 MT for 2014/2015 were up 78 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Netherlands (106,400 MT, including 98,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (33,000 MT), Indonesia (28,000 MT), Colombia (6,200 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Switzerland (3,300 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (98,500 MT) and Vietnam (2,000 MT). Net sales of 241,800 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico (74,800 MT), China (63,000 MT), unknown destinations (55,000 MT), and Japan (30,000 MT). Exports of 315,900 MT were up 87 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Netherlands (106,400 MT), Mexico (69,100 MT), Bangladesh (54,100 MT), Taiwan (41,400 MT), and Japan (17,800 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 65,800 MT for 2014/2015 were up 99 percent from the previous week, but down 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (63,000 MT, including 33,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and 30,000 MT switched from Panama), Mexico (41,400 MT), Jamaica (10,000 MT), Canada (5,500 MT), Trinidad (2,000 MT), and Japan (1,600 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (29,900 MT), Panama (28,100 MT), and Colombia (1,200 MT). Net sales reductions of 32,100 MT for 2015/2016 resulted as increases for Canada (10,800 MT), Ecuador (6,000 MT), Guatemala (4,400 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Panama (500 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (55,000 MT). Exports of 138,400 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (91,000 MT), Canada (15,200 MT), Mexico (15,100 MT), Sri Lanka (4,400 MT), Colombia (3,900 MT), and Bangladesh (3,200 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 18,100 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Panama (10,000 MT), Mexico (4,600 MT), and Venezuela (3,000 MT). Exports of 16,100 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (4,600 MT), Mexico (4,100 MT), Jamaica (4,000 MT), and Costa Rica (1,600 MT).

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 465

o   5 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL

  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 51
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 8
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454
  • KC wheat = 2
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn – 1,387,824 open, up 1,816
  • Total soybeans – 678,515 open, down 1,207
  • Total soymeal – 413,343 open, up 964
  • Total bean oil – 377,256 open, up 1,808
  • Total wheat – 410,799 open, up 1,491
  • Total KC wheat  – 199,476 open, up 335

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +70 BCF
  • July flash manufacturing PMIs come out tomorrow
  • August options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST
  • Final estimates from Canadian crop tour comes out tomorrow
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out this weekend with their Malaysian July 1-25th export estimates
  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday July 28-29th
  • Fed announcement on Wednesday July 29th at 1 pm CST
  • Position day for Aug futures is Thursday July 30th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • First Notice Day for August futures is Friday July 31st
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .
  • Lanworth Midwest crop tour is Aug 3-5th
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE