News From The Grain Floor 07/22/15

USDA announced 120,000 US beans sold to China for ’15/16 shipment

Weather Highlights

In the next 10 days, temps will average above normal in the southwest third of the corn belt with some heat stress noted while normal to slightly below normal readings are expected across the northeast third. Rain coverage overall will be much lower than recently with near or below normal precipitation most likely across the belt. Yesterday conditions were mainly dry with cooler than normal temps. 69% of the corn and 62% of the beans are currently rated good to excellent but areas from Kansas through Ohio are rated around 20% lower than the national average.

See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 7 ¾ at 997
  • CZ down 6 ¼ at 411 ¼
  • WU down 8 at 516 ¾
  • KC WU down 5 at 513
  • MWU down 6 ½ at 550
  • SMZ down 3.40 at 341.40
  • BOZ down 5 at 3230

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,515
  • CZ 21,184
  • WU 9,730
  • KC WU 1,688
  • MWU 667
  • SMZ 6,215
  • BOZ 6,808

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 9,941
  • Corn 8,894
  • Wheat 1,623
  • Meal 382
  • Bean Oil 341

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

440

6,000

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

246

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

158

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

500

16

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

2

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

7-Jul

14-Jul

to COT

15-Jul

16-Jul

17-Jul

20-Jul

21-Jul

Estimate

Corn

89510

138913

49403

3000

1000

-8000

-16000

3000

121913

Wheat

-7744

-11468

-3724

-3000

-4000

-5000

-5000

-5000

-33468

Soybeans

68318

80633

12315

-6000

-1000

-5000

-4000

4000

68633

Soymeal

45209

57976

12767

3000

-4000

-3000

-3000

2000

52976

Soyoil

20471

30217

9746

-5000

-3000

0

-1000

2000

23217

News

Dollar higher. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market lower

Nikkei down 1.19%

Hang Seng down 1.0%

Shanghai Index up .2%

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday = Crude stocks a build of 2.3 MB expecting  a draw of 2.3 MB

China grain markets closings = beans down 28, corn down 10, meal up 16, palm oil up 18, and bean oil up 16

Malaysian palm oil markets closed down 13

Indonesia has started collecting palm oil export levy on Thursday after weeks of delay .

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 55,000 corn from US or South America for November shipment

Solvent Extractors Association of India estimated India’s ‘14/15 vegetable oil imports at 13.5 MMT (record)

Iran has imposed import duty on wheat and barley

CWB Canadian crop tour continues. Final results from tour comes out on Friday.

  • First day of crop tour , yields range from 23 BPA – 69 BPA

o   Poor conditions reported in southern Alberta

o   Poor conditions reported in northwestern Saskatchewan

o   Good to excellent conditions reported in Manitoba

o   Good to excellent conditions reported in north central Saskatchewan

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 470
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 51
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 8
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,454

o   1 new rice receipt was registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 2
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,386,116 open, down 3,725
  • Total soybeans 679,864 open, up 6,716
  • Total soymeal 412,876 open, up 4,146
  • Total bean oil 375,485 open, up 1,639
  • Total wheat 409,468 open, 2,628
  • Total KC wheat 199,155 open, up 1,945

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a draw of 1.75 MB

o   Gas a build of 600,000 barrels

o   Distillates a build of 1.8 MB

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Thursday/Friday July flash manufacturing PMIs come out
  • August options expire on Friday July 24th at 115 pm CST
  • Final estimates from Canadian crop tour comes out on Friday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out this weekend with their Malaysian July 1-25th export estimates
  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday July 28-29th
  • Fed announcement on Wednesday July 29th at 1 pm CST
  • Position day for Aug futures is Thursday July 30th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • First Notice Day for August futures is Friday July 31st
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .
  • Lanworth Midwest crop tour is Aug 3-5th
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE