News From The Grain Floor 07/21/15

USDA announced 110,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

Egypt is in for wheat for September shipment

Canadian Wheat Board – Canadian crop tour begins today, ends Friday

  • 20 scouts will be traveling three routes across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

Weather Highlights

Some rains took place in parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Missouri yesterday with temps overall near normal for corn, beans and spring wheat (but Delta areas were hot). 69% of corn is rated good to excellent (unchanged) and 62% of soybeans is rated the same. Over the next 10 days, temperatures will fluctuate depending on areas: the Plains will be warmer than normal while near normal temps take place in the eastern corn belt. The hottest weather takes place at the end of this week before it returns to near normal for the end of July and early August.  Rains will take place occasionally with near normal rainfall through next Thursday…after that normal to below rainfall is expected.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 1 ¾ at 1001 ¼
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 413 ¾
  • WU down 4 ¼ 528 ½
  • KC WU down 1 ¼ at 524 ¼
  • MWU up 1 at 560
  • SMZ up 1.30 at 344.00
  • BOZ up 23 at 322

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,346
  • CZ 25,731
  • WU 9,267
  • KC WU 1,444
  • MWU 854
  • SMZ 4,545
  • BOZ 7,388

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 9,941
  • Corn 8,894
  • Wheat 1,623
  • Meal 382
  • Bean Oil 341

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

450

2,650

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

158

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

93

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

50

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

24

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

8

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

7-Jul

14-Jul

to COT

15-Jul

16-Jul

17-Jul

20-Jul

Estimate

Corn

89510

138913

49403

3000

1000

-8000

-16000

118913

Wheat

-7744

-11468

-3724

-3000

-4000

-5000

-5000

-28468

Soybeans

68318

80633

12315

-6000

-1000

-5000

-4000

64633

Soymeal

45209

57976

12767

3000

-4000

-3000

-3000

50976

Soyoil

20471

30217

9746

-5000

-3000

0

-1000

21217

News

Dollar , stock market, gold, and silver lower. Crude higher

Nikkei up .93%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai Index up .6%

China grain markets closings = beans down 11, corn up 1, meal down 1, palm oil up 32, and bean oil up 36

Malaysian palm oil markets closed up 1.4% .

Japan seeks 141,483 tons of food wheat for Aug-Sept shipment

  • 15,150 tons of US western white wheat
  • 36,615 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 27,840 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 35,128 tons of Canadian red spring wheat
  • 26,705 tons of Australian white wheat

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat for October shipment

Taiwan MFIG seeks 130,000 tons of corn from the US, South America, or South Africa for Oct-Dec shipment

China’s customs data – China’s June imports

  • Wheat = 429,074 tons up 282.23% from a year ago
  • Barley = 974,720 tons up 198% from a year ago
  • Corn = 872,919 tons up 3103% from a year ago
  • Rice = 404,782 tons up 71.86% from a year ago
  • Soybeans= 8,087,090 tons up 26.58% from a year ago

o   2,771 tons from the US

o   6,659,720 tons from Brazil

o   1,171,882 tons from Argentina

  • Rapeseed = 538,536 tons up 52.63% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil = 122,476 tons up 209% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal = 9,923 tons down 75.79% from a year ago
  • Bean oil= 91,324 tons down 5.43% from a year ago
  • Soymeal = 3,658 tons up 477% from a year ago
  • Palm oil = 551,753 tons up 40.83% from a year ago

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

Corn

  • Condition 69% good to excellent , unchanged from a week ago and vs. 76% good to excellent a year ago. Expecting 68-70% good to excellent  
  • Silking 55% vs. 27% a week ago and vs. 56% five year average

Soybeans

  • Condition 62% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and vs. 73% good to excellent a year ago . Expecting 61-63% good to excellent
  • Blooming 56% vs. 38% a week ago and vs. 56% five year average
  • Setting Pods 17% vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 17% five year average

Spring Wheat

  • Condition 70% good to excellent, down 1% from a week ago and vs. 70% a year ago . Expecting 69-71% good to excellent

Winter Wheat

  • Harvested 75% complete vs. 65% a week ago and vs. 74% five year average . Expecting 74-80% complete

Rice

  • Condition 72% good to excellent, up 1% from a week ago and vs. 71% a year ago
  • Headed 40% vs. 30% a week ago and vs. 33% five year average

Cotton

  • Condition 57% good to excellent , unchanged from a week ago and vs. 52% a year ago
  • Squaring 76% vs. 61% a week ago and vs. 81% five year average
  • Setting Bolls 33% vs. 18% a week ago and vs. 36% five year average

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 470
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 51
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 8

o   1 bean receipt was canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL

  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,453

o   16 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 2
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,390,579 open, up 22,273
  • Total soybeans 673,285 open, up 1,264
  • Total soymeal 408,811 open, up 1,453
  • Total bean oil 373,921 open, up 1,433
  • Total wheat 408,732 open, up 1,710
  • Total KC wheat 197,207 open, up 1,883

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Thursday/Friday July flash manufacturing PMIs come out
  • August options expire on Friday July 24th at 115 pm CST
  • Final estimates from Canadian crop tour comes out on Friday
  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday July 28-29th
  • Fed announcement on Wednesday July 29th at 1 pm CST
  • Position day for Aug futures is Thursday July 30th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • First Notice Day for August futures is Friday July 31st
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .
  • Lanworth Midwest crop tour is Aug 3-5th
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE