News From The Grain Floor 07/20/15

Weather Highlights

Over the last 24 hours, rainfall affected parts of Kansas and some wet areas in Missouri/Ohio with mostly cool temps. In the next 10 days, temperatures will fluctuate from cool through Thursday to warm at the end of the week. Main point is that we will have above temps in the plains with near to below ones in the eastern belt until the end of the month. Heat stress if any will be limited to Kansas/Nebraska. Through late week, we’ll have some rains from the central plains into the southern corn belt and northern delta.  For the longer term forecast, a drier and seasonably-cooler pattern at least temporarily begins late next week.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 15 ½ at 991 ¼
  • CZ down 9 at 422 ¼
  • WU down 10 at 544
  • KC WU down 11 ½ at 535
  • MWU down 9 ¼ at 565 ½
  • SMZ down 5.20 at 342.50
  • BOZ down 15 at 3201

Overnight volume

  • SX 19,492
  • CZ 33,801
  • WU 9,276
  • KC WU 863
  • MWU 253
  • SMZ 8,765
  • BOZ 7,118

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 9,941
  • Corn 8,894
  • Wheat 1,623
  • Meal 382
  • Bean Oil 341

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

271

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

191

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

80

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

37

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

7-Jul

14-Jul

to COT

15-Jul

16-Jul

17-Jul

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

89510

138913

49403

3000

1000

-8000

134913

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-7744

-11468

-3724

-3000

-4000

-5000

-23468

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

68318

80633

12315

-6000

-1000

-5000

68633

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

45209

57976

12767

3000

-4000

-3000

53976

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

20471

30217

9746

-5000

-3000

0

22217

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold , and silver lower

Japan markets are closed today for holiday

Hang Seng unchanged

Shanghai Index up .9%

China grain markets closings = beans down 39, corn down 6, meal down 60, palm oil up 8, bean oil down 24

Malaysian palm oil markets closed down 3.

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s July 1-20th palm oil exports at 907,627 tons down 16.1% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek Agri Service estimated Malaysia’s July 1-20th palm oil exports at 907,574 tons down 15.5% from a month ago

Talk/reports from last week China bought several cargoes of South American soybeans for Sept –Dec shipment

Safras E Mercado Brazilian estimates

  • ‘15/16 soybean planting area estimated at 32.9 MH (record) vs. ‘14/15 area of 31.7 MH
  • ‘15/16 bean crop estimated at 99.8 MMT (record) vs. ‘14/15 crop of 95.5 MMT
  • ‘15/16 corn summer area estimated at 4.1 MH down 9.7% from a year ago
  • ‘15/16 corn winter area estimated at 10.2 MH up 7.8% from a year ago
  • ‘15/16 total corn crop estimated at 89.2 MMT vs. ‘14/15 crop of 85.6 MMT

Taiwan seeks 104,350 tons of US wheat for Sept-Oct shipment

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2015 wheat crop at 56.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 57.0 MMT due to dryness.

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2015 total grain crop at 96.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 98.0 MMT

Russia exported 434,000 tons of grain between July 1-15th , including 200,000 tons of wheat, down 57% from a year ago

As of July 15th Russia harvested 18.7 MMT of grain vs. 22.2 MMT of grain a year ago

Based on a Bloomberg survey Russia’s 2015 wheat crop estimated at 57.4 MMT vs. 2014 wheat crop of 59.1 MMT

Several Russian industry sources said grain exports from Russia could rise by the end of July after the Customs Service introduced an easier to navigate system for tax payments on sales abroad –Reuters

Linn Group estimated 2015 US bean yield at 44.1 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 46.0 BPA

Linn Group estimated 2015 US corn yield at 162.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 166.8 BPA

There were 13 rice deliveries with the date at 7/14/15

COPA said for the week ending July 15th Canadian crushers crushed 168,513 tons of canola up 35.2% from a week ago

COPA said for the week ending July 15th Canadian crushers crushed 29,278 tons of beans up 109% from a week ago

Alberta’s weekly crop progress report showed overall good to excellent ratings increased by 4% from a week ago

  • Canola = 25.4% good to excellent
  • Wheat = 32.4% good to excellent

FranceAgriMer weekly French crop progress report for the week ending July 13th

  • Soft wheat condition 75% good to excellent unchanged from the week before and vs. 72% good to excellent a year ago
  • Soft wheat harvest is 38% complete vs. 15% the week before and vs. 4% a year ago
  • Winter barley condition 86% good to excellent unchanged from the week before and vs. 73% good to excellent a year ago
  • Durum wheat condition 77% good to excellent unchanged from the week before and vs. 61% good to excellent a year ago
  • Spring barley 65% good to excellent down 1% from a week before and vs. 66% good to excellent a year ago
  • Corn condition 67% good to excellent down 4% from the week before and vs. 84% good to excellent a year ago

Indian Farm Ministry weekly crop progress report for the week ending July 17th

  • Rice planted on 13.2 MH so far vs. 12.7 MH a year ago
  • Oilseeds planted on 12.7 MH so far vs. 3.8 MH a year ago
  • Cotton planted on 9.3 MH so far vs. 5.6 MH a year ago
  • Coarse cereals planted on 10.2 MH so far vs. 4.8 MH a year ago

Moving averages

  • SX 20 day 1001 ¼
  • CZ 20 day 422 ¼
  • WU 200 day 545
  • KC WU 50 day 547
  • KC WU 100 day 548 ½
  • SMZ 20 day 337.80
  • BOZ 20 day 3296
  • BOZ 100 day 3246
  • BOZ 200 day 3257

 Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon

  • Wheat = 470
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =264
  • Ethanol = 57
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 9
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,437

o   13 new rice receipts were registered Friday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 2
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,368,983 open, down 828
  • Total soybeans 672,275 open, down 595
  • Total soymeal 407,417 open, up 3,850
  • Total bean oil 372,608 open, down 161
  • Total wheat 407,079 open, up 1,530
  • Total KC wheat 195,334 open, up 2,514

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST .

o   Expecting soybean good to excellent conditions to be steady to up 1% from a week ago

o   Expecting corn good to excellent conditions to be steady to up 1% from a week ago

  • Canadian Wheat Board – Canada crop tour starts tomorrow and ends on Friday July 24
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Thursday/Friday July flash manufacturing PMIs come out
  • August options expire on Friday July 24th at 115 pm CST
  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday July 28-29th
  • Fed announcement on Wednesday July 29th at 1 pm CST
  • Position day for Aug futures is Thursday July 30th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • First Notice Day for August futures is Friday July 31st
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .
  • Lanworth Midwest crop tour is Aug 3-5th
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE