News From The Grain Floor 07/16/15

Weather Highlights

Weather conditions are very similar to yesterday. On Wednesday, we had rains in the central Plains to the western Corn belt…corn and beans in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa benefited from these except some of the wettest southern Iowa areas. In the coming week, most areas average near to warmer normal temps in most of the corn belt except for the southwest third of the central U.S. Rain coverage will be widespread with normal coverage of 0.75” to 1.50” with some areas with 1.00” to 3.00” in the central/north. As a result, most corn and soybeans areas stay moist to too wet while spring wheat conditions are currently adequate.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 8 ¾ at 1024 ½
  • CZ up 6 ¾ at 447
  • WU  up 4 at 570 ¾
  • KC WU up 3 at 562
  • MWU up 5 ½ at 595
  • SMZ up 3.60 at 353.90
  • BOZ up 26 at 3228

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,566
  • CZ 29,342
  • WU 8,160
  • KC WU 1,426
  • MWU 579
  • SMZ 7,920
  • BOZ 6,939

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 4,241
  • Corn 6,715
  • Wheat 2,388
  • Meal 199
  • Bean Oil 2

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201508

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

2,000

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

146

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

144

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

121

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

91

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

91

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

49

 

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

30-Jun

7-Jul

to COT

8-Jul

9-Jul

10-Jul

13-Jul

14-Jul

15-Jul

Estimate

Corn

-9214

89510

98724

3000

10000

12000

15000

-14000

3000

118510

Wheat

-22413

-7744

14669

0

2000

-2000

-2000

-2000

-3000

-14744

Soybeans

69632

68318

-1314

4000

12000

5000

5000

-3000

-6000

85318

Soymeal

35423

45209

9786

2000

7000

3000

2000

0

3000

62209

Soyoil

38823

20471

-18352

3000

5000

2000

3000

-3000

-5000

25471

 

News

Dollar , stock market, and crude oil higher. Gold and silver lower

Nikkei up .67%

Hang Seng up .4%

Shanghai Index up .5%

ECB left interest rates unchanged at .05%

ECB president is holding a press conference now.

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -15K to 281K expecting 285K

China grain markets closings = beans down 58, meal down 27, corn up 34, palm oil  down 78, and bean oil 76

Malaysian palm oil markets were only open for a half day . Palm oil closed down 6. Malaysian palm oil markets are closed tomorrow for holiday

Talk/Reports China has bought as many as 25 bean cargoes from South America over the past 2 weeks for Oct-Nov shipment

Reports China bought 2 cargoes of Argentine beans yesterday for Sept-Oct shipment

Japan bought 137,847 tons of wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia for Sept shipment

Argentina authorizes the export of an additional 4.0 MMT of corn for the ‘14/15 season , on top of the 11.5 MMT already authorized

Strategie Grains EU crop estimates

  • 2015 EU soft wheat crop estimated at 140.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 141.6 MMT
  • 2015 EU corn crop estimated at 66.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 67.4 MMT
  • 2015 EU barley crop estimated at 57.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘15/16 EU soft wheat exports estimated at 26.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.7 MMT

Indonesia will officially begin charging an export levy on palm oil to help finance domestic biodiesel programs

India’s Monsoon rainfall is 14% below normal for the week ending 7/15/15

Correction from yesterday’s afternoon recap : FI sold 17,000 Sept short dated corn 380-420 put spreads at 7-8 ¼ (not bought) also FI sold 15,000 Sept short dated soybean 880-900 put spreads at .625 credit (not bought)

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat = ‘15/16 291,500 tons (expecting 300 -500,000 tons)
  • Corn = ‘14/15 331,100 ‘15/16 325,100 (expecting 475 -825,000 tons)
  • Beans = ‘14/15 45,500 ‘15/16 507,000 (expecting 150 -550,000 tons)
  • Meal = ‘14/15 33,000 ‘15/16 39,200 (expecting 125 -300,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 3,600    (expecting 0-15,000 tons)

Deliveries

  • Beans = 2 with the date at 7/14/15, ADM House stopped 2
  • Corn = 132 with the date at 7/14/15 , ADM House stopped 34
  • Rice = 6 with the date at 7/10/15

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 470
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =353

o   350 corn receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon by ADM

  • Ethanol = 57
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 97
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,414

o   6 rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 10

o   6 KC wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +88 BCF
  • Malaysian palm oil markets are closed tomorrow for public holiday
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Monday surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out with their Malaysian July 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .
  • Lanworth Midwest crop tour is Aug 3-5th
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE