News From The Grain Floor 07/15/15

NOPA’s June crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • Soybean Crush – average estimate 141.478 MB (if realized that would be the second biggest June crush on record vs. 2007 record of 141.583 MB) , range of estimates are 134.746 – 146.50 MB. In May 2015 soybean crush was 148.416 MB and in June 2014 soybean crush was 118.718 MB.
  • Bean Oil Stocks – average estimate 1.562 billion lbs., range of estimates are 1.403 – 1.650 billion lbs. In May 2015 bean oil stocks were 1.578 billion lbs. and in June 2014 bean oil stocks were 1.847 billion lbs.
  • Meal Exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In May 2015 meal exports were 551,146 tons and in June 2014 meal exports were 388,112 tons.

CME reinstates force majeure on Illinois river floods. Shipping stations unable to load due to high water levels. US Coast Guard closed a 50-mile stretch of the Illinois River to all traffic yesterday .

Weather Highlights

Recent weather included rain over the Ohio river with rain as well in the western half of the central Plains….temperatures were slightly above normal for the third straight day. Dry weather would be ideal across the southeast half of the corn belt because of all the recent rains while the northwest half could benefit from rain. For the coming days, above normal temps take place in most of the Midwest until Sunday. Seasonable weather follows from the northern plains through the corn belt with above normal temps across the southwest third of the central U.S. Rainfall should be at least near normal in most of the corn belt.  See maps below.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 6 ¼ at 1018 ¾
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 436 ½
  • WU  down 7 at 564
  • KC WU down 4 ½ at 556 3/4
  • MWU down 3 ¼ at 588
  • SMZ down 1.90 at 346.40
  • BOZ down 21 at 3260

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 16,039
  • CZ 35,632
  • WU 13,120
  • KC WU 1,352
  • MWU 550
  • SMZ 7,214
  • BOZ 7,655

 

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 1,984
  • Corn 7,125
  • Wheat 4,208
  • Meal 598
  • Bean Oil 42

 

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

373

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

111

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

81

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

62

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

8

 

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

30-Jun

7-Jul

to COT

8-Jul

9-Jul

10-Jul

13-Jul

14-Jul

Estimate

Corn

-9214

89510

98724

3000

10000

12000

15000

-14000

115510

Wheat

-22413

-7744

14669

0

2000

-2000

-2000

-2000

-11744

Soybeans

69632

68318

-1314

4000

12000

5000

5000

-3000

91318

Soymeal

35423

45209

9786

2000

7000

3000

2000

0

59209

Soyoil

38823

20471

-18352

3000

5000

2000

3000

-3000

30471

 

 

News

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower

 

Nikkei up .38%

Hang Seng down .3%

Shanghai Index down 3.0%

 

China’s Q2 GDP came out last night at +7.0% , expecting +6.9% and vs. Q1 GDP of +7.0%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a draw of 7.3 MB , expecting a draw of 1.2 MB

 

China grain markets closings = beans down 22, corn down 2, meal down 24, palm oil down 2 and bean oil up 14.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 4

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s July 1-15th palm oil exports at 664,641 tons down 15.1% from a month ago

 

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s July 1-15th palm oil exports at 666,132 tons down 14.6% from a month ago

 

SEA said India imported 1.02 MMT of veg oils in June up 15% from a year ago

 

China’s Stats Bureau said China’s 2015 summer grain output is at 141.0 MMT up 3.3% from 2014

 

Reports of good wheat yields in Russia

 

Ukraine Stats Office said Ukraine’s July 1st grain stocks were 7.9 MMT up 13% from a year ago . Including

  • Wheat stocks were 3.2 MMT
  • Barley stocks were 1.5 MMT
  • Corn stocks were 2.9 MMT

 

Ukraine Stats Office said Ukraine’s July 1st sunflower seed stocks at 1.0 MMT down 34% from a year ago

 

Ukraine Stats Office said Ukraine’s July 1st wheat stocks were 3.2 MMT , barley stocks 1.5 MMT , corn stocks 2.9 MMT, sunflower seed stocks 1.0 MMT down 34% from a year ago

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 5 with the date current
  • Bean oil 227 with the date at 7/04/15
  • Rice 42 with the date at 7/10/15
  • Corn 341 with the date current
  • Beans 97 with the date current

o   House ADM stopped 62

o   House Term stopped 33

  • KC Wheat 8 with the date at 7/01/15

o   House ADM stopped 8

  • Wheat 37 with the date at 7/08/15
  • No soy meal

 

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 470

o   2 new wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =703

o   281 corn receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Ethanol = 57
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 97

o   97 new bean receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  1. 88 out of CGB Utica IL
  2. 9 out of CIRM Chicago IL
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,408

o   4 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 16

o   2 KC wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,348,934 open, up 2,933
  • Total soybeans – 676,521 open, up 3,752
  • Total soymeal – 402,657 open, up 2,446
  • Total bean oil – 376,381 open, up 868
  • Total wheat – 407,271 open, up 2,093
  • Total KC wheat – 192,074 open, up 282

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST .Expecting

o   Crude a draw of 2.75 MB

o   Gas a build of 375,000 barrels

o   Distillates a build of 1.46 MB

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Indonesia to impose palm oil export tax tomorrow  
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +88 BCF
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .
  • Pro Farmer annual crop tour is August 16-20th

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE