News From The Grain Floor 07/14/15

Today is the last trading day for July futures. Futures expire at noon CST.

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for August shipment. Analysts said US wheat should not be close to competitive.

 

Weather Highlights

Yesterday we had very hot temps in the central plains and seasonable ones in the eastern corn belt with unneeded rain mainly for the eastern part of the corn belt. Between today and Sunday, we should have normal temps across the central U.S. with more heat across the southwest third of the central U.S. Then cooler conditions should take place before warmer conditions again return around July 24. Rains are likely through Monday across the northern half to two thirds of the central U.S. with more limited rainfall next week. With the return of warmer temps late next week, rain chances increase but it should be less wet than in early July.  See maps below.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 5 ¼ at 1033 ¼
  • CZ down 2 at 449 ¾
  • WU  up 1 ½ at 577 ¼
  • KC WU down a ¼ at 567
  • MWU up 1 at 598 ¼
  • SMZ up 2.60 at 350.60
  • BOZ down 6 at 3314

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 28,947
  • CZ 27,011
  • WU 12,188
  • KC WU 1,569
  • MWU 329
  • SMZ 5,976
  • BOZ 11,659

 

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 5,048
  • Corn 9,918
  • Wheat 2,304
  • Meal 639
  • Bean Oil 21

 

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

149

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

85

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

77

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

47

 

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

30-Jun

7-Jul

to COT

8-Jul

9-Jul

10-Jul

13-Jul

Estimate

Corn

-9214

89510

98724

3000

10000

12000

15000

129510

Wheat

-22413

-7744

14669

0

2000

-2000

-2000

-7744

Soybeans

69632

68318

-1314

4000

12000

5000

5000

89318

Soymeal

35423

45209

9786

2000

7000

3000

2000

57209

Soyoil

38823

20471

-18352

3000

5000

2000

3000

33471

 

 

News

Dollar , stock market, crude oil, and silver lower. Gold higher

 

Nikkei up 1.47%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai Index down 1.2%

 

China grain markets closings = beans up 16, corn down 27, meal up 50, palm oil up 70, and bean oil up 50

 

Malaysian palm oil up 6

 

Indonesia to impose palm oil export levy on Thursday

 

Japan seeks 137,487 tons of food wheat from US , Canada, and Australia for Aug-Sept shipment

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

 

Corn

 

  • Condition – 69% good to excellent , unchanged from a week ago and vs. 76% good to excellent a year ago and five year average is 62%  Expecting steady to down 1% from a week ago.

o    IL 56% good to excellent down 5% from a week ago

o    OH 41% good to excellent down 4% from a week ago

o    IN 46% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago

o    PA 80% good to excellent down 80% from a week ago

o    WI 71% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago

o    IA unchanged from a week ago at 82%

  • Silking – 27% vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 34% five year average

Beans

  • Condition – 62% good to excellent , down 1% from a week ago and vs. 72% good to excellent a year ago and vs. 5 year average is 60%. Expecting steady to down 2% from a week ago.

o    IL 48% good to excellent down 4% from a week ago

o    IN 42% good to excellent down 4% from a week ago

o    OH 42% good to excellent down 3% from a week ago

o    KY 78% good to excellent down 3% from a week ago

o    MO 32% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago

o    IA unchanged from week ago

  • Emerged – 96% vs. 93% a week ago and vs. 100% five year average
  • Blooming – 38% vs. 21% a week ago and vs. 37% five year average
  • Setting pods – 6% vs. 8% a year ago and vs. 7% five year average

 Spring Wheat

  • Condition – 71% good to excellent, up 1% from a week ago and vs. 70% a year ago. Expecting steady to down 1% from a week ago.

 Winter Wheat

  • Harvested – 65% vs. 55% a week ago and vs. 68% five year average . Expecting 64-69% complete.

Rice

  • Condition – 71% good to excellent, up 1% from a week ago and vs. 70% good to excellent a year ago
  • Headed – 30% vs. 25% a week ago and vs. 22% five year average

 Cotton

  • Condition – 57% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and vs. 53% a year ago
  • Squaring – 61% vs. 48% a week ago and vs. 70% five year average
  • Setting bolls – 18% vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 24% five year average

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil = 158 with the date current
  • Corn = 575 with the date at 7/10/15
  1. ADM house stopped 350
  • KC wheat = 6 with the date at 7/01/15
  1. ADM house stopped 6
  • Rice = 57 with the date at 7/08/15
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No Chicago wheat
  • No soybeans
  • No soy meal

 

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 468
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =984

o   123 corn receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon by ADM.

  • Ethanol = 57
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,404

o   14 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 18
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,345,970 open, up 19,734
  • Total soybeans – 671,617 open, down 379
  • Total soymeal – 400,210 open, down 1,281
  • Total bean oil – 375,592 open, up 6,317
  • Total wheat – 405,658 open, up 4,064
  • Total KC wheat – 193,104 open, up 1,933

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST  
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • NOPA June crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Soybean Crush – average estimate 141.478 MB (if realized that would be the second biggest June crush on record vs. 2007 record of 141.583 MB) , range of estimates are 134.746 – 146.50 MB. In May 2015 soybean crush was 148.416 MB and in June 2014 soybean crush was 118.718 MB.
    • Bean Oil Stocks – average estimate 1.562 billion lbs., range of estimates are 1.403 – 1.650 billion lbs. In May 2015 bean oil stocks were 1.578 billion lbs. and in June 2014 bean oil stocks were 1.847 billion lbs.
    • Meal Exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In May 2015 meal exports were 551,146 tons and in June 2014 meal exports were 388,112 tons.
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE