News From The Grain Floor 07/13/15

USDA announced 121,927 tons of corn sold to Mexico . 91,445 tons for ‘15/16 and 30,482 tons for ‘16/17

Weather Highlights

Temperatures for the next two weeks are likely to average warmer than normal in the southwest third of the central U.S. while the northeast third averages near normal temps…hottest temps are forecasted for today, July 17-19 period and late next week. 1.00” to 2.00” of rain affects much of the northern Plains and the northeast half of the Corn Belt over the next week. Moisture remains adequate in most of the corn belt. See below for maps

Overnight closes

  • SX down 6 ¾ at 1015 ¼
  • CZ down 1 at 444
  • WU  down 4 ¾ at 571 ¼
  • KC WU down 4 at 568 ½
  • MWU down 5 ½ at 602
  • SMZ down 3.20 at 344.40
  • BOZ down 21 at 3264

Overnight volume

  • SX 18,642
  • CZ 26,721
  • WU 9,350
  • KC WU 1,344
  • MWU 303
  • SMZ 4,324
  • BOZ 9,316

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 5,840
  • Corn 8,202
  • Wheat 1,271
  • Meal 168
  • Bean Oil 1

Funds:

The latest COT saw another large wave of short covering in corn that many including us didn’t see…CZ5 closed at 431.50 on June 30th and 433.00 on July 7th. So 1.50c move during the COT to COT timeframe so the huge short covering was met by commercial selling (62k new shorts and 23k less longs from the commercials in this COT). In wheat, funds covered 4k shorts and added 10k fresh longs so the updated COT position is short 8k lots. The soybean position was pretty much unchanged at long 68k lots. Meal added 10k longs (now long 45k contracts) and the soyoil position was reduced by 18k lots to 20k longs.

 

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

30-Jun

7-Jul

to COT

8-Jul

9-Jul

10-Jul

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

-9214

89510

98724

3000

10000

12000

114510

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-22413

-7744

14669

0

2000

-2000

-7744

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

69632

68318

-1314

4000

12000

5000

89318

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

35423

45209

9786

2000

7000

3000

57209

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

38823

20471

-18352

3000

5000

2000

30471

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News:

Dollar

Nikkei up 1.57%

Hang Seng up 1.3%

Shanghai Index up 2.4%

Greece reaches deal with creditors , avoids euro exit.

China grain markets closings = beans down 18, corn unchanged, meal up 21, palm oil up 20, and bean oil up 34

Malaysian palm oil up 4.

Algeria seeks optional origin milling wheat for October shipment . A couple weeks ago Algeria bought 700,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat

China customs data showed China imported 8.09 MMT of beans in June vs. 6.13 MMT in May

China customs data showed China imported 690,000 tons of veg oils in June up 46.8% from May

JCI Intelligence estimated China’s July bean imports at 8.3 MMT

JCI estimated China’s August bean imports at 7.4 MMT

Cofeed estimated China’s August bean imports at 8.5 MMT  

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 227 with the date current
  • Corn 601 with the date current
  • KC wheat 2 with the date at 7/01/15
  • Wheat 111 with the date current

 Receipt Registrations as of Friday’s afternoon

  • Wheat = 468
  • Oats = 18
  • Corn =1,107
  • Ethanol = 57
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,390

o   6 new rice receipts registered Friday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 18

o   7 KC wheat receipts canceled Friday afternoon

  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of Friday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,326,853 open, up 7,922
  • Total soybeans – 672,332 up 2,755
  • Total soymeal – 401,157 open, down 2,975
  • Total bean oil – 369,332 open, up 8,188
  • Total wheat – 401,675 open, down 1,706
  • Total KC wheat – 191,225 open, up 1,639

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on today at 3 pm CST
  • Last trading day for July futures is tomorrow. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST  
  • NOPA’s June crush report comes out Wednesday at 11 am CST.
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE