News From The Grain Floor 07/10/15

USDA July supply and demand and crop production report comes out today at 11 am CST . See below for estimates for the report

  • Analysts said WASDE has only changed its US soybean yield in July twice , in 1993 and 2012, both of these years were severe weather years , floods in 1993 and drought in 2012, crop ratings were much lower. – Reuters

USDA announced 136,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 delivery

Weather Highlights

Over the last 24h we got rains in parts of IL, MO and OH…temps warmed up but were still below normal. The cool temps will end sometime tomorrow with 3 to 5 days of heat  before conditions return to normal Tuesday/Wednesday. Starting July 17, near and above normal temps are likely with some rounds of heat across the southwest third to half of corn and soybeans. Rain coverage should be widespread in that period with wettest areas from the northern plains through the heart of the corn belt with 1.75” to 3.50” likely in the next 10 to 14 days.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 8 ¼ at 1024
  • CZ up 3 at 442
  • WU up 7 at 585
  • KC WU up 6 ½ at 585 ¾
  • MWU up 4 ¾ at 623 ¾
  • SMZ up 3.20 at 350.50
  • BOZ up 31 at 3308

Overnight volume

  • SX 16,033
  • CZ 19,382
  • WU 8,465
  • KC WU 1,011
  • MWU 124
  • SMZ 5,722
  • BOZ 6,913

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 3,142
  • Corn 6,871
  • Wheat 510
  • Meal 1,338
  • Bean Oil 2,669

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

521

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

506

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

510

2

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

2

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

510

1

 

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

23-Jun

30-Jun

to COT

1-Jul

2-Jul

6-Jul

7-Jul

8-Jul

9-Jul

Estimate

Corn

-156267

-9214

147053

4000

5000

3000

1000

3000

10000

16786

Wheat

-79276

-22413

56863

-12000

2000

5000

-4000

0

2000

-29413

Soybeans

20211

69632

49421

-8000

2000

-3000

-10000

4000

12000

66632

Soymeal

27182

35423

8241

0

-2000

-2000

-2000

2000

7000

38423

Soyoil

26528

38823

12295

-5000

3000

0

-4000

3000

5000

40823

 

 

News

Dollar and gold lower. Stock market, silver, and crude lower

Nikkei down .38%

Hang Seng up 2.1%

Shanghai Index up 4.5%

China grain markets closings = beans up 146, corn up 22, meal up 85, palm oil up 158, and bean oil up 186

Malaysian palm oil closed .2% higher

CME Group lifts force majeure for most Illinois River grain terminals.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out this morning with their June data report:

  • June palm oil stocks at 2.151 MMT vs. average estimate of 2.12 MMT and down 4.33% from May
  • June palm oil output at 1.764 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.77 MMT and down 2.58% from May
  • June palm oil exports at 1.697 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.68 MMT and up 5.19% from May

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s July 1-10th palm oil exports at 316,492 tons down 32.5% from a month ago

SGS estimated Malaysia’s July 1-10th palm oil exports at 308,875 tons down 34.7% from a month ago

Analysts are estimating Canada’s canola crop at 13.25-13.50 MMT , with below 13.0 million estimates if rains do not come soon. USDA previous estimate was 14.8 MMT

European Commission estimated ‘15/16 EU grain crop at 307.0 MMT down 7% from ‘14/15 record crop . Including

  • ‘15/16 soft wheat crop estimated at 139.9 MMT
  • ‘15/16 corn crop estimated at 68.4 MMT
  • ‘15/16 barley crop estimated at 58.1 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min said as of today Ukrainian farmers have harvested 3.3 MMT of grain vs. 8.7 million harvested a year ago.

Heat concerns in the Ukraine and Russia, analysts said they may lower their grain crop forecasts if hot weather continues   

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 wheat exports at 10.832 MMT, six year high and up 17% from ‘13/14.

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 rapeseed exports at 1.911 MMT down 14% from ‘13/14.

Thailand is suffering from the worst drought in more than ten years

China started to sell cotton from reserves today

Moving averages

  • Sept KC wheat 200 day 579 ½
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 3319
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3322
  • Dec bean oil 100 day 3244
  • Dec bean oil 200 day 3260

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 259 with the date current
  • Corn 679 with the date current

o   House ADM stopped 123

  • Wheat 70 with the date at 7/06/15
  • Minneapolis wheat 17 with the date current

o   House Term stopped 17

  • Rice 12 with the date current
  • No KC wheat
  • No soybeans
  • No soy meal

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 468
  • Oats = 18

o   7 oat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Corn =1,107
  • Ethanol = 57
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,384

o   7 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 25

o   4 KC wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. A , KS

  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,320,319 open, up 12,459
  • Total soybeans – 669,481 open, up 5,746
  • Total soymeal – 404,710 open, up 1,757
  • Total bean oil – 361,183 open, up 154
  • Total wheat – 403,412 open, up 4,058
  • Total KC wheat – 189,604 open, up 1,716

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Last trading day for July futures is Tuesday
  • NOPA’s June crush report comes out Wednesday at 11 am CST.
  • USDA will restart monthly census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .

Estimates for today’s USDA report

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (22 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.440 BB, range of estimates are 13.140 -13.945 BB. USDA June estimate was 13.630 BB and ‘14/15 US final corn production was 14.216 BB
  • Corn yield (22 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 165.391 BPA, range of estimates are 163.0-169.0 BB. USDA June estimate was 166.8 BPA and ‘14/15 US final corn yield was 171.0 BPA
  • Soybean production (22 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.776 BB, range of estimates are 3.580-3.885 BB. USDA June estimate was 3.850 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean production was 3.969 BB
  • Soybean yield (22 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 44.964 BPA, range of estimates are 43.5-46.1 BB. USDA June estimate was 46.0 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean yield was 47.8 BPA

Estimates for ‘15/16 US wheat production:

  • All wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 2.148 BB, range of estimates are 2.070 -2.197 BB. USDA June estimate was 2.121 BB and US ‘14/15 all wheat production was 2.026 BB.
  • All winter wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.480 BB, range of estimate are 1.430 -1.520 BB. USDA June estimate was 1.505 BB and US ‘14/15 all winter wheat production was 1.378 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .885 BB, range of estimates are .845- .900 BB. USDA June estimate was .887 BB and US ‘14/15 hard red winter wheat production was .738 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .400 BB, range of estimates are .378-.418 BB. USDA June estimate was .414 BB and US ‘14/15 soft red winter wheat production was .455 BB.
  • White winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .198 BB, range of estimates are .190 -.206 BB. USDA June estimate was .204 BB and US ‘14/15 white winter wheat production was .184 BB.
  • Other spring wheat (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .599 BB, range of estimates are .545 -.634 BB. US ‘14/15 other spring wheat production was .595 BB
  • Durum (15 analysts surveyed) Average estimate .077 BB, range of estimates are .052 -.090 BB. US ‘14/15 durum production was .053 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.811 BB, range of estimates are 1.726 -1.880 BB. USDA June estimate was 1.876 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .287 BB, range of estimates are .251- .330 BB. USDA June estimate was .330 BB.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .861 BB, range of estimates are .695 -.947 BB. USDA June estimate was .814 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.540 BB, range of estimates are 1.263 -1.910 BB. USDA June estimate was 1.771 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .370 BB, range of estimates are .193-.450 BB. USDA June estimate was .475 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 200.34 MMT, range of estimates are 195.40 -204.00 MMT. USDA June  estimate was 200.41 MMT.
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 195.27 MMT, range of estimates are 188.00 -197.50 MMT. USDA June estimate was 197.01 MMT.
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 82.78 MMT, range of estimates are 81.20 -84.30 MMT. USDA June estimate was 83.70 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 200.41 MMT, range of estimates are 192.40-204.41 MMT . USDA June estimate was 202.40 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 192.96 MMT, range of estimates are 185.40- 197.00 MMT . USDA June estimate was 195.19 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 91.84 MMT, range of estimates are 89.00 -94.80 MMT . USDA June estimate was 93.22 MMT

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE