News From The Grain Floor 07/08/15

USDA announced 240,000 tons of new crop US beans sold to unknown

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for August shipment.

Weather Highlights

Weather will continue to be cooler than normal into Friday across the corn belt…rainfall should be widespread from Kansas to the southeast half of the corn belt with slightly lower coverage in other areas. Past Friday, we should still get widespread rainfall from the northern plains and corn belt…heat should come back next Tuesday-Wednesday with some drying taking place at that stage. For the longer term forecast, heat is probable to recur in the Plains with near normal rainfall in the northern Plains and below average rainfall in the central / southern Plains. Temperatures decrease and / or rainfall chances increase with eastward extent from the Plains.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 2 ¾ at 983
  • CZ down 1 ¼ at 431 ¾
  • WU down 8 ½ at 576 ¾
  • KC WU down 7 ¼ at 579
  • MWU down 7 at 616 ½
  • SMZ down 1.70 at 334.00
  • BOZ up 6 at 3186

Overnight volume

  • SX 21,734
  • CZ 23,571
  • WU  11,160
  • KC WU 2,081
  • MWU 347
  • SMZ 5,731
  • BOZ 9,171

Overnight option volume

  • Corn – 10,626
  • Beans – 5,391
  • Wheat – 728
  • Soymeal – 485
  • Bean oil – 53

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • 1,716 cleared

o   CU P 410 794

o   CU C 390 302

o   CU P 400 292

o   CU C 400 158

o   CZ P 400 92

o   CU C 410 61

o   CZ P 410 15

o   WU C 520 2

Funds:

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

23-Jun

30-Jun

to COT

1-Jul

2-Jul

6-Jul

7-Jul

Estimate

Corn

-156267

-9214

147053

4000

5000

3000

1000

3786

Wheat

-79276

-22413

56863

-12000

2000

5000

-4000

-31413

Soybeans

20211

69632

49421

-8000

2000

-3000

-10000

50632

Soymeal

27182

35423

8241

0

-2000

-2000

-2000

29423

Soyoil

26528

38823

12295

-5000

3000

0

-4000

32823

News:

Dollar , stock market and silver higher. Gold and crude lower

Nikkei down 3.14%

Hang Seng down 5.8%

Shanghai Index down 5.9%

Greece formally requested a three year bailout from the Euro zone’s rescue fund.

Chinese commodity and equities markets are falling sharply

China grain markets closings = beans down 37, corn down 32, meal up 13, palm oil down 46, and bean oil down 34

Malaysian palm oil closed down 57.

Hearing China has bought 20-30 cargoes of South American beans over the last week

Philippines bought 30,000 tons of Argentina soymeal for November shipment

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s July bean imports at 7.6 MMT

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s July rapeseed imports at 171,916 tons

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s July palm oil imports at 411,844 tons

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s July bean oil imports at 146,049 tons

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week June 27-July 3 total crush volume at 1,595,250 tons down 6.64% from a week ago
  • For the week June 27-July 3 total crush capacity utilization at 50.86% down 3.62% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014 – July 3, 2015) crush volume at 55,847,400 tons up 4.32% from a year ago
  • Total 2015 (Jan 1- July 3) crush volume at 37,080,0000 tons up 6.16% from a year ago
  • As of July 3rd total bean imported stocks at 5.3892 MMT vs. 5.3012 MMT a week ago and down 10.71% from a year ago
  • Estimated July bean imports at 8.396 MMT
  • Estimated August bean imports at 8.0 MMT
  • Estimated September bean imports at 6.5 MMT
  • Estimated October bean imports at 5.5 MMT

Soybean Processors Association of India said India exported 2,098 tons of soymeal in June vs. 2,637 tons a year ago.

MDA Weather Services said rain in northwest Canadian Prairies later this week will be too light to improve moisture or crop conditions.

Deliveries

  • Bean oil = 822 with the date current

o   House Rand issued 130

  • Rice = 75 with the date current
  • Corn = 1,003 with the date at 7/06/15
  • Ethanol = 17 with the date at 7/06/15
  • KC wheat = 6 with the date at 7/01/15

o   House ADM stopped 4

  • Oats = 8 with the date at 7/01/15
  • Wheat 275 with the date at 6/26/15
  • Minneapolis wheat 18 with the date at 6/30/15

o   House Term stopped 18

  • No beans
  • No meal

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 200 day at 971
  • Sept KC wheat 200 day at 579 ½
  • Sept Minneapolis wheat 200 day at 595 ½

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 418

o   122 new receipts were registered yesterday afternoon. 100 out of The Andersons Maumee OH and 22 out of Gavilon Maceo KY

  • Oats = 25
  • Corn =1,107
  • Ethanol = 57
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,063

o   141 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Volga SD

  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,371
  • KC wheat = 41
  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,323,348 open, up 9,472
  • Total soybeans – 665,302 open, down 7,056
  • Total soymeal – 397,905 open, up 879
  • Total bean oil – 365,460 open, down 6,179
  • Total wheat – 394,090 open, up 3,239
  • Total KC wheat – 185,894 open, up 65

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude unchanged

o   Gas unchanged

o   Distillates a build of 1.0 MB

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +87 BCF
  • China to start selling cotton from reserves on Friday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s July 1-10th palm oil exports on Friday
  • USDA July supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for July futures is Tuesday July 14th.
  • NOPA’s June crush report comes out Wednesday July 15th at 11 am CST.
  • USDA will restart monthly Census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE