News From The Grain Floor 07/07/15

Weather Highlights:

Looking at maps first, it looks slightly warmer than yesterday in the longer term forecast but no extreme heat…precipitation forecast is a bit mixed with Iowa precip forecasted a bit lower than normal for example. The forecast has cool conditions until Friday in most of the corn belt…good rains will affect the southeast third to half of the corn belt. Then temperatures turn warmer with rain chances over the July 11-17 period limited to the northern plains and northern/eastern corn belt. Past July 18, near to above normal temps and near to below rainfall is the current best guess.  See maps below.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 4 1/2 at 1010 1/4
  • CZ down 7 1/4 at 427 3/4
  • WU down 9 1/4 at 586 1/4
  • KC WU down 8 at 584 1/2
  • MWU down 5 3/4 at 625 1/2
  • SMZ down 1.00 at 339.30
  • BOZ down 26 at 32.86

Overnight volume

  • SX 23,137
  • CZ 34,043  
  • WU 14,063
  • KC WU 1,448
  • MWU 312
  • SMZ 5,744
  • BOZ 9,087

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 6,670
  • Beans 4,604
  • Wheat 954
  • Soymeal 135
  • Bean oil 32

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

1,155

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

841

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

309

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

210

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

145

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

135

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

520

18

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

500

17

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

510

16

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

2 

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

 

23-Jun

30-Jun

to COT

1-Jul

2-Jul

6-Jul

Estimate

Corn

-156267

-9214

147053

4000

5000

3000

2786

Wheat

-79276

-22413

56863

-12000

2000

5000

-27413

Soybeans

20211

69632

49421

-8000

2000

-3000

60632

Soymeal

27182

35423

8241

0

-2000

-2000

31423

Soyoil

26528

38823

12295

-5000

3000

0

36823

USDA WASDE Preview

Below are the U.S S&D’s in corn, soybeans and wheat ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE and following last week’s stocks and acreage reports. Most expect the USDA to cut yields at least slightly in corn and beans (to respectively 165 and 45 is our guess) as crop conditions were slightly better in corn yesterday (+1% at 69% good to excellent) and stable in soybeans (63% good to excellent). For the corn S&D, we expect lower beginning stocks for the 15/16 balance sheet with t he crop slightly lower…so total supply could be about 275 million bushels lower…some minor adjustments to demand should take place (exports down 100?) and as a result ending stocks should come lower towards 1.650 billion bushels. For the soybeans S&D, at this stage the yield could be cut 1 to 2 bushels per acre (we are guessing one bushel at 45)…beginning stocks will be lower following last week’s number…other small adjustments should take the carry out for 15/16 below 400 million bushels. The key of course here is the acres and the pending revision from the government on August 12th: if the yield idea continues to decline and the acres do drop 2 or 3 million, it will show on paper a carry out closer to 200 million bushels early in the season. Finally in wheat, the U.S S&D should show more bearish numbers than in the June WASDE: higher acreage, higher yield and potentially lower demand could take that carry out for 15/16 above 900 million bushels.

US CORN S&D

USDA

USDA

USDA (June)

USDA (July?)

SEP/AUG

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2015/16

Planted Acres

95.4

90.6

89.2

88.9

Harvested Acres

87.5

83.1

81.7

81.4

% Harvested

91.7

91.7

91.6

91.6

 

 

 

 

 

Yield

158.1

171

166.8

165

 

 

 

 

 

Carry In

821

1232

1876

1800

Production

13829

14216

13630

13431

Imports

36

25

25

25

Total Supply

14686

15472

15531

15256

 

 

 

 

 

Feed and Residual

5034

5250

5300

5300

FSI

6503

6522

6560

6500

     Ethanol

5134

5175

5200

5200

Exports

1917

1825

1900

1800

Total Use

13454

13597

13760

13600

 

 

 

 

 

Carry out

1232

1876

1771

1656

Stock to Use Ratio

9.16

13.80

12.87

12.18

US SOYBEANS S&D

USDA

USDA

USDA (June)

USDA (July?)

SEP/AUG

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2015/16

Planted Acres

76.8

83.7

84.6

85.1

Harvested Acres

76.3

83.1

83.7

84.1

% Harvested

99.3

99.3

98.9

98.8

 

 

 

 

 

Yield

44

47.8

46

45

 

 

 

 

 

Carry In

141

92

330

290

Production

3358

3969

3850

3785

Imports

72

30

30

30

Total Supply

3570

4091

4210

4105

 

 

 

 

 

Crush

1734

1815

1830

1830

Exports

1647

1810

1775

1750

Seed

97

98

92

92

Residual

0

38

38

38

Total Use

3478

3761

3734

3710

 

 

 

 

 

Carry out

92

330

475

395

Stock to Use Ratio

2.65

8.77

12.72

10.63

US WHEAT S&D

USDA

USDA

USDA (June)

USDA (July?)

JUNE/MAY

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2015/16

Planted Acres

56.2

56.8

55.4

56.1

Harvested Acres

45.3

46.4

48.0

48.5

% Harvested

80.6

81.7

86.6

86.5

 

 

 

 

 

Yield

47.1

43.7

44.2

45

 

 

 

 

 

Carry In

718

590

712

752

Production

2135

2026

2121

2182.5

Imports

169

148

140

120

Total Supply

3021

2764

2973

3055

 

 

 

 

 

Food

955

960

967

960

Seed

77

77

72

72

Feed and Residual

223

160

195

190

Exports

1176

855

925

900

Total Use

2431

2052

2159

2122

 

 

 

 

 

Carry out

590

712

814

933

Stock to Use Ratio

24.27

34.70

37.70

43.94

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE