News From The Grain Floor 07-09-15

Weather Highlights

The cool conditions will continue today but heat should appear Friday from the southwest to the northeast…heat should last 3 to 5 days across the southwest half of the ventral U.S. Temps will return to normal around mid next week except in the plains. Next weekend, (July 18-22), temps should warm up again from west to east. Precipitation should continue to be frequent in most of the Midwest through July 15…following that, the consensus is for near to above rainfall to affect the eastern corn belt. Soil moisture is adequate still in most of the Midwest.  See maps below.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 16 ½ at 1004 ¾
  • CZ up 3 ½ at 437 ¾
  • WU up 4 ½ at 582
  • KC WU up 2 ½ at 585 ½
  • MWU up 6 ¾ at 625 ¾
  • SMZ up 4.40 at 341.20
  • BOZ up 46 at 3251

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 26,752
  • CZ 18,395
  • WU  7,325
  • KC WU 848
  • MWU 221
  • SMZ 7,225
  • BOZ 12,940

 

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 2,955
  • Corn 5,624
  • Wheat 448
  • Meal 761
  • Bean oil 400

 

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

410

953

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

400

323

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

163

201509

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

87

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

37

201509

CORN OPTIONS

P

515

7

 

 

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

23-Jun

30-Jun

to COT

1-Jul

2-Jul

6-Jul

7-Jul

8-Jul

Estimate

Corn

-156267

-9214

147053

4000

5000

3000

1000

3000

6786

Wheat

-79276

-22413

56863

-12000

2000

5000

-4000

0

-31413

Soybeans

20211

69632

49421

-8000

2000

-3000

-10000

4000

54632

Soymeal

27182

35423

8241

0

-2000

-2000

-2000

2000

31423

Soyoil

26528

38823

12295

-5000

3000

0

-4000

3000

35823

 

 

News

Dollar , stock market, crude oil, gold, and silver higher this morning

 

Nikkei up .60%

Hang Seng up 3.7%

Shanghai Index up 5.8% , biggest one day percentage gain since March 2009

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +15K to 297K , expecting 275K

 

Argentina and Brazilian markets are closed today for holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow

 

China grain markets closings = beans up 83, corn up 36, meal down 11, palm oil down 86, and bean oil down 78

 

Malaysian palm oil closed up 35

 

Hearing China is seeking/buying South American soybeans for Sept-October shipment

 

Japan bought 155,971 tons of food wheat for Aug-Sept shipment . Breakdown

  • 15,821 tons of US western white wheat
  • 18,555 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 26,725 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 68,910 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 25,960 tons of Australian white wheat

 

CONAB came out this morning with their Brazilian crop estimate updates

  • ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 96.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 96.04 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 bean crop of 86.1 MMT
  • ‘14/15 corn crop estimated at 81.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 80.21 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 80.1 MMT
  • 2015 wheat crop estimated at 7.01 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.76 MMT

 

Cool wet conditions in the US threatening soybean production

 

Michael Cordonnier estimated US 2015 soybean yield at 43.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 45.0 BPA

 

Michael Cordonnier estimated US 2015 corn yield at 163.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 165.0 BPA

 

China sold 18,000 tons of wheat at auction. They offered 842,000 tons

 

Soybean Processors Association of India seeks customs duty hike on crude edible oil imports to 25%

 

Soybean Processors Association of India seeks India customs duty hike on refined edible oil to 30%

 

Egypt’s supplies minister said Egypt has enough wheat reserves to last until the end of January

 

Ukraine Ag Min said he may cut his 2015 grain forecast if hot weather continues . Last month Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2015 grain crop at 60.0 MMT and estimated grain exports at 34.0 MMT

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat – ‘14/15 345,900 ‘16/17 1,100 (expecting 300 -500,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘14/15 535,200 ‘15/16 149,000 (expecting 600 -950,000 tons)
  • Beans- ‘14/15 41,400 ‘15/16 201,100 (expecting 60-500,000 tons)
  • Meal- ‘14/15 101,700 ‘15/16 111,000 (expecting 100 -300,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘14/15 1,400 (expecting 0-17,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 345,900 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were down 5 percent from the previous week. Increases were reported for Indonesia (90,000 MT), Mexico (65,400 MT), Sri Lanka (60,000 MT), Thailand (52,100 MT), Guatemala (30,200 MT), and Colombia (26,400 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from Panama). Decreases were reported for Panama (25,000 MT), Nigeria (18,400 MT), and unknown destinations (12,600 MT). Net sales totaling 1,100 MTfor 2016/2017 were reported for Italy. Exports of 268,800 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week. The primary destinations were Mexico (50,200MT), Guatemala (35,300 MT), Brazil (32,000 MT), Japan (30,400 MT), Nigeria (30,100 MT), and Colombia (26,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 535,200 MT for delivery in 2014/2015 were down 10 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (171,400 MT, including 107,200 MT late reporting and decreases of 9,000 MT), South Korea (125,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Saudi Arabia (70,800 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (63,800 MT, including 58,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (52,400 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Colombia (43,600 MT, including 27,900 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (139,500 MT) and Mexico (17,900 MT). Net sales of 149,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations (50,800 MT), Mexico (47,100 MT), Colombia (40,000 MT), Japan (10,200 MT), and Honduras (1,000 MT). Exports of 966,200 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (208,200 MT), Mexico (141,800 MT), Peru (83,700 MT), Taiwan (76,100 MT), Egypt (71,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (70,800MT), and South Korea (65,100 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 41,400 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Netherlands (72,600 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), Indonesia (17,600 MT, including decreases of 10,000 MT), Costa Rica (15,300 MT, including 14,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (13,800 MT, including decreases of 2,500 MT), and Colombia (4,400 MT). Net sales reductions were reported for unknown destinations (75,000 MT), Japan (5,600 MT), and Canada (4,700 MT). Net sales of 201,100 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico (61,000 MT), unknown destinations (55,600 MT), Indonesia (41,500 MT), Japan (35,000 MT), and Taiwan (8,000 MT). Exports of 202,200 MT were down 30 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Netherlands (75,600 MT), Japan (34,000 MT), Mexico (20,400 MT), Costa Rica (20,300 MT), Turkey (16,500 MT), and Morocco (10,600 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 101,700 MT for 2014/2015 were up 17

percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (57,600 MT), Thailand (45,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (22,300 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Guatemala (14,600 MT, including 15,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 500 MT), Canada (9,500 MT), and Belgium (6,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (58,900 MT) and Peru (8,300 MT). Net sales of 111,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for Ecuador (90,000 MT) and Mexico (11,000 MT). Exports of 225,500 MT were up 38 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (92,000 MT), Mexico (23,100 MT), Colombia (20,600 MT), Guatemala (14,600 MT), Morocco (13,900 MT), and Canada (12,200 MT).

  • Bean oil – Net sales of 1,400 MT for 2014/2015 were down 74 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (900 MT), the Dominican Republic (400 MT), and Vietnam (100 MT). Exports of 3,500 MT were down 54 percent from the previous week and 77 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (3,100 MT), Trinidad (100 MT), and Canada (100 MT).

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil = 717 with the date current
  • Rice = 44 with the date at 7/07/15
  • Corn = 982 with the date current
  • KC wheat = 9 with the date at 7/01/15

o   House ADM stopped 7

  • Wheat = 232 with the date at 6/26/15

o   House Bunge issued 50

  • No beans
  • No soymeal

 

 Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 468

o   50 new wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon . Out of Bunge Blytheville, AR

  • Oats = 25
  • Corn =1,107
  • Ethanol = 57
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,063
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,377

o   6 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • KC wheat = 29

o   12 KC wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. A, KS

  • Minneapolis wheat =  722

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,308,544 open, down 14,550
  • Total soybeans – 663,698 open, down 1,706
  • Total soymeal – 403,152 open, up 5,252
  • Total bean oil – 361,405 open, down 3,957
  • Total wheat – 399,431 open, up 5,587
  • Total KC wheat – 188,097 open, up 2,183

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +87 BCF
  • China to start selling cotton from reserves tomorrow  
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow morning with their June data report . Based on a Reuters survey expecting

o   June palm oil stocks average estimate 2.12 MMT down 5.4% from May

o   June palm oil output average estimate 1.77 MMT down 2.2% from May

o   June palm oil exports average estimate 1.68 MMT up 4.3% from May

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s July 1-10th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • USDA July supply and demand and crop production report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for July futures is Tuesday July 14th.
  • NOPA’s June crush report comes out Wednesday July 15th at 11 am CST.
  • USDA will restart monthly Census crush reports, hearing first report comes out August 3rd .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE