News From The Grain Floor 06/12/15

Egypt GASC is in for wheat again for July shipment. Yesterday Egypt GASC bought 60,000 tons of Russian wheat for July shipment.

Informa updated acreage estimates for 2015 have been pushed into early next week, Informa was supposed to be out today.

Weather highlights

  • Rains Favor U.S. Southern & Eastern Midwest in Next Week, Northwest in 6-15 Day
  • Wet  U.S. Southern Plains 1-5 Day Pattern Threatens Wheat Damage
  • 6-15 Day Models Diverge Further in Canada, Still Leaning Drier
  • FSU Heat Threat Eases Next Week, Light Showers Cross Wheat

Overnight closes

  • SN down a ¼ at 939 ¾
  • CN down 1 ½ at 355
  • WN up 1 ¼ at 505 ½
  • KC WN up 3 at 526 ¼
  • MWN up 1 ¾ at 564 ½
  • SMN up .30 at 313.70
  • BON up 16 at 3345

Overnight volume

  • SN 18,721
  • CN 21,231
  • WN 9,131
  • KC WN 1,838
  • MWN 250
  • SMN 4,625
  • BON 10,581

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 2,079
  • Corn 1,547
  • Wheat 735
  • Meal 448
  • Bean oil 150

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • 1,577 EOO CLEARED FROM PREVIOUS
    • CN C 380 342
    • CU C 410 259
    • WN P 530 250
    • CU C 400 110
    • CN P 400 93
    • CU P 410 86
    • WN C 510 76
    • WN C 520 74
    • CN C 390 68
    • WN C 500 67
    • WU P 520 42
    • CU C 390 28
    • CU P 390 22
    • CN P 390 15
    • WN P 510 14
    • CN C 400 12
    • CU P 400 9
    • CN P 380 7
    • WN P 500 3

Funds:

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

26-May

2-Jun

to COT

3-Jun

4-Jun

5-Jun

8-Jun

9-Jun

10-Jun

11-Jun

Estimate

Corn

-173566

-176210

-2644

0

6000

-2000

6000

0

-14000

0

-180210

Wheat

-99060

-96325

2735

-3000

7000

-2000

6000

5000

-13000

-6000

-102325

Soybeans

-92991

-79374

13617

-3000

7000

-5000

5000

4000

-3000

-5000

-79374

Soymeal

-12481

-11017

1464

2000

4000

-2000

3000

4000

-4000

0

-4017

Soyoil

32757

61174

28417

4000

-1000

2000

-3000

-3000

0

-4000

56174

 

News: 

Dollar up. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market lower.  

Nikkei up .12%

Hang Seng up 1.4%

Shanghai Index up .9%

China grain markets closings = beans down 74, corn down 8, meal down 49, palm oil down 54, and bean oil down 58.

Malaysian palm oil closed down 16.

Indonesia to impose $50 per ton levy on palm oil exports as part of new biodiesel regulation from June 15th.

Solvent Extractors Association of India May imports

  • India imported 1.4 MMT of veg oils in May vs. 1.1 MMT in April
  • India imported 907,347 tons of palm oil in May vs. 725,088 tons in April
  • India imported 289,266 tons of bean oil in May vs. 186,849 tons in April

Tunisia seeks 84,000 tons of soft wheat, 59,000 tons of durum wheat, and 75,000 tons of feed barley. Optional origins for July-Sept shipment .

Rosario Grain Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 soybean crop at 60.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 59.6 MMT

Rosario Grain Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 25.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.7 MMT

Rosario Grain Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 wheat planting area at 3.5 MH  

Plains Grains report said Texas wheat crop is 23% harvested , Oklahoma wheat crop is 17% harvested, and Kansas wheat crop is 1% harvested.

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 18
  • Oats = 12
  • Corn =25
  • Ethanol = 22
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,205
    • 64 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Volga SD
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,466
  • KC wheat = 48
  • Minneapolis wheat =  522

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn – 1,464,319 open, down 4,117
  • Total soybeans – 744,581 open, up 6,336
  • Total soymeal – 406,223 open, up 4,803
  • Total bean oil – 418,459 open, down 3,813
  • Total wheat – 441,669 open, up 4,974
  • Total KC wheat – 162,675 open, up 2,328

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Informa comes out next week with their US 2015 acreage estimate updates. See below for previous estimates
  • Trading at Settlement (TAS) trades start date has been delayed one week. The new effective date is Sunday June 14th , for trade date June 15th.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA May crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST.
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Ramadan begins June 18th
  • USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report Tuesday June 30th
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Previous estimates from Informa were:

  • 2015 US corn area was estimated at 88.737 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 89.1 MA
  • 2015 US bean area was estimated at 87.185 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 84.635 MA
  • 2015 US all wheat area was estimated at 55.947 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 55.4 MA
  • 2015 US spring wheat area estimated at 13.219 MA  vs. USDA March estimate of 12.97 MA
  • 2015 US all cotton area was estimated at 9.334 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 9.549 MA

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group NYSE, and T-Storm Weather