News From The Grain Floor 06/10/15

 

USDA June supply and demand and crop production report comes out today at 11 am CST. See below for report estimates and / or see attachment for recap table.

USDA announced 128,500 tons of US beans sold to unknown. 8,500 tons for ‘14/15 shipment and 120,000 tons for ‘15/16 shipment

Weather highlights

  • 90s in W. Midwest Yesterday Ease Next 2 Days, Hotter Risk South Next Week
  • Extensive Rains Next 10 Days Aid Midwest Moisture, Slow SW Soy Seeding
  • Rains Favor Far N. Can. Prairies in 1-5 Day, West/Far South Next Week
  • Rains Aid W. Europe Wheat Over Next Week But Limited in NE Europe

Overnight closes

  • SN up 4 ½ at 956
  • CN unchanged at 365
  • WN up 2 ½ at 534 ¾
  • KC WN up 3 ¾ at 552
  • MWN up 4 at 586 ¾
  • SMN down .30 at 316.20
  • BON up 22 at 3415

Overnight volume

  • SN 14,578
  • CN 34,388
  • WN 13,265
  • KC WN 1,507
  • MWN 528
  • SMN 6,954
  • BON 12,656

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 2,478
  • Corn 3,187
  • Wheat 3,409
  • Meal 508
  • Bean oil 25

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • 408 EOO cleared from previous
    • WU P 520 – 140
    • CN P 400 – 100
    • WN C 500 – 78
    • CU P 400 – 56
    • WN C 510 – 12
    • CU P 410 – 10
    • CN P 380 – 7
    • CU P 390 – 5

Funds: 

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

26-May

2-Jun

to COT

3-Jun

4-Jun

5-Jun

8-Jun

9-Jun

Estimate

Corn

-173566

-176210

-2644

0

6000

-2000

6000

0

-166210

Wheat

-99060

-96325

2735

-3000

7000

-2000

6000

5000

-83325

Soybeans

-92991

-79374

13617

-3000

7000

-5000

5000

4000

-71374

Soymeal

-12481

-11017

1464

2000

4000

-2000

3000

4000

-17

Soyoil

32757

61174

28417

4000

-1000

2000

-3000

-3000

60174

 

News:

Dollar

Nikkei down .25%

Hang Seng down 1.1%

Shanghai Index down .1%

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a draw of 6.7 MB, expecting a build of 1.72 MB
  • Gas a draw of 3.87 MB, expecting a build of 280,000 barrels
  • Distillates a draw of 38,000 barrels

China grain markets closings = beans down 15, corn down 5, meal unchanged, palm oil down 8, and bean oil down 6.

China to auction 5.3 MMT of corn from reserves tomorrow and Friday. Last week China sold 332,000 tons of corn at last week’s auction

Malaysian palm oil closed down 27

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out this morning with their May palm oil data report

  • May palm oil stocks at 2.24 MMT vs. average estimate of 2.14 MMT , range of estimates were 2.072 – 2.330 MMT. April palm oil stocks were 2.184 MMT
  • May palm oil output at 1.81 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.79 MMT , range of estimates were 1.74 – 1.83 MMT. April palm oil output was 1.693 MMT
  • May palm oil exports at 1.61 MMT  vs. average estimate of 1.61 MMT , range of estimates were 1.481 – 1.70 MMT. April palm oil exports were 1.175 MMT

SGS estimated Malaysia’s June 1-10th palm oil exports at 473,307 tons up 1.9% from a month ago

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s June 1-10th palm oil exports at 468,975 tons up 2.2% from a month ago

Correction from yesterday’s afternoon recap: Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2015 soybean crush (not crop)  at 39.2 MMT up 6% from 2014. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2015 soybean crop at 98.6 MMT.

Taiwan seeks 97,420 tons of US wheat for Aug-Sept shipment

Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 23,000 tons of US corn and bought 12,000 US beans for October shipment

Israel bought optional origin feed wheat and optional origin corn for July – Sept shipment. Volume is unclear.

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown:

  • For the week May 30 – June 5 total crush volume at 1,548,500 tons down 6.26% from a week ago
  • For the week May 30 – June 5 total crush capacity utilization at 49.37% down 3.47% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014 – June 5, 2015) crush volume at 49,171,500 tons up 3.11% from a year ago
  • Total 2015 (Jan 1 – June 5) crush volume at 30,404,100 tons up 4.56% from a year ago
  • As of June 5th total imported soybean stocks at 4.6379 MMT vs. 4.439 MMT a week ago and down 23.29% from a year ago
  • Estimated June bean imports at 8.596 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.536 MMT
  • Estimated July bean imports at 8.30 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.0 MMT
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 7.50 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.0 MMT
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 5.50 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Michael Cordonnier’s weekly crop estimates

  • Estimated 2015 US corn yield at 167.0 BPA, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated 2015 US bean yield at 46.0 BPA, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop at 94.5 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop at 79.0 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated ‘14/15 Argentina bean crop at 60.0 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated ‘14/15 Argentina corn crop at 24.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Russia bought 45,360 tons of intervention grain . Total bought since Sept 30th = 1,080,520 tons. Russian government plans to buy 5.0 MMT of grains from farmers this season.

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 32.7 MMT of grain between July 1 – June 9 vs. 31.6 MMT a year ago .

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 36.8 MMT vs. 32.4 MMT in ‘13/14

Today is the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long July positions forward. Roll ends tomorrow.

Moving averages

  • SN 20 day 940 ½
  • SN 50 day 960 ½
  • CN 20 day 360 ½
  • CN 50 day 369 ½
  • WN 200 day 537 ½
  • KWN 100 day 542 ½
  • MWN 200 day 592
  • SMN 50 day 311.50
  • SMN 100 day 318.60
  • BON 20 day 3324

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 18
  • Oats = 12
  • Corn =25
  • Ethanol = 22
    • 8 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,269
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,466
  • KC wheat = 48
  • Minneapolis wheat =  522

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn – 1,458,999 open, down 4,936
  • Total soybeans – 744,826 open, down 752
  • Total soymeal – 400,801 open, down 3,028
  • Total bean oil – 422,856 open, up 1,455
  • Total wheat – 444,185 open, up 2,808
  • Total KC wheat – 161,409 open, down 1,724

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 400,000 barrels
    • Distillates a build of 700,000 barrels
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow morning with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. See below for previous estimates
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +113 BCF.
  • Informa comes out on Friday at 1030 am CST with their 2015 US acreage estimates. See below for previous estimates
  • Trading at Settlement (TAS) trades start date has been delayed one week. The new effective date is Sunday June 14th , for trade date June 15th.
  • Ramadan begins June 18th
  • USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report Tuesday June 30th
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Upcoming report estimates

USDA June supply and demand and crop production report comes out today at 11 am CST.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US wheat production:

  • All wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 2.110 BB, range of estimates are 2.050 -2.191 BB. USDA May estimate was 2.087 BB and US ‘14/15 all wheat production was 2.026 BB.
  • All winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.474 BB, range of estimate are 1.445 -1.515 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.472 BB and US ‘14/15 all winter wheat production was 1.378 BB.
  • Hard red winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .856 BB, range of estimates are .820 – .885 BB. USDA May estimate was .853 BB and US ‘14/15 hard red winter wheat production was .455 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .414 BB, range of estimates are .398 -.426 BB. USDA May estimate was .203 BB and US ‘14/15 soft red winter wheat production was .455 BB.
  • White winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .204 BB, range of estimates are .198 -.225 BB. USDA May estimate was .203 BB and US ‘14/15 white winter wheat production was .184 BB.

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .712 BB, range of estimates are .685 -.734 BB. USDA May estimate was .709 BB
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.859 BB, range of estimates are 1.775 -1.964 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.851 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .339 BB, range of estimates are .302- .360 BB. USDA May estimate was .350 BB.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks:

  • Wheat (16 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .798 BB, range of estimates are .672 -.876 BB. USDA May estimate was .793 BB
  • Corn (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.779 BB, range of estimates are 1.662 -2.053 BB.
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .487 BB, range of estimates are .433-.569 BB . USDA May estimate was .500 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 200.29 MMT, range of estimates are 196.90- 201.15 MMT. USDA May estimate was 200.97 MMT.
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 192.52 MMT, range of estimates are 188.00 -194.00 MMT. USDA May estimate was 192.50 MMT.
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 85.80 MMT, range of estimates are 84.20 – 86.71 MMT. USDA May estimate was 85.54 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 201.72 MMT, range of estimates are 194.00 -205.72 MMT . USDA May estimate was 203.32 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 191.90 MMT, range of estimates are 187.00 -199.70 MMT . USDA May estimate was 191.94 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 96.00 MMT, range of estimates are 90.25 -97.33 MMT . USDA May estimate was 96.22 MMT

Estimates for ‘14/15 South American crop production:

  • Argentina corn crop (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 25.10 MMT, range of estimates are 23.70 -29.80 MMT. USDA May estimate was 24.50 MMT
  • Argentina bean crop (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 59.18 MMT, range of estimates are 57.75 -61.90 MMT. USDA May estimate was 58.50 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 78.70 MMT, range of estimates are 76.50 -81.10 MMT. USDA May estimate was 78.00 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 94.76 MMT, range of estimates are 93.70- 95.50 MMT. USDA May estimate was 94.5 MMT.

CONAB comes out tomorrow morning with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates.

Previous estimates from CONAB were:

  • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop was estimated at 95.07 MMT in May.
  • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop was estimated at 78.59 MMT in May
  • 2015 Brazilian wheat crop was estimated at 7.05 MMT in May

Informa comes out on Friday at 1030 am CST with their 2015 US acreage estimate updates

Previous estimates from Informa were:

  • 2015 US corn area was estimated at 88.737 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 89.1 MA
  • 2015 US bean area was estimated at 87.185 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 84.635 MA
  • 2015 US all wheat area was estimated at 55.947 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 55.4 MA
  • 2015 US spring wheat area estimated at 13.219 MA  vs. USDA March estimate of 12.97 MA
  • 2015 US all cotton area was estimated at 9.334 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 9.549 MA

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group NYSE, and T-Storm Weather