News From The Grain Floor 06/09/15

Weather highlights

  • Very Wet 10-Day for Much of C. Plains Wheat, Midwest Corn/Soy
  • Southeast Corn Slightly Wetter Today/11-15 Day, But Still Hot 6-15 Day
  • Low 90s in W. Canada Yesterday, Minor Rain Relief Fri. Into Next Week
  • Drier Trends in Russian Wheat/Corn Areas Next Week

Overnight closes

  • SN up 1 at 945 ¼
  • CN down 2 ½ at 362 ¾
  • WN down 3 at 525
  • KC WN down 2 ¼ at 542 ¼
  • MWN down 1 ¾ at 578 ¾
  • SMN up 1.40 at 310.90
  • BON up 5 at 3415

Overnight volume

  • SN 11,350
  • CN 17,275
  • WN 12,068
  • KC WN 746
  • MWN 263
  • SMN 5,786
  • BON 9,830

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 2,642
  • Corn 793
  • Wheat 1,363
  • Meal 180
  • Bean oil 12 

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • 4,980 EOO cleared from previous
    • SMN P 300 –  4,000
    • CN P 400 –  303
    • WN C 530 – 131
    • WN C 500 – 119
    • CN C 380 – 105
    • WU P 510 – 98
    • WU C 520 – 73
    • WN C 510 – 30
    • CN C 400 – 29
    • WN C 520 – 16
    • WU C 510 – 14
    • WU P 520 -12
    • CZ P 420 -10
    • CN C 410 – 9
    • CZ P 400 – 9
    • WN C 490 – 7
    • CN P 380 – 6
    • CZ P 410 – 6
    • WU P 500 – 2
    • WU C 540 – 1

Funds:

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

26-May

2-Jun

to COT

3-Jun

4-Jun

5-Jun

8-Jun

Estimate

Corn

-173566

-176210

-2644

0

6000

-2000

6000

-166210

Wheat

-99060

-96325

2735

-3000

7000

-2000

6000

-88325

Soybeans

-92991

-79374

13617

-3000

7000

-5000

5000

-75374

Soymeal

-12481

-11017

1464

2000

4000

-2000

3000

-4017

Soyoil

32757

61174

28417

4000

-1000

2000

-3000

63174


News:

Dollar , gold, silver, and crude oil higher. Stock market lower

China’s May CPI came out last night at +1.2% , expecting +1.3%

Nikkei down 1.76%

Hang Seng down 1.2%

Shanghai Index down .4%

China grain markets closings = beans up 9, corn up 12, meal up 7, palm oil down 106, bean oil down 62

Malaysian palm oil closed down 16.

Mexico seeking US corn for Aug-Sept shipment

Philippines seeks 59,550 MMT of feed wheat for Sept-Oct shipment

Taiwan seeks 23,000 US corn and 12,000 US soybeans for October shipment

Japan seeks 117,680 tons of food wheat for August shipment. Breakdown

  • 13,155 tons of US western white wheat
  • 18,275 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 48,420 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 37,830 tons of Australian white wheat

China’s State Administration of Grain said China’s 2015 wheat crop will be slightly above 2014’s wheat crop

China’ State Administration of Grain said China’s corn stocks have reached a record high.

Russia Grain Union estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 95-96 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Russia Grain Union estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 grain exports at 30.0 MMT unchanged from ‘14/15 estimate

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 98-105 MMT up 1.0 MMT from previous estimate

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2015 rapeseed crop at 1.932 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.754 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 2.198 MMT

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long July positions forward. Roll ends on Thursday.

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon:

Corn

  • Condition – 74% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and vs. 75% good to excellent a year ago . Expecting 74-75% good to excellent.
  • Emerged – 91% vs. 84% a week ago and vs. 90% five year average

Beans

  • Condition – 69% good to excellent, first soybean rating of the season, vs. 74% good to excellent a year ago . Expecting 69-75% good to excellent.
  • Planting – 79% complete vs. 71% a week ago and vs. 81% five year average. Expecting 80-85% complete
  • Emerged – 64% vs. 49% a week ago and vs. 63% five year average

Spring wheat

  • Condition – 69% good to excellent, down 2% from a week ago , and vs. 71% good to excellent a year ago . Expecting 70-72% good to excellent
  • Emerged – 97% vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 80% five year average

Winter wheat

  • Condition – 43% good to excellent, down 1% from a week ago and vs. 30% good to excellent a year ago . Expecting 44-45% good to excellent.
  • Headed – 91% vs. 84% a week ago and vs. 84% five year average
  • Harvested – 4% vs. 8% a year ago and vs. 12% five year average . Expecting 3-5% complete

Rice

  • Condition – 68% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and vs. 69% good to excellent a year ago
  • Emerged – 95% vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 92% five year average

Cotton

  • Condition – 50% good to excellent , first rating of the season, and unchanged from a year ago
  • Planting – 81% complete vs. 61% a week ago and vs. 89% five year average
  • Squaring – 7% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 10% five year average

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 18
  • Oats = 12
  • Corn =25
  • Ethanol =30
    • 2 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Monroe , WI
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,269
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,466
  • KC wheat = 48
  • Minneapolis wheat =  522

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn – 1,463,903 open, up 7,312
  • Total soybeans – 746,444 open, down 805
  • Total soymeal – 402,949 open, down 2,001
  • Total bean oil – 421,595 open, down 2,110
  • Total wheat – 441,8804 open, up 4,001
  • Total KC wheat – 163,110 open, down 153

Upcoming report estimates

USDA June supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Wednesday at 11 am CST.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US wheat production:

  • All wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 2.110 BB, range of estimates are 2.050 -2.191 BB. USDA May estimate was 2.087 BB and US ‘14/15 all wheat production was 2.026 BB.
  • All winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.474 BB, range of estimate are 1.445 -1.515 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.472 BB and US ‘14/15 all winter wheat production was 1.378 BB.
  • Hard red winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .856 BB, range of estimates are .820 – .885 BB. USDA May estimate was .853 BB and US ‘14/15 hard red winter wheat production was .455 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .414 BB, range of estimates are .398 -.426 BB. USDA May estimate was .203 BB and US ‘14/15 soft red winter wheat production was .455 BB.
  • White winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) Average estimate is .204 BB, range of estimates are .198 -.225 BB. USDA May estimate was .203 BB and US ‘14/15 white winter wheat production was .184 BB.

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Wheat (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .712 BB, range of estimates are .685 -.734 BB. USDA May estimate was .709 BB
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.859 BB, range of estimates are 1.775 -1.964 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.851 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .339 BB, range of estimates are .302- .360 BB. USDA May estimate was .350 BB.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks:

  • Wheat (16 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .798 BB, range of estimates are .672 -.876 BB. USDA May estimate was .793 BB
  • Corn (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.779 BB, range of estimates are 1.662 -2.053 BB.
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .487 BB, range of estimates are .433-.569 BB . USDA May estimate was .500 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 200.29 MMT, range of estimates are 196.90- 201.15 MMT. USDA May estimate was 200.97 MMT.
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 192.52 MMT, range of estimates are 188.00 -194.00 MMT. USDA May estimate was 192.50 MMT.
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 85.80 MMT, range of estimates are 84.20 – 86.71 MMT. USDA May estimate was 85.54 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 201.72 MMT, range of estimates are 194.00 -205.72 MMT . USDA May estimate was 203.32 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 191.90 MMT, range of estimates are 187.00 -199.70 MMT . USDA May estimate was 191.94 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 96.00 MMT, range of estimates are 90.25 -97.33 MMT . USDA May estimate was 96.22 MMT

Estimates for ‘14/15 South American crop production:

  • Argentina corn crop (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 25.10 MMT, range of estimates are 23.70 -29.80 MMT. USDA May estimate was 24.50 MMT
  • Argentina bean crop (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 59.18 MMT, range of estimates are 57.75 -61.90 MMT. USDA May estimate was 58.50 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 78.70 MMT, range of estimates are 76.50 -81.10 MMT. USDA May estimate was 78.00 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (15 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 94.76 MMT, range of estimates are 93.70- 95.50 MMT. USDA May estimate was 94.5 MMT.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out Wednesday morning with their May palm oil data report.

Estimates for Malaysian May palm oil :

  • May palm oil stocks   average estimate is 2.14 MMT , range of estimates are 2.072 – 2.330 MMT. April palm oil stocks were 2.184 MMT
  • May palm oil output – average estimate is 1.79 MMT , range of estimates are 1.74 – 1.83 MMT. April palm oil output was 1.693 MMT
  • May palm oil exports – average estimate is 1.61 MMT , range of estimates are 1.481 – 1.70 MMT. April palm oil exports were 1.175 MMT

CONAB comes out on Thursday with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates.

Previous estimates from CONAB were:

  • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop was estimated at 95.07 MMT in May.
  • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop was estimated at 78.59 MMT in May
  • 2015 Brazilian wheat crop was estimated at 7.05 MMT in May

Informa comes out Thursday or Friday at 1030 am CST with their 2015 US acreage estimate updates

Previous estimates from Informa were:

  • 2015 US corn area was estimated at 88.737 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 89.1 MA
  • 2015 US bean area was estimated at 87.185 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 84.635 MA
  • 2015 US all wheat area was estimated at 55.947 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 55.4 MA
  • 2015 US spring wheat area estimated at 13.219 MA  vs. USDA March estimate of 12.97 MA
  • 2015 US all cotton area was estimated at 9.334 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 9.549 MA                        

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s June 1-10 palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out with Malaysia’s May palm oil data report tomorrow morning.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • USDA June crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . See attachment for recap table for the report
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates.
  • Informa comes out by the end of the week with their 2015 US acreage estimates.
  • Trading at Settlement (TAS) trades start date has been delayed one week. The new effective date is Sunday June 14th , for trade date June 15th.
  • Ramadan begins June 18th
  • USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report Tuesday June 30th
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group NYSE, and T-Storm Weather