News From The Grain Floor 06/04/15

Today is the first day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They will be rolling long July positions forward. Soybeans – July to Nov, Bean oil and meal – July to Dec, Corn and wheat July – September.

Weather highlights

  • Heavy Rains Persisting U.S. Central Plains/Far Southwestern Midwest, Active Pattern to Continue
  • 6-10 Day Guidance Drier in Canada, May Overstate 11-15 Day Rains Too
  • Europe Wheat Favorably Wetter in 6-10 Day, FSU Rain Still Limited

Overnight closes

  • SN down 2 ¼ at 944 ¼
  • CN down 2 ¼ at 361 ¼
  • WN down 3 ¼ at 520 ½
  • KC WN down 1 ¾ at 539 ½
  • MWN down 1 ¾ at 574
  • SMN down .50 at 305.20
  • BON up 3 at 3456

Overnight volume

  • SN 14,126
  • CN 19,956
  • WN 18,843
  • KC WN 1,561
  • MWN 291
  • SMN 4,497
  • BON 11,329

Overnight option volume

  • Beans 1,584
  • Corn 1,741
  • Wheat 2,031
  • Meal 172
  • Bean oil 27

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

530

600

201507

CORN OPTIONS C

400

584

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS C

490

525

201507

CORN OPTIONS C

390

358

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS C

510

338

201507

CORN OPTIONS C

380

327

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS C

500

252

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

490

102

201507

CORN OPTIONS P

400

72

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

510

37

201509

CORN OPTIONS P

400

33

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

500

27

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

530

22

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

500

15

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS C

520

8

201507

CORN OPTIONS P

390

8

201512

CORN OPTIONS P

410

6

201509

CORN OPTIONS P

410

1

201612

CORN OPTIONS C

430

1

Funds:

Funds Positions in Corn/Wheat/Soybeans as of early June since 2008 

  • Note it is quite unusual for early June to have funds short all 3 majors products. As of today, we estimate the combined short at 339k lots…this beats 2010 by 264k lots. 

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

19-May

26-May

to COT

27-May

28-May

29-May

1-Jun

2-Jun

3-Jun

4-Jun

Estimate

Corn

-176942

-173566

3376

-11000

8000

-4000

2000

11000

0

6000

-161566

Wheat

-84633

-99060

-14427

-4000

1000

-6000

7000

9000

-3000

7000

-88060

Soybeans

-81503

-92991

-11488

4000

-2000

7000

-4000

9000

-3000

7000

-74991

Soymeal

-13044

-12481

563

4000

-4000

0

-5000

3000

2000

4000

-8481

Soyoil

46901

32757

-14144

-3000

2000

11000

10000

-3000

4000

-1000

52757

 

News: 

Dollar, stock market, gold , and silver lower. Crude oil higher

Nikkei down .13%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index up 1.5%

US May unemployment report came out this morning

  • May nonfarm payrolls = +280K , expecting +225K vs. April nonfarm payrolls of +221K
  • May unemployment rate = 5.5% expecting 5.4% vs. 5.4% in April

OPEC oil ministers agree to keep output target unchanged at 30 million barrels a day, as expected

China grain markets closings = beans down 36, corn down 29, meal up 8, palm oil up 6, and bean oil down 30

Malaysian palm oil closed up 21

Ethiopia tenders to buy 400,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for July –Sept shipment.

Russia will not change wheat export tax formula, despite industry requests.

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 83,221 tons of oil meal in May vs. 169,607 tons a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 14,046 tons of soymeal in May vs. 8,226 tons a year ago

Today is the fourth day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They are rolling long July Chicago wheat positions into September and rolling long July 2015 KC wheat positions into July 2016.

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat = 18
  • Oats = 12
  • Corn =25
  • Ethanol =55
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,269
    • 9 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga , SD
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,466
  • KC wheat = 48
  • Minneapolis wheat =  522

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn – 1,456,026 open, down 1,831
  • Total soybeans – 747,613 open, up 5,651
  • Total soymeal – 403,846 open, up 2,580
  • Total bean oil – 418,860 open, up 197
  • Total wheat – 444,379 open, up 4,668
  • Total KC wheat – 163,100 open, up 698

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s June 1-10 palm oil exports on Wednesday June 10th
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out with Malaysia’s May palm oil data report on Wednesday June 10th
  • USDA June crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Wednesday June 10th at 11 am CST . Will email out estimates later
  • CONAB comes out on June 11th with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates.
  • Trading at Settlement (TAS) trades start date has been delayed one week. The new effective date is Sunday June 14th , for trade date June 15th.
  • Ramadan begins June 18th
  • USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report Tuesday June 30th
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE